CNBCfix - Fast Money Review

[CNBCfix Fast Money/Halftime Report Review Archive — Sept. 2023]

Now’s the time to turn to Larry Altman’s bottoming theory

Friday's (9/29) Halftime Report was essentially a Delivering Alpha Greatest Hits production (when nothing actually managed to chart on the Top 40). (Nobody had the brass to tell Judge that Delivering Alpha was a disappointment and the Ackman questions about Ukraine and whether he's a different kind of investor now were flat as a pancake, but whatever.)

Judge opened saying "Good riddance, September." Can't really argue with that.

Judge at one point told Steve Weiss that it's a "bit of a squirrelly market."

Weiss said he just talked to Dave Tepper, and, "He said, 'This is back to the future with rates. QE is done.'"

Sure, we'll believe QE is "done" ... when they haven't tried it for, oh, 10 years.

Weiss protested the market multiple being "at 19 times."

"I think the multiple goes lower," Weiss said.

Weiss continued to say the multiple is at 19, and the "average multiple" is 14 or 15, so "why should the market be at 19 when the average multiple is based upon average monetary policy." Judge cut in that "the multiple has been skewed by the performance and multiple expansion from the Magnificent 7. The equal weight multiple is not close to 19," Judge said.

"That's a very fair point," Weiss agreed.

The funny thing about this market, during the good months, it's "momentum-driven," and during the bad months, it's, omigod, all this debt and out of control stimulus and Federal Reserve and higher rates haven't begun to work their way through the economy and it's all suddenly catching up with us.

Given that, at this time of year, it's important to consider the October 2014 Halftime commentary from Larry Altman, who said markets "usually bottom around the first week and a half, 2 weeks in October, or the first week or 2 weeks in March." A while back, we checked over the past decade; it doesn't always work that way ... but most of the time, it does. That has us thinking that the September pain will linger for another week-plus, and then the stock market may be singing a different tune.

Joe’s vocabulary cooking again

Joe Terranova on Friday's (9/29) Halftime Report said we've had some "oversold conditions" for bonds and "overbought conditions" for crude.

Joe said the market now is about earnings, but if those are strong, Q4 will be "positive." But he said the returns will be in the biggest stocks, stressing investors are "gonna have to own the megacaps."

Joe said NKE has earned a "yellow light" after having a "red light," which opened the door to a discussion of China.

"Xi is just killing the economy," Steve Weiss said. Joe questioned if the China consumer is getting better while maybe the U.S. consumer "is actually going in the opposite direction."

Judge conducted a laborious and fruitless and pointless discussion about whether Ackman or Brad Gerstner is more correct about Google and AI. Weiss said, "Keep in mind, AI is really more of a dream than a fully fleshed-out, mature business."

Joe said this commodities cycle is "somewhat different" because it has "more duritibility (sic)" and once again, prompted by Judge, said "you have to go high-beta with energy" if you want to "attain" the type of return you're seeing in the spot price.

Weiss said he agrees with everything Joe says "except for 'duritibility,' because I don't know what that word is, I've never heard the word before."

Weiss is long OXY but said you don't have to do "tremendous work" in this sector "because it goes with the commodity."

Weiss said he sold FCX because he believes we'll end up in a recession, not a soft landing.

On Fast Money, Steve Grasso said that "84% of the time," if the market is up entering Q4, "you're going to be up at the end of the year. Higher. We're there."

Grasso said oil is in "backwardation," and is not moving on supply-demand but Russia-Saudi Arabia and thus its rise is "quasi-temporary," and he expects oil to fall.

Grasso also said "there's a lot of reasons to be bullish and have faith in the consumer," in part because "No one's gonna be forced to be paying back student loans because you still have an administration that's said that they're going to push for forgiveness."

Ackman says Carl is a ‘charming person to hang out with and have dinner with’

All week, Judge had us excited about the Thursday (9/28) Halftime Report that (we thought) he was going to engineer from Delivering Alpha.

It turns out that Judge was at Delivering Alpha, but the Halftime Report wasn't, as Frank Holland guest-hosted at Post 9.

Judge's big get — Bill Ackman — didn't happen until Closing Bell Overtime, actually, and they even cut away once Judge and Bill started discussing the presidential race. (Bill has sorta soured on Vivek Ramaswamy, apparently, as being to the right of Donald Trump).

CNBC's headline from the interview was that Bill sees 5% rates in near future. The real headline is that a lot of this interview was a bust, one of Judge's weaker efforts in years.

The money quote was when Judge and Bill discussed Carl Icahn.

"I did make peace with the guy. He's a charming person to hang out with and have dinner with," Bill said.

Even so, "For Carl to be the subject of a short attack, I did think there was a circle of life, kinda quality to it," Bill added.

Judge started off asking Ackman about Ukraine. Not to complain, but honestly, we could've anticipated what Bill's remarks would be on that subject and filled in all the blanks for him while Judge frittered away 5 minutes of quality time.

Later, in an incredibly laborious line of questioning, Judge wondered if Bill has changed as an investor over the years, stating that when Ackman unloaded NFLX after an earnings call, it was a "moment" (snicker) of some kind.

Bill shrugged that he would've made the same decision previously.

Bill said he owns "8 amazing companies" and also mentioned a "tiny little investment" in Fannie and Freddie as "options" on the "government taking 'em out of conservatorship." (This writer is long FNMA.)

Bill said his bet on rising rates is still on. Bill mentioned a "government shutdown" as 1 factor, as if it's really going to affect anything.

Bill said Steve Mnuchin "did a good job" but should've issued a lot of 30-, 50- or 100-year paper at "crazy low interest rates." (That's fine, but you kinda need Congress to authorize that, if we understood the recent debt-ceiling struggle (remember that?) correctly.)

Bill said he "would not be shocked" to see the 30-year "through the 5 barrier," and the 10-year approach it, including in "weeks."

Bill said he bought Alphabet stock late last year and early this year; "AI was the reason why the stock was cheap." (This writer is long GOOGL.)

After Closing Bell cut away, Mike Santoli knocked Bill's description of the long bond as a 30-year contract with the government. "You can sell at any time," Santoli said.

Delivering Alpha doesn’t look like it has as much fun and games as the FutureProof conference

Thursday's (9/28) Halftime Report episode from Post 9 felt more like an undercard than the Trump-less GOP debate the night before, though there were a couple interesting trading movements.

Steve Weiss revealed that he sold DKS after buying more after the earnings shellacking. "The stock has not bounced," Weiss said. Once again, Weiss lamented how it was "stupid" not to sell it near 150 ahead of earnings.

We're guessing at some point he'll be back in.

Weiss pointed out that KMX got "crushed." Jenny Harrington a day earlier on the program said "it should be a perfectly good print" and called KMX a "great company." (Karen Finerman later on Fast Money said she was "disturbed" by the KMX report and the "big move" in the stock.)

Weiss trimmed META. He said "it was an outsized position" and he still thinks it's "very cheap." Guest host Frank Holland said it's 23 times forward.

Weiss didn't just trim ORCL, he "booted it." He said he had taken a trading position, but given his "somewhat slightly" changed market view, he just didn't want to "stay there."

Weiss also said he trimmed GS, partly because of how the Instacart IPO went, "the trade aspect" of his stake is over.

Brenda Vingiello just bought PANW; Frank said it's at 47 times forward. Brenda said customers are "gravitating" toward its product.

Brenda said she doesn't think AAPL deserves the same multiple as NVDA.

Bryn Talkington said, "I think 80 is the new 60 and oil will be structurally higher."

Bryn said 3 recent IPOs are trading below their IPO prices, so VCs who want to go public may "go back into hiding."

Bryn's Final Trade was POCT, which provides "guardrails on the S&P."

Morgan Brennan was at Delivering Alpha, asking Blackstone's Kathleen McCarthy about the state of commercial real estate. Being diplomatic, Kathleen said "different sectors are traveling at different speeds," and she led off with a positive, data centers. McCarthy used a lot of corp-speak in assessing the real estate landscape but said "50% of our activity this year to date has been in logistics."

Kids like eating cookies; not sure people like paying interest

Bryn Talkington offered on Thursday's (9/28) Halftime Report that we're in a "structurally different rate environment than we've been in the past 40 years," and ... as many people like to claim ... it hasn't "made its way through the economy."

"We are a country of credit," Bryn asserted, and the only reason the economy is still strong "is the insane amount of fiscal stimulus that we continue to have."

Nevertheless, "I think short term, the market's really oversold," but long term, we'll struggle with "this new paradigm, and this new regime of rates," Bryn concluded.

Steve Weiss said Thursday's rally is just a "blip" because the market appears short-term oversold.

Weiss likened higher rates to a kid eating a bunch of cookies despite his parents' warnings, and "they get this full-blown stomach ache."

Steve Liesman joined the show and observed, "Analysts think this run in high- rates- in higher rates has further to go."

Guest host Frank Holland asked Steve Liesman about Ben Emons' "fascinating" opinion about the 10-year reaching 5% and lifting others up to it for a "flat" curve. Steve wasn't so sure about that, stating, "There's a lot of folks that are ready to pounce on these longer-term yields," and "5% has not been around for a while."

"I think 5% might be the place that could be a top," Liesman added, saying 5% might be a "signal" for those who want to buy the long end and "perhaps borrow short."

Bryn said "we're not even close to being able to borrow short and lend long by the way" because there's "100 basis points of inversion there."

Bryn said "there's so much leverage on the long end" that there's a "decent probability" of a "hedge fund blow-up."

Shannon Saccocia said we'll see "oscillation" (and she also said "at the end of the day").

Leslie Picker reported on skeptics of stocks at Delivering Alpha.

Months after Josh gave up, Jenny tries her luck with DOCU

In the most intriguing stock buy in recent days, Jenny Harrington on Wednesday's (9/27) Halftime Report revealed, as she had indicated recently, that she bought DOCU — a stock she regularly knocked during the pandemic, as recently as last February.

Jenny on Wednesday said DOCU is a 15 multiple with a "7% free cash flow yield." She said it's "crazy" that the company has a billion users but "1.4 million paying subscribers," and of those, 1,000 generate revenues north of $300,000 per year.

Jenny said Gilman Hill counts as 1 subscriber, but multiple employees use Docusign and send it out to clients.

That's interesting, because Josh Brown talked about owning DOCU from Feb. 16 (when it traded in the 60s) through June, when he finally gave up. On Feb. 16, just like Jenny, he noted that his office uses Docusign. In March, he said it's the "cheapest it's ever been."

It appears the stock this week is near a 52-week low.

On Wednesday, Jenny didn't mention Brown (who wasn't on the show) trying the same trade but outlined projected earnings growth for DOCU and said it's one of the "really high-conviction companies" that you can buy in this market.

Jason Snipe said he hasn't owned DOCU but that Jenny makes a "very compelling story."

Joe Terranova said he likes Docusign and believes it's a "unique company" and has "potential to stand out against the rest of that universe of what we would call long-duration non-profitable companies."

Joe even said that Jenny didn't mention that "this is a company that could be bought at some point." But he said he doesn't want to own it now because he thinks "long-duration assets are still challenged."

Jenny said DOCU is "actually profitable here and now."

Jenny said DOCU is down 87% from its all-time high. "Do I think we're gonna have a 900% return in it? Absolutely not. You know, but maybe there's a 100%, 150% return."

‘I don’t even know if I’m allowed to say this’ — Guy Adami on Fast Money brings up Jeff Macke, says Jeff in December 2021 said PTON and LULU should do a partnership

Judge on Wednesday's (9/27) Halftime Report asked Jim Lebenthal about hefty returns year to date in AI stocks, a recent area of interest to Jim in the form of NVDA.

Jim, who affirmed he owns NVDA but not the others, said the forward multiple on NVDA is 26. Jim said talk about AI sounds "bubble-like," but "it does not however sound like it's a bubble that's imminently gonna pop."

Kristina Partsinevelos, who gets a lot of airtime previewing AI/chip earnings, said "negative free clash (sic) (snicker) flow" was expected from MU.

Judge brought up the Meta conference; Joe Terranova said, "Please don't start talkin' about the metaverse again," saying he doesn't want to "turn back time and go there."

Jim Lebenthal insisted of APPL, "This is, at the end of the day, just a stock." That didn't stop Judge from saying, "It's not really just a stock though is it, it's the biggest stock ... the biggest buyback too."

Jenny Harrington agreed with Judge and said there's an "emotional component" to AAPL.

Jason Snipe touted COST though it's "expensive." Joe said COST is "exactly the trenches" of how the consumer is doing.

Jenny called KMX a "great company."

Joe said he bought DDOG at 86 in early May, sold some at 93 and the rest at 88. He's got "significant respect right now for valuation."

Joe's Final Trade was puts on the XLP, which Judge noted was interesting.

We heard on Fast Money that Guy Adami was apparently thinking about playing Karen Finerman in pickleball.

Jenny can’t remember whether she deems this a new bull market or a bear market rally

Judge opened Wednesday's (9/27) Halftime Report by pointing out what September market returns have been in the previous 3 years (all down), and what the Q4 returns have been in the previous 3 years (all up).

Joe Terranova said he thinks it'll be a "positive quarter." Joe said the "prevailing trend" for the year will continue, led by megacap tech.

Jim Lebenthal said he's going to "stand by" his recent call for a "face-ripping" rally in Q4. Jim said oil may be up, but rents are coming down, and look at toasters (he said he bought one for $29), and the Fed "looks like it may be done."

Judge told Jenny Harrington that 61% of people in a Delivering Alpha survey say this is a "bear market" rally rather than a "new bull market." Jenny protested that there wasn't a 3rd category; "I don't think it's so binary." Judge asked how she voted. Jenny said, "I think I put bull market." But she actually thinks we're in a "long period of consolidation." Jenny said those options weren't "precise enough" for this market.

Jason Snipe said that as for market opinions, "the cop-out always is seasonality." He said a lot of money managers were "offsides" at the start of the year and predicted they will "chase" into year-end.

Judge promised Ackman at Delivering Alpha, which is Thursday the 28th.

Jimmy the Greek, like a certain president, received a pardon from Gerald Ford

Judge's star guest on Tuesday's (9/26) Halftime Report was NFL exec Mike Lombardi, who's got a book out. The first thing Judge said as the interview began was "No relation to Vince Lombardi."

Judge asked a curious question about the "state of coaching" in the NFL, which is a polite way of saying, Are there any great coaches anymore.

Lombardi explained that "the job is so overwhelming, the owners have hired coordinators to be head coaches." We think he means that the people currently serving as coordinators are doing, on certain levels, what previously had been head coaching duties.

We're not sure how it's any more overwhelming now than when Dick Vermeil and Joe Gibbs were famously sleeping at the office all week. But whatever.

Josh Brown asked for the "most interesting storyline" this year in the NFL; Lombardi first said he's taking Kelce-Swift out of it (for those who wondered if they might watch an entire hour of CNBC or any news media without hearing about that story).

Lombardi works for DraftKings and owns shares, according to Judge, who asked about gambling's impact on the NFL.

Lombardi said Brent Musburger launched the modern version of "The NFL Today" in 1975, and "he had Jimmy the Greek on, and they quietly talked about the gambling aspect." (Actually Jimmy the Greek joined the show in 1976, and when they talked about point spreads, it wasn't exactly "quietly.")

As for today's gambling (which places more TV advertisements than even Robert Herjavec's private-jet company with the always-delicious breakfast), "I think it's, it's just generated more and more interest in the sport," Lombardi said.

Judge didn't ask but should've whether Jimmy the Greek actually made a living from gambling ... or simply telling people about gambling.

Judge questioned if we've "gone too far" in letting "analytics" persuade coaches to go for it on 4th down deep in their own territory. Lombardi pointed to the Chargers-Vikings game last Sunday and suggested the Chargers' problem wasn't going for it, it was choosing a handoff up the middle. "If they throw a pass, they're gonna win the game," Lombardi said.

Once again, nobody brings up the subject of Andy Jassy’s job security

Eamon Javers opened Tuesday's (9/26) Halftime reporting on Lina Khan's war with AMZN, stating the company will employ "battalions of lawyers."

Josh Brown, who might as well be hired by AMZN's legal counsel because he ended up saying exactly what that counsel is going to argue in court, said it may be "too soon" to have a "takeaway" from the AMZN news, but it could be "a fairly novel use of antitrust law" because the government is actually targeting a company that is "lowering prices for consumers too much."

Brown claimed AMZN, despite its presence, has "competitors" and is "losing market share everywhere."

Judge said investors he talks to "often yawn" about antitrust cases like this and call it "political" and expect "it'll be a fine; no big whoop."

Indeed. On the 5 p.m. Fast Money, Karen Finerman admitted, "I'm kind of ignoring it for now."

Stephanie Link said this FTC suit will take "years" and that if the company were actually broken up, the stock(s) would go higher.

Tim Seymour says Joe Biden’s UAW comments ‘might be alienating people that sit more in the middle’

Evidently because he's getting tired of DIS, Judge is talking about NKE quite a bit lately, including on Tuesday's (9/26) Halftime Report.

Judge said Goldman Sachs says to buy NKE. Asked about NKE's slide, Stephanie Link said, "It started with Foot Locker," which is just what Joe Terranova (who wasn't on Tuesday's show) said a day earlier. Stephanie said NKE is normally a 28 P.E. but is now at 24 (which doesn't mean anything in the slightest as to where the stock is going.)

Josh Brown wasn't buying NKE. "Technically, this is a falling knife," Brown said. He'd "definitely" not buy NKE into earnings.

Josh said shoe brands Hoka and On spent a tiny fraction of NKE's marketing budget and "managed to steal $3 billion worth of sales from, from Nike." Stephanie shrugged that it's like "2% market share."

All we know is that Fish is ‘neutral’ on crude

On Tuesday's (9/26) Halftime Report, what else but interest rates dominated the top of the program.

Stephanie Link said "90% of people that have a mortage have it under 5%." Josh Brown said that "short term," rates are a bigger problem for auto sales. Stephanie also said the dollar has been a headwind for industrials, but the economy "has been able to handle it for now," and she touted new buys CSCO and DE.

Yet, Stephanie protested she's not "100% like bullish." Judge insisted Stephanie is "more bullish than most."

Josh Brown said "8% of S&P 500 names are at 52-week lows."

Liz Young said the VIX is "quietly rising" and at 18 is the highest since spring.

Liz, who never seems to really like any stocks and never mentions individual stocks, said "some people are jumping on a bandwagon" for energy, while she's "used it as my final trade a few times over the last couple months."

Josh Brown said year-to-date, median return for XLE names is "only plus-4%." He's long RIG but he said it's "hugely speculative" and "please don't follow me into it."

Judge said what if the energy "runway" is short because of economic slowdown concerns. Josh and Stephanie suggested energy is a "supply story" more than a demand story.

Josh said $100 oil seems a little like a "magnet."

Josh: Look for NKE at 80

Right after the A block on Monday's (9/25) Halftime Report, guest host Frank Holland asked Joe Terranova about ... NKE. (#ohno) (This time, we didn't hear the LULU-as-a-footwear-company comparison.)

Citing the back-to-school season, Joe said there are "significant challenges" for apparel and footwear in that consumers "clearly" must be more "cost-conscious."

"This began in the spring with Foot Locker," Joe said, explaining that FL was "telegraphing" the kind of weakness we're seeing. (Well, it's great to learn months later that something months ago was telegraphing something.)

Shannon Saccocia said NKE has been focused on "reducing the slippage" in recent years.

Josh Brown said we've been in this era where the NKE consumer was "sitting at home with tons of stimulus dollars" and not just buying NKE gear for themselves but trying to "collect" and "trade" and "resell higher."

That scene "has largely played itself out," Brown said, and is "kind of a mess right now" and is populated by the "same people who were doing that with crypto and stocks on Robin Hood and NFTs, et cetera."

Josh predicted NKE will "make a new low" and that you'll be able to get it at 80.

Brown also said NKE has only once before had 2 down years in a row, 1983-84, and "the return in 1985 coming out of that was plus-80%."

Joe, Jim seem to have different expectations for Q4 stock performance

At the top of Monday's (9/25) Halftime Report, Joe Terranova actually mentioned "student loan implementation" as one of the current stock market headwinds, but he doesn't see the "overall trend" for 2023 being broken.

Bill Baruch said "we could see 4,200."

Josh Brown stressed "real rates are important" because they're comfortably in the positive range and "absolutely" make bonds competition for stocks.

Brown said there's an "uptick" in belief that there won't be a hike in November.

Joe isn't as sure as RBC that a lot of shutdown overhang is already priced in, but Joe said, "I think that there is the potential that earnings are just good enough to kinda lift us through the end of this year." That's a contrast to recent predictions of Jim Lebenthal (who wasn't on Monday's show) for a "face-ripping" rally in Q4.

Josh said "It's really hard to scare investors with the same thing twice," explaining that most money managers "were around in 2011" and remember market fear over that shutdown.

"There are very few areas of the market where you can find high degrees of confidence," said Joe, citing energy and megacap tech.

Josh said his AAPL stake is as "solid as ever."

If the Pittsburgh Steelers simply followed Robert Herjavec’s advice, they’d ‘never’ have a problem with their chartered flight and always-delicious breakfast

On Monday's (9/25) Halftime Report, guest-hosted by Frank Holland, Sully was reporting from that energy conference that he goes to every year.

Sully said CVX's Mike Wirth sees possible $100 crude.

Joe Terranova said the supply-demand "imbalance" in oil is not cyclical but "secular" (he first said "seclicur") (we mention that because it's funny, not because we're trying to stick it to Joe). (Shannon Saccocia said "structional" moments later.)

Joe reasserted that there's a "dramatic underperformance" this quarter in oil equities vs. the spot price (which has done better than the equities). Joe advised, "Don't look at the price of oil anymore."

Bill Baruch "wouldn't be chasing" crude but said it could hit $100 and that China may prove a tailwind.

Halftime Report viewers got to hear CNBC's ultra-cute Pippa Stevens talk about the Pittsburgh Steelers. (It was about the team plane.) Frank Holland said, "Giving new meaning to a 'soft landing.'" But that didn't really make any sense; it sounds like the plane landed as normal, it just had to curtail the flight.

Josh Brown said he sold ANET because "the trade is obviously not going anywhere."

Shawn Fain basically admits leaked ‘chaos’ message is true

Midway through Friday's (9/22) Halftime, Phil LeBeau scored an interview with Shawn Fain on the front lines in Centerline, Mich.

The sexiest part of the interview (by far) came at the end, when Phil asked about "leaked messages that came out overnight from someone within the UAW" that said "we create chaos here."

So Phil asked Fain, what about people who saw reports of those messages and conclude, "This isn't bargaining in good faith."

"I say shame on the corporations for puttin' that b.s. out there," Fain said.

"Are you saying that's not true? Is that message true?"

"The message may be true, but the, whoever said it, but the point is this, that's not been our- our mission has been to get an agreement before bargaining started ... when they talk about chaos and all that, we have to plan, we have to plan for the worst-case scenario."

Phil also asked Fain about Stellantis' claim that if it has to close facilities, it's to make a "more efficient organization" in which workers won't lose their jobs but will be reallocated to different plants.

That's an interesting subject, really. A lot of people aren't too interested in having to move to keep their same job. On the other hand, people get transferred all the time.

Fain didn't exactly have a scientific argument for this subject, stating automakers shouldn't be closing any facilities and it's "ridiculous" to tell workers "pack your crap and move yourself miles away to find another job."

Fain separated GM and Stellantis as "in the same place," i.e., those talks are not going as well as the talks with Ford, which dodged additional strikes. As for GM and Stellantis, "They chose for us to be out here right now," Fain said, explaining the UAW's targeting the tier wage system at parts distribution centers.

Phil did not ask if Fain is related to Ferris Fain, big league hitting star of the 1950s.

Weiss calls China ‘unstable,’ sells BABA, says Bryn wrong about nobody wanting to buy non-Tesla EVs

In an important development, Steve Weiss on Friday's (9/22) Halftime Report announced that he sold BABA.

"This was a portfolio move," Weiss said, and "I will be back in BABA."

We're not faulting Weiss for this one, as it was an interesting call with a decent thesis, though he did trumpet the trade for weeks if not months, and it basically didn't work.

Weiss had been making the case for the stock based on Chinese economic stimulus. On Friday, he spoke of the country's leadership in stark terms.

"Xi is off the rails, I mean, he's just goin' crazy, you know, and, uh, he's gettin' rid of all his ministers," Weiss said. "It's unstable there, and then, they continue to circle Taiwan with planes."

Weiss suggested there won't be an invasion of Taiwan but maybe a "blockade."

Rob Sechan noted China's problems but said BABA is a "good way to play it."

Weiss then kind of changed the subject to TSLA, saying that company is at much bigger corporate risk in China than BABA is.

Bryn Talkington said she doesn't agree with Weiss on the risk to TSLA and asserted Elon has navigated the China landscape "amazingly well" and added she wouldn't "factor" her decision on owning TSLA on the possibility of Xi cracking down on the company.

Bryn said margins would be a bigger concern than the "CCP."

Weiss mentioned EV competition for Tesla, which prompted a secondary debate.

"There is no competition," Bryn stated.

"There's a lot," Weiss insisted.

"No one wants want to buy these other EVs. People wanna buy the Tesla EV," Bryn asserted.

"That's just not true. That's just not true," Weiss said.

Country club humor; Shannon disagrees with Weiss on dot-plot ‘lunacy’

Bryn Talkington at the top of Friday's (9/22) Halftime Report summarized the summer stock market quite neatly.

"July 31st was really the peak in the S&P," and as soon as the 2-year got to 5% and the 10-year got to 4.25%, "all of a sudden, equities can't handle that," Bryn explained.

"Typically stocks follow bonds, but right now, bonds have been following stocks," Bryn added.

Steve Weiss said he remains "very cautious" on the market and "I do believe we're going into a recession." Weiss said he is "still amazed" by the "lunacy" surrounding the notion from a month or two ago outlining a time frame of the Fed starting to cut.

"Additionally, inflation is not really under control," Weiss added.

Weiss indicated that "the Inflation Reduction Act" will be one of the "triggers" for higher inflation ahead. Weiss said the cost of buying or leasing a car "has gone up 20 to 40%."

Weiss said he and us are going to pay for the UAW wage increases and, then veering off on a personal tangent to share a story that only one panelist (but no viewers) may care about, Weiss made a joke about Rob Sechan, who was also seated at Post 9 on Friday, being "America's guest."

"I'm really Steve's guest, not America's guest," Rob said, explaining he joined Steve "at his country club." Weiss said, "This guy helped me meet my minimum in 1 month." "One day," Rob said. "One day, one day, for a month, actually for the whole season," Weiss agreed.

OK. Sounds good.

Rob said the Fed "is gonna be here" for a while, causing "a tax on corporate profits," and the market "finally woke up to it." (Ah, yes. A sluggish September week in the markets, and then we've got Guy Adami talking about how the world suddenly realizes Guy's 15-years-and-running thesis that the Fed has no control over the bond market or employment and how debt is out of control.)

Shannon Saccocia, who wasn't at Post 9, said we've had "increased volatility in yields" but, unlike Weiss, she doesn't think it was "lunacy" to project future rate cuts; "they had that in their dot plot for next year."

Guest host Frank Holland reported that Ackman is going to remain short bonds while at the same time replaying the clip this week of Jeffrey Gundlach telling Judge that bonds have gotten "doubly cheap to stocks." Weiss said Ackman and Gundlach aren't "necessarily" expressing opposite views, that Gundlach is simply saying bonds have gotten cheap "relative to equities."

Rob Sechan said "there's been a lot of casualties in trying to pick the top in rates."

‘150’s the new 100’

Bryn Talkington on Friday's (9/22) Halftime Report said "80 is the new 60" in oil, and she agrees with the JPMorgan energy upgrade.

But Bryn conceded "most people rent the space," not own it.

Guest host Frank Holland said, "They're basically saying 150's the new 100." Steve Weiss said he's heard those kinds of slogans numerous times over the years.

Rob Sechan said energy has had "2 strong months" and "I think they're a little late with this call."

But Weiss said what he loves about the JPMorgan call is that "I'm now not the last one to get in on the trade." Weiss said he wished Sechan had been a better salesman when "almost 2 years ago," Rob declared he loves energy "when it was really on the balls of his ass," that last word not often heard on the program.

Karen: Dow high in for year

Karen Finerman announced on Thursday's (9/21) Fast Money that she would guess we've seen the high in the year for the Dow.

But Karen pointed out there's room for the Dow to go up and not reach its high.

Karen said Thursday feels like "follow through" from Wednesday (in which people decided we've got an "enormous" debt and interest rate problem).

Even so, Jim Lebenthal hours earlier on Halftime shrugged off this week's market as "September seasonality." Jim declared "bonds are relevant again," but he sees "greater returns" in stocks beyond the 6% in bonds. And Jenny Harrington stresed the "real return" in bonds is offset by inflation.

Fish ‘neutral’ on oil

Glen Kacher may have been the star guest of Thursday's (9/21) Halftime, but Judge impressively scored a few comments from Mark Fisher on the oil market.

Fish joined the program late by video and said he'd be "neutral" in crude but would look to buy dips.

Fish said we've heard "less rhetoric" from the Biden administration about oil's surge as it works on a "pending" deal with Israel, Saudi Arabia and the Palestinian Authority.

Fish said fear of recession has been priced in and China's struggles are a little "overblown."

Jenny gives her regular argument against tech indexes, which was a great argument about 23 years ago

Honestly, we're flummoxed as to why Judge flew all the way to San Francisco to hear Glen Kacher say he likes NVDA, MSFT, AMZN and TSLA (not exactly undiscovered gems).

But Jenny Harrington was a participant on Thursday's (9/21) Halftime Report, and that's where our attention centered when Jenny started talking about the difference between just buying all kinds of tech stocks willy nilly ... and the Disciplined Growth Strategy portfolio.

Jenny initially told Judge, "I think we really need to stop particularly right now talking about tech as a broad thing overall." (Translation: I'm about to argue against owning the QQQ.)

Jenny then revealed, in a bit of an eye-opener, "We're looking at things like DocuSign and Zoominfo." (That's correct, the last one is different than the Zoom everyone knows about. It also has a P.E. of 54, according to Yahoo Finance, while DOCU has no P.E.)

Jenny said she wants to get "really, really granular in terms of where we're looking."

Then viewers got the Money Quote: Jenny said the market has "kind of coasted" for a decade on "just tech going up" and, this is the key comment, people "able to play index- indices," but now it's important to be an "active manager."

Why doesn't Jenny pick a tech portfolio of 7 actively managed stocks, and Judge can report the results of this portfolio vs. the Magnificent 7 throughout the rest of this year.

Tyler suggests Iger overpaid Murdoch for Fox library

Josh Brown opened Thursday's (9/21) Halftime with the stark observation that "I think the tech trade is gonna struggle so long as we see, uh, rates moving higher."

Josh said the dollar has rallied since the end of July, "and that doesn't work for stocks either."

But Glen Kacher, Judge's star guest of the day in San Francisco, merely said "this is a normal correction."

Judge suggested to Kacher that we have to "entertain the idea" that some tech stocks "are just overvalued." Kacher said NVDA's multiple is lower now than at the beginning of its run this year.

Judge went off on a curious tangent when he said Ken Griffin was heaping praise on NVDA management but called NVDA "pretty frothy," apparently trying to imply to Kacher that experts think tech is frothy.

Kacher said Citadel is more about the short term; "we're playing a different game than they're playing" and that Citadel is more concerned about "the next week or two."

Judge persisted, seemingly unrelated to the NVDA comment, that maybe a lot of stocks are above typical forward P.E. ratios. Kacher mentioned working with "startup companies" that are trying to solve problems and create "efficiency," which really has nothing to do with the TSLA multiple.

Josh suggested to Glen that NVDA has experienced a "tremendous pull forward in demand," which might weigh on the stock into 2024. Glen said "there's always double ordering ... when chips are in short supply."

On Fast Money, Tyler Mathisen suggested to Paul Dergarabedian that "right now," it looks like Murdoch got the better of Iger on Disney's Fox library purchase, but Dergarabedian begged off that he didn't have a "quick answer," though he said Tyler's description is "part of it."

No one opines on whether LULU is a ‘footwear company’

While the likes of NVDA got decent chatter on Thursday's (9/21) Halftime Report, there was a bit of discussion about boring old tech, such as when Judge brought up INTC.

Glen Kacher called INTC "significantly behind" NVDA and AMD in graphics processing. Jenny Harrington protested that she's "not trying to compete with Nvidia with respect to Intel." Rather, INTC is "undervalued relative to the future revenue stream," which is basically the argument that any stock owner makes about any stock they own.

Jenny said owning INTC fits the Disciplined Growth Strategy's "Billy Beane Moneyball" approach, which is something about deciding that in times such as March 2020 that "bankruptcy isn't in the conversation" for a company like INTC.

But Kacher said "I'm paying a lower multiple" for NVDA than he would be for INTC.

Meanwhile, Jim Lebenthal praised the Cisco-Splunk deal and said he has owned CSCO for 10 years and it's been a "darling" for him because it has "exactly matched the S&P 500 but with low drama." (Sounds like an argument for the SPYders.) Jenny said she's "pretty psyched" about the deal also.

Joe actually claims that LULU is a ‘footwear company’

On Wednesday's (9/20) Halftime Report, Judge, who was out at the CNBC bureau in San Francisco (so much for no more business travel after the pandemic because everyone's doing Zoom), reported on NKE, saying Morgan Stanley "removed their position in Nike" (which makes it sound like Morgan Stanley is a hedge fund).

Stephanie Link gave a speech in favor of the stock. Then things started to get curious, when Judge suggested to Joe Terranova that in the next JOET rebalancing, NKE will end up in the "trash bin."

Joe admitted JOET "got caught up in the technical momentum" with NKE.

Then Joe said LULU is a "fair alternative" to NKE and questioned Steve Weiss saying on a previous show that you "can't compare" the 2 names. (Weiss wasn't on Wednesday's program.)

Judge picked up Weiss' baton, telling Joe, "To be frank, I'm not sure that Nike and Lulu are the greatest comparisons." Judge said NKE is struggling because China is "much weaker" than people "had any idea" it would be.

Then he got more blunt. Judge said LULU is "its own thing" and has a "different customer with a different kind of product. Period."

Judge even told Joe, "I agreed with Weiss to be honest with you on the argument that you guys had the other day. Nike's a footwear company. First, second and third. LULU is like a specialty fitness apparel and lifestyle company. I don't know why we compared the two."

"I'm sorry, I'm just gonna completely disagree with you," Joe responded. "I think, yes they're a footwear company. Lululemon is also a footwear company-"

"They're not a footwear company. They're not a footwear company," Judge cut in. "They have- They sell shoes. They're not a footwear company."

"All right, uh, we disagree on that," Joe said. "I'm sorry. I just disagree with you."

"OK. To be continued, I suppose," Judge said.

This is one of those debates where, if you didn't already know the answer, you can consult the internet. Lululemon's own website does feature "shoes." However, we looked up the offerings ... and there aren't very many. Also, the lululemon Wikipedia page does not even mention "shoes" or "footwear" under the "Products" category.

Too bad Joe isn’t demanding QQQ update its commercials from the awful turkey legs guy and the Georgia ice bath

Judge helmed Wednesday's (9/20) Halftime Report from San Francisco, which meant all of his panelists were home in pandemic mode rather than taking in the surroundings at Post 9.

Pre-Fed episodes of the Halftime Report are generally pretty ... unexciting, so we'll start with the afternoon's post-Fed commentary, which included Jeffrey Gundlach on Judge's Closing Bell. (This review was posted after the Fed's rate decision.)

Jeffrey said "the word of the day is 'carefully'" and there was "something in there for everybody" and this was "one of the best Fed decisions that we've had in a while."

Jeffrey conceded the "probability" of more hikes is "higher" than what he has previously said (which was, they're "done") given the "oil spike" we're in. Jeffrey also credited Stephanie Link for saying earlier that there's still QT going on with the Fed.

Karen Finerman on Fast Money, which was guest-hosted by Dom Chu, sidestepped an opinion on the housing market but said of rates, "it's just math," that "rates are higher, which should mean equities lower," so Karen wants to be "hedged in the more high-flier names that I have."

"I'm staying long," Karen said later, while predicting "The next direction is down."

On Halftime, "Right now, the data does not justify a move," said Liz Young, so she didn't expect "any big surprises."

Joe Terranova made an analogy to advising his son on playing hockey (which was a curious analogy (his first of the day) and didn't quite seem to apply), stating we'll get the hawkish "threat" but not the "actual promise" from the Fed; he doesn't think they'll hike in November because 1) "weakening economy" and 2) "UAW strike" and 3) "low probability" for a government shutdown.

So Joe thinks the Fed is "basically done."

Steve Liesman said the Fed "may be done," but "being done doesn't mean being easy," a slogan that Judge would repeat maybe 3 times during the program, including during Santoli's Midday Call. Steve thinks rates could be "much higher for far longer." Steve added after the Fed press conference (we're not sure on which program) that it seems it's even "higher" than he thought.

Stephanie Link sold HD for a bunch of reasons. Of course, "I've made some money on it."

Judge brought up Joe's pre-announced buy of the QQQ. (This writer is long QQQ.) Joe explained that his portfolio is "basically underweight towards where the outperformance has been so far year to date." Joe emphasized this isn't a call on 2024, rather, it's "just for a trade at the end of the year."

CNBC's gorjus Kate Rooney and Dee Bosa joined Judge in San Francisco and discussed both the IPO market and potential of iPhones having a retail trading button.

Bob Pisani reported on the Klaviyo opening (boy are we gonna have trouble spelling that one).

Stephanie Link's portfolio is overweight energy and industrials. Liz Young did not sound very optimistic about industrials and said she wouldn't be going "all in."

Jim’s obsessed with Hulu

Julia Boorstin said on Tuesday's (9/19) Halftime Report that DIS is "literally doubling down on its parks business."

That's a statement that really says a lot, actually.

Julia concluded, "For now, investors are not that excited about this news."

Jim Lebenthal wondered why DIS didn't wait "6 weeks" to make this kind of announcement and bluntly declared, "The timing on this is stupid."

Josh Brown said it's just "misdirection" to distract Wall Street from the sales price Disney's going to get for ABC.

Sarat Sethi acknowledged "issues with streaming" at DIS. He said the stock's in "no-man's land" and "probably" gets cheaper.

Jim again said "who cares" about whether the Hulu buyout costs DIS $9 billion or $11 billion.

On the 5 p.m. Fast Money, Karen Finerman said "Wow, they're spending a ton of money, right, streaming business is costing them a ton of money."

Jim stands by ‘face-ripping rally’ prediction for Q4 (a/k/a the subject of Andy Jassy’s job security goes unmentioned)

Tuesday's (9/19) Halftime Report, guest-hosted by Dom Chu, was a little sleepy, leading off with Josh Brown adding to his AMZN stake.

Brown conceded the stock has "done nothing for a long time."

Josh also conceded AMZN is not a "rocket ship" and he's not expecting a double, but he sees "no reason" it can't get back to the old highs.

Sarat Sethi brought up "AI" in the AMZN discussion.

Kari Firestone said consumer spending has been "reasonably good" and retail numbers have "not fallen off a cliff."

Dom wanted to "juxtapose" AMZN's declared outlay of pay raises with what's going on in Detroit. Jim Lebenthal agreed there are "inflationary aspects" to raises.

Jim said of the AMZN hiring, "You don't do that if you don't think the consumer's pretty strong."

Jim said he would "commend" Josh on his AMZN purchase but said Josh's concerns about timing this purchase wrong would only matter for "a matter of weeks." Because Jim predicted, after September, we're "likely to have a face-ripping rally."

Dom asked Kari if investors "should be worrying about" a government shutdown (snicker).

Josh Brown said Instacart is really an "ad business" and that delivering groceries doesn't actually make money; the money comes from companies spending to make sure "their products are on the home page of the app."

Kari actually said "Some people want to own Intel (snicker), particularly value investors who are looking for some technology."

Karen Finerman on the 5 p.m. Fast Money said it's "most likely" the Fed doesn't hike this week, but "I don't think we're at the end" of rate hikes.

Trying to be ‘candid and humble’

In a rather curious exchange on Monday's (9/18) Halftime Report, Joe Terranova got a little bogged down by "sentiment" for NKE.

Before Joe got going, Judge noted that Marko Kolanovic is expressing concern about multiples. Josh Brown said it's "reasonable" for Marko to do so.

Seemingly unrelated to that, Joe admitted NKE has gone "straight down" since it was added to the JOET in July.

But Joe said NKE's slide is "consistent" with what Marko says about the market; "perception doesn't always meet reality," because the "perception" of Marko's note is that thers's an "ominous sentiment" forming for the markets.

Joe said it doesn't mean markets go down in the next 3 months; by contrast, "everyone" expects a NKE recovery "but in reality, the recovery is not coming" and people need to be "humble and candid with yourself."

(OK, so he's saying NKE bulls may be wrong ... and somehow twisting it into a Marko analogy.)

Judge said he would "disagree" with Joe's characterization. Judge said Marko is "not talking about sentiment, he's talking about fundamentals," and "Nike's problems ... are not one of sentiment. They're of fundamentals. ... The stock's down 18% year to date, not on sentiment but on fundamentals."

Joe pointed to the analyst price target cuts on NKE and got Judge to admit they still "reiterated outperform."

"But Scott, that's what I'm talking about with sentiment," Joe insisted, again saying people need to be "candid and humble and say 'Something is wrong with Nike.'"

Joe kept saying 65% of NKE revenue comes from non-U.S., whereas 65% of LULU's revenue comes from the U.S.; he'd rather own LULU. Joining the conversation, Steve Weiss said he doesn't think the two can be compared, because LULU is a "niche" market, while NKE is more broadly exposed to the economy. Joe insisted he'd "much rather" own LULU.

Not a word about the auto workers strike (nor Rousseau)

On Monday's (9/18) Halftime Report, at least one person was a little sour on holiday hiring.

Steve Weiss cautioned against taking positives from Macy's employment goals; "they've gotta go all in on Christmas."

Joe Terranova offered that "there's a lot of negativity that's embedded in markets overall."

Josh Brown said there's "a lot of stocks giving back ground." Josh also noted that volatility is "extremely low" and the VIX high for the year is 26.

Joe said "certainly you could own Broadcom," which of course has a ... drum roll ... "much more reasonable valuation" than ARM.

As others talked up oil stocks, Steve Weiss asserted that energy is "always a trade." Josh Brown argued it could be a "multiyear" trade, which Judge seconded. Joe again stressed that the integrateds figure to bring lesser returns.

Weiss relayed his insider's take on Instacart and how the IPO-hedge fund market works.

For ETF Edge, Bob Pisani interviewed Sylvia Jablonski about an ODTE ETF. At one point, we heard Bob say, "The vast majority of people lose money doing this. We know this." Sounds promising.

Judge’s alma mater comes close to dealing mighty Bama a loss

Last year, the South Florida Bulls, who have sent football players to the National Football League, won 1 game.

So it figured that when Alabama came to town on Saturday in a VERY rare type of road trip for the Tide that Nick Saban would be pocketing an easy victory.

That didn't happen.

The Bulls led in the 2nd quarter and went to the locker room at halftime all tied at 3. While some may have been thinking "Chaminade-Virginia" (that's correct, basketball not football), it wasn't meant to be, as the Tide finally overcame a sloppy performance to seal a 17-3 win.

USF's coach wasn't taking any solace in the highly competitive performance. "There are no moral victories. Valiant efforts are for losers. Moral victories are for losers," he explained.

Still, gotta think the Bulls made their alums proud on Saturday.

Jim says president’s remarks on UAW strike were a ‘complete miss’

Friday's (9/15) Halftime Report was interrupted briefly when Joe Biden made a statement and cited automakers' "record profits" (often a popular slogan for some) (because it would be great if every company made less money than it did last year) and declared that those profits "have not been shared fairly in my view with those workers."

Asked to opine after the president's remarks, Jim Lebenthal said he respects the president and the office but Joe's remarks were a "complete miss" because "what the union is asking for is to go back to 20th-century practice" including "jobs banks."

Judge asked Jim why the automaker stocks were higher Friday. Jim said, even as a GM long, "I think the market's getting it wrong today."

Jim said there is "no sympathy, none" from him about the UAW demand for a 32-hour workweek, questioning if anyone on the panel or watching the show actually works as little as 40 hours a week.

‘Transition to green,
yada yada yada’

On Friday's (9/15) Halftime Report, Judge summoned Bryn Talkington (who wasn't on the panel) for a soundbite on oil, and wasn't disappointed.

"I get this whole transition to green, yada yada yada, it's happening; it's not gonna be happening for like 20-plus years," Bryn explained.

Bryn said 87 had been resistance in crude, now it's support. She thinks that's "very very bullish" for crude.

Judge said that traditionally, strong dollar means weaker oil, but that's "not the case" now. Bryn said OPEC "cut too late," although we weren't quite sure at what time she was referring to.

Joe Terranova pointed out "frustration" in how XLE is lagging the spot price of crude. Jenny Harrington said there's upside ahead, though not "crazy upside."

Jenny actually quotes Rousseau to shoot down Joe’s (pending) QQQ trade

In what proved to be a more provocative statement than we would've thought, Joe Terranova on Friday's (9/15) Halftime Report revealed, "Next week, I'll buy the Q's," and "for the people you know on social media that wanna criticize me for that, you've never traded, so you don't even know what I'm talking about." (This writer is long the QQQ.)

(Well, 1) We've never criticized Joe on social media, but 2) What difference does it make if someone has never traded, can't they opine on a stock/ETF purchase that's announced on television?)

Joe stressed that he's running a long-term "equal-weighted" strategy. Judge pointed out "the Q's are not equal-weighted" and in fact are "the most market-weighted way to apply (sic could've been 'play' but sounded like 'apply') the market right now."

Joe said this isn't an investment for the next 12-18 months; it's "for a trade" in Q4.

It sounds like a good trade to us. But not to Jenny Harrington, who declared Joe is not "going to be right on that."

"I don't wanna be long the Q's," Jenny affirmed.

Jenny referred to a quote from "old philosopher Rousseau" about how reality has its limits, but "the world of imagination is boundless." (Well, that's maybe a little more thought-provoking than Bill Parcells' "You are what your record says you are!!!!!")

Jenny said those who think multiples of the QQQ stocks can expand are living in "imagination." Joe insisted that he and Jenny agree in general and that Jenny's "100% correct," but he's talking about a Q4 trade (so actually, they really don't agree).

Jim Lebenthal basically took Joe's side, stating that if there's a chase for performance (which Jim has been predicting this month), it's statistically going into Big Tech. Jim said he thinks Joe will make "good money" buying the Q's next week.

Jim also predicted a "face-ripper" in Q4, and if not for Jenny quoting Rousseau, that would be the headline on this item, as Jim is positioning himself for possible Call of the Year contention if that indeed does happen.

Jenny says ‘lazy’ people were ‘dumb enough’ to sell SCHW on Friday

Making a blunt call on ... people who trade stocks ... Jenny Harrington on Friday's (9/15) Halftime Report said that people selling SCHW on Friday were "lazy" and that people buying it are "those who actually do work."

Jenny said if some people are "dumb enough" to sell these shares down 4% Friday, you should "take that free money."

Judge told Jenny the stock is down 31% year to date and asked, "So all the sellers are dumb?"

"No. On today's news," Jenny explained, saying the stock traded down earlier in the year for "kind of reasonable reasons."

Jenny insisted Friday's drop is "not something bigger" than simply closing out the TD Ameritrade deal.

Joe calls ‘b.s.’ on pundits who say you can ‘neutralize’ risk

Joe Terranova on Friday's (9/15) Halftime Report said this choppy market is "kind of overdue" for some volatility and mentioned the historical pattern of stocks being weak for a week after September triple-witching.

Jenny Harrington declared that at the "S&P level," we're "range-bound," but there's opportunity from "cross-currents."

Jenny trimmed UBER and XPO only because they've grown to "large portfolio sizes." (Um, stocks do not care about the rest of the size of Jenny's portfolio.)

Kevin Simpson said there may be some headwinds but the "bull narrative holds," though he thinks the market may be "prematurely pricing in rate cuts."

Joe Terranova stated that Wall Streeters, "even on the network," will "consistently" try to claim that you can "eliminate" or "neutralize" risk, "I call b.s. on that. You cannot."

Joe said that all you can do is "reshape risk (snicker) in the market (sic last 3 words redundant)."

More than he planned to say about FLT

Kevin Simpson on Friday's (9/15) Halftime Report touted DE (which was Steve Weiss' favorite trading stock this year) and called it a "better value" than CAT because of multiple.

Jim Lebenthal said the knock on DE has been "peak earnings," but he doesn't see it that way. DE is also in the JOET. Joe Terranova pointed out that "corn and wheat are down nearly 20%."

Kevin Simpson talked up V and indicated MA's multiple is higher. Joe said those stocks are an alternative to money-center banks. Jim called V, which he owns, a "stalwart stock."

Joe said he'd be a "buyer of the weakness" in chips.

Joe said spring 2023 was the "strongest moment" for homebuilder stocks and that if you're expecting more of the same, "lower your expectations."

Judge had to get Joe to keep talking about his Final Trade of FLT in order to bridge the TV gap to Kelly's The Exchange.

Al Michaels threatens to switch to Fox Business if Jim makes CLF his Final Trade

On Thursday's (9/14) Halftime Report, Judge brought in Al Michaels ahead of the opening Thursday night NFL broadcast on Amazon Prime. (Al used to broadcast Sunday night football, not Thursday, and would often appear before the playoffs.)

"This has become a tradition," Al acknowledged.

Al noted the Minnesota Vikings' turnover differential in Week 1. "They gave the game away," Al said. (That's kinda what happened Thursday, too.) (This review was posted after the Vikings-Eagles game.)

Judge impressively asked about several NFL topics (but not the game in Pittsburgh), including Joe Burrow's Week 1 struggle. "He'll have a good year. Trust me," Al assured.

Al said if Jim Lebenthal's Final Trade is CLF, then Al will switch over to Fox Business. "Don't you ever do that," Judge said.

Judge finds someone who’s concerned about the deficit (but it’s not Weiss)

Other than the ARM IPO, the hot topic on Thursday's (9/14) Halftime Report was the comments by Ken Griffin, who apparently is giving CNBC extended time.

Judge played a clip of Griffin saying he's a "bit anxious" as to whether the rally can continue, he said it feels like "7th or 8th inning." Griffin also stressed the impact of higher real rates.

Judge said he had dinner the night before with someone who is "quite concerned about the deficit (snicker)"; Judge couldn't name the person because it was off the record.

Steve Weiss said he agrees with Griffin's concerns about the risks of elevated real rates. Agreeing with Jason Snipe's earlier point about the attractiveness of bond yields, Weiss said they're a "pretty compelling" alternative.

Weiss said of the deficit, "We've seen higher deficits in other countries. So that's something we have to deal with at some point, but I believe the deficit can actually grow without impacting the credit standing of the U.S. further."

OK ... "something we have to deal with at some point ..." they've been saying that since the '70s ...

Jim Lebenthal said the evidence indicates "soft landing."

Weiss said he'd rather be in NVDA than ARM and cautioned about the "massive overhang" in ARM from Softbank's ownership. Weiss again stressed that the market's in "consolidation phase" before his video cut out.

Rouseeau must’ve had something to say about the auto workers contract

As he basically did every day this week (this review was posted early 9/16), Jim Lebenthal on Thursday's (9/14) Halftime Report said "the right thing to do" in the automakers' contract talks is for management to give the UAW "a big raise," and for the workers to "accept the raise."

On the other hand, "The wrong thing to do for both sides is to go back to 20th-century practices of implementing pensions and protecting jobs," Jim said, stating instead they should "redirect the workforce to where it's needed."

Jim mentioned those "20th-century practices" about 3 times.

Jim went into a lengthy explanation as to why he's selling RTX.

Meanwhile, Amy Raskin bought more SNOW; "it's not a quarter call."

Jason Snipe said he likes FDX. Steve Weiss said he sold FDX "prematurely" but wants to "wait" to add.

Weiss talked of buying more GS, stating, "Amy shamed me into adding to it."

Jim said part of the risk of owning an airline like DAL is a spike in oil prices, but it's "comforting" that the company is "reaffirming the full-year guidance."

Weiss echoes what this page just said about DIS and in the process suddenly rockets into contention for Call of the Year

It's been a while since we've virtually high-fived Steve Weiss during an episode of the Halftime Report, but that's exactly what was occurring Wednesday (9/13) when Weiss started opining on the streaming space.

Weiss said of NFLX, "Their costs should be way down," because of the strikes (even though Netflix doesn't want to talk about that angle), and having a "massive library" establishes NFLX as the clear leader in streaming.

Then it got good. REALLY good.

"Frankly, I don't know why Disney went into the streaming business. I know what they thought. I don't know why they're staying in it when they're such a strong content provider. Maybe it makes sense for 'em to rethink that. I don't believe they will, but I'd suggest that," Weiss said.

This is one of those times where the veteran skills of Judge may — stressing may, as Judge's decision-making isn't always inspiring — have paid off in the form of the host simply saying, "Whoa, that's an interesting comment, how do you think Disney would unwind Disney+ if it chose to do so ...?"

Instead, guest host Courtney Reagan (who's otherwise doing a fine job; Judge was back for Closing Bell a couple hours later) declared, "Hmmmph. Interesting stuff," then cut to one of those Deion/Saban AFLAC commercials.

Anyway, note Weiss' comment, "I don't know why Disney went into the streaming business." We can answer that one. Not only were Wall Street idiots demanding it ("Gee whiz, if it works for Netflix, imagine DISNEY doing it with all that content and what it would do for the MULTIPLE!!!!!"), but CNBC anchors who have never run a media business kept saying every day for years (not an actual quote) "Oh with my kids, I'd pay ANYTHING for a Disney streaming subscription ... etc."

Iger knows that streaming is just an endless, relentless quagmire of acquiring new subscribers that almost no one has the inspiration or energy or wherewithal to pursue long term. Netflix went all out for it as a matter of survival and was the first to do so by a wide margin and basically succeeded. Guy Adami occasionally calls it the "land grab" that NFLX won. The chances of even Elon Musk or Steve Jobs or Bob Iger being able to replicate Netflix's decade-and-a-half persistence with a different content platform in a far shorter time span is basically impossible.

Streaming is not what DIS does. Fold Disney+, license "Dumbo" to either NFLX or AAPL, and let Bob go back to dealmaking.

Iger has always known this.

Weiss said he doesn't think Disney will rethink Disney+. But if Bob should announce during this year that Disney+ is going to be shelved, Weiss will surge into front-runner status for Halftime/Fast Money Call of the Year.

Joe Terranova stated, "Netflix really in the last several years has been more of a trading opportunity than a longer-term investment." Karen Finerman on the 5 p.m. Fast Money said of NFLX, "I'm tempted to buy some."

Elon Musk thinks it’s hilarious when Eamon Javers asks him what he means by ‘double-edged sword’

The middle portion of Wednesday's (9/13) Halftime Report was interrupted by Elon Musk, leaving Chuck Schumer's AI meeting in D.C., answering questions from CNBC's Eamon Javers.

Elon talked about the value of having a "referee" for the technology.

But we were surprised that he actually said with a straight face, "Senator Schumer did a great service to humanity here" in holding the AI forum.

Elon said when Schumer asked everyone who's in favor of AI regulation to raise their hands, "almost everyone did."

So virtually everyone thinks there should be some kind of regulation, and beyond that, nobody has any idea what this regulator should do or is going to do.

During Javers' sidewalk interview, there was also some chap in a tophat and bowtie holding court behind Musk.

Joe Terranova said there are "probably 12 to 15" "executive departments" in the presidential Cabinet (that gets kind of tricky, because some positions are "Cabinet-level" and treated more importantly than actual Cabinet positions ... it was more clear-cut when Albert Brooks tripped up William Hurt with that question in "Broadcast News" ... "What do you do when your real life exceeds your dreams?" "Keep it to yourself!!") and asked the panel, "Why do we not have a Department of Technology?" (Because it would be obsolete as soon as the secretary is confirmed, no one answered.)

Coverage of AAPL product launches deemed ‘waste of media time’

On Wednesday's (9/13) Halftime Report, Kari Firestone said she's underweight AAPL, and she went to great lengths to retrace the stock's path this year.

Kari kind of shrugged at the new iPhone introductions Monday. Steve Weiss cut off Joe Terranova and chimed in that Apple's launches have been "consistently underwhelming" and that when Apple presented the "iPhone 10," nobody talked about the phone but whether it was pronounced "iPhone X" or "iPhone 10," which is a pretty good historical point.

Weiss said that the days of exciting Apple launches are "long gone" and that attending the launches is "a lot of waste of media time."

"So what. Who cares," Weiss added.

Now that's a provocative point. A lot of media organizations probably figure, "It's Apple, we gotta be there if we can." On the other hand, how much coverage is this really getting in newspapers and on TV. The app developers are probably going to the heavy-duty tech blogs.

Joe Terranova declared, "I know this is a controversial statement," but he's been saying all year that AAPL in 2023 isn't trading off fundamentals but "is purely trading off techles- (sic) technicals." (Boy, that's controversial.)

Joe said the technicals suggest "it's going to 165."

Oh joy, a November hike

Joe Terranova opened Wednesday's (9/13) Halftime Report by saying the chance of a November rate hike is "50/50."

Joe said that at dinner the night before, someone curiously asked him to "describe the month of September in the equity markets," and Joe's response was that it's "sharply unchanged" (that's the type of slogan that can headline a conference such as FutureProof).

Steve Weiss said, "I personally don't think that the Fed's gonna go again absent a big number tomorrow." But he said the market's in "not a great setup" and is in "consolidation phase" with the bar set higher for earnings, with potentially much higher risk to the downside than upside.

Guest host Courtney Reagan played a clip of Jeffrey Gundlach telling Judge at FutureProof a day earlier that he thinks the Fed is "done" and that once the "sideways" core PCE drops below 4, then "that will definitively make them stop." (That was the top comment Judge was able to elicit from this trip.)

Steve Liesman though said a November hike is "still very much on the table."

Joe said Adam Parker said earlier in the day, "The stock market leads the economy." Liesman responded, "The stock market thinks the Fed thinks more about it than it actually does," which is what Steve says in basically every appearance. (OK maybe not every appearance, but close.)

Kari Firestone said she's not sure the stock market leads the economy but that it's "pretty good at predicting."

Steve Liesman said it's "not entirely clear" to him whether, if the Fed does hike again, it will only be once more.

Weiss said Jamie Dimon was doing some "jawboning" the day before with his comments on banks. Weiss said lending has been "tight" for a while, and the "real stress" could be in the "shadow banking system" if the economy slides.

No sign yet that the general public is about to hand the UAW a ‘Waterloo moment’

Around here, we always like old Wall Street slogans and jokes, the kind you'd hear occasionally in the movie "Wall Street."

But heads were being scratched here on Wednesday (9/13) when Steve Weiss said on the Halftime Report, "When you sit on the trading desk, there is always a saying, uh, 'The airlines are like- like beer. You only rent it."

Renting beer. OK.

Weiss said there was "pent-up demand" for travel, but now the consumer is "getting topped out."

Joe Terranova said "it takes a lot to get me to be an owner of the airlines," even though the JOET has DAL and UAL. Joe said consumer and business fliers are going to be "far more cost-conscious."

Joe mentioned Nvidia's previous interest in ARM and mentioned the "small float" that he thinks will feed the "overwhelming strong demand."

Karen Finerman, gorrrrrrrrrrjus at the recently new Fast Money Nasdaq set, predicted there will be "more likely than not" a Big 3 automaker strike, but the question is the "duration."

At FutureProof, men wear shorts and T-shirts, women wear ball gowns

Despite the fact many pundits on CNBC insisted during the pandemic that business travel will never fully come back because of Zoom, Judge has made a habit of trips to California, including Tuesday (9/12) when he surfaced at Josh Brown's/Barry's FutureProof conference in Huntington Beach.

There happened to be a notable event going on up north in Cupertino, but Judge started off the Halftime Report talking about the ... IEO.

Josh Brown said energy is "far and away the cheapest sector in the stock market."

Josh again described the purpose of "FutureProof" without really noting that it's a clever name that doesn't actually really seem to mean anything (but one fellow seemingly plugged in to the future was the thumbs-up chap mugging for the camera behind Josh).

Liz Young, smashing in orange and seemingly all set for the dance floor, actually claimed that the Fed might hike in September despite a 6% probability.

Curiously, for a moment, Judge brought in Bill Baruch remotely (Bill wasn't interested in the future enough to attend the conference, apparently) to talk about ORCL; Bill said he wishes he was adding more but he's not, he's "managing risk" and is wary of the stock falling into the "pocket" below 106½.

Katie Stockton, who goes way back on the original Fast Money as a guest at the time from MKM Partners, joined Judge's group in Huntington Beach and said she doesn't expect AAPL to bounce on the announcement, but once there's "an oversold reading and a retest," that's the entry point.

Josh Brown said there were "sneaker collections on display" at FutureProof.

Bob Iger can’t put the genie back in the bottle (a/k/a will it be AAPL or GOOGL or META that streams ‘Bambi’?)

On Monday (9/11), there was a Disney-Charter deal, which meant it was basically Julia Boorstin Day on CNBC, except, curiously, on the Halftime Report, which didn't really devote a lot of time to the subject (perhaps because Jenny wasn't around to say THIS IS LIKE BETTING AGAINST NEW YORK CITY!!!!).

Halfway through the show, Jim Lebenthal asserted that "Linear TV is going away" (that's just what KC Sullivan and CNBC brass want to hear) and said it's the "same sort of industry" as newspapers about "20, 30, 40 years ago," though by "no means" does he think linear TV "is going the way of newspapers" (even though it's the "same sort," apparently).

Stephanie Link said it seems to her that "Disney had no choice."

Jim brought up the purported Hulu deal again and stressed the importance of it and said "who cares" if Disney pays $8 billion or $11 billion.

On the 5 p.m. Fast Money, Tim Seymour opined that ESPN is "probably more valuable than it seemed yesterday," but ESPN+ seems "more like garbage" than yesterday.

Karen Finerman suggested the deal was "sort of win-win," but the alternative would've been "bad" for CHTR and a "disaster" for DIS.

"I don't know if it's a win-win," offered jeans-clad Guy Adami, citing the "11th-hour" deal and how DIS traded. Guy said you could possibly argue that CHTR has some momentum, but DIS has none.

Star guest Rich Greenfield said "Disney had to do this deal."

What nobody talks about anymore is how CNBC hosts spent years (from about 2013 to 2019) declaring how "Oh if Disney launches a streaming service I'll definitely pay whatever it costs, with my kids ..." while wondering why Bob Iger dragged his feet forever (he also didn't attempt to buy NFLX, which every guest would recommend), but despite everyone's enthusiasm for this Disney service, Iger correctly figured out that as a business model, it doesn't work (it would actually make a lot more sense to fold Disney+ and charge NFLX gobs of money to stream Disney content) and he didn't want it and so he got outta Dodge and left the mess for Chapek (who, of course, didn't last), so Bob regained the job envisioning "I can make a couple more deals like Marvel and LucasFilm" and had a fresh start that is quickly going as stale as the Chapek Era as Bob is most likely concluding that Disney+ is going to be outsourced to one of the Magnificent 7.

Can Mary Barra turn a wrench?

A rather provocative statement about the practice of automaking — which is NOT affected by streaming (mostly) — was made on Monday's (9/11) Halftime Report when Jim Lebenthal bluntly stated that Detroit is going right back to 2008. (Not the Lions. (Look up that season; it was historic.) The cars.)

Jim mentioned the "potentiality (snicker) for an auto workers strike," which he said would be an "ugly scene."

Jim said the UAW, in the fine print, is pushing pensions and a 32-hour work week.

That would be "a reversion back to what actually sent the auto manufacturers into bankruptcy 25 years ago- excuse me, 15 years ago," Jim stated.

But Jim also thinks that in a "highly competitive" global auto market, these automaker negotiations could be a "Waterloo moment" in that public opinion could turn against unions for "asking too much." (We don't know if unions are asking for too much, but we highly doubt that public opinion is going to be a "Waterloo moment.")

"But they have leverage," countered Joe Terranova, adding that unions are in a position they haven't had "probably since the late 1990s."

Jim said there should be a "meaningful raise" in the UAW contracts, but it's the "throwback to pensions" and shorter workweek that "just don't make sense in today's environment."

Jim added that there's "overcapacity" in Chinese auto manufacturing and how China is "flooding Europe" with cheap vehicles.

However the automaker contracts are settled, "It's gonna lead to price increases across the board," said Stephanie Link.

Nothing says risk management like Method Man (or ‘Mastering Pizza Dough’)

On Monday's (9/11) Halftime Report, guest-hosted by Leslie Picker (we think for the first time), CNBC's Bob Pisani conducted ETF Edge at Josh Brown's conference in Huntington Beach in which Brown turned up in T-shirt and shorts and viewers wondered, based on Brown's comments, what anyone was doing at this conference besides partying with each other.

Josh correctly stated that it's not so much about presentations but that the one thing financial pros want to do is get together in person. "Everyone coming here wants to be part of the future," Brown said.

Bob asked Jan Van Eck, who runs the SMH and took part in the "beach" interview with Brown, when he'll start buying ARM. Van Eck said "ETFs want liquidity" and that "right now," ARM is a bit under the threshold for being considered "liquid" in the public markets.

Bob twice referred to "Wu-Tang Clang (sic)."

Meanwhile, Joe Terranova, who was at Post 9 and not Huntington Beach (nor was Ackman, apparently), predicted we'll see a "chase for performance" in Q4 that's led by megacap tech.

Joe said, "My ownership of, of Tesla is, is equal weight in its nature (snicker)." Joe said you have to "size the position accordingly" to manage the volatility in the stock. (Or you just have to buy low and sell high.) (Or as Joe would put it, Buy high and sell higher.)

Stephanie Link said that to buy TSLA at this multiple, you "have to really buy in" to the autonomy future.

Anastasia Amoroso said she doesn't see any catalyst for gold to break out of its $1,600 to $2,000 range.

Joe made a nice statement about 9/11.

Just what every investor should do — look at charts without revealing the company and then make a buy/sell decision

Friday's (9/8) Halftime Report, which Judge missed (yet again), had "long weekend" feel to it (even though it wasn't really a long weekend; that was the previous weekend), exemplified by Jonathan Krinsky actually telling guest host Dom Chu that the 2023 market "continues to be kind of a tale of 2 cities." (But what does he really think ... at the end of the day ...)

Dom Chu offered Tom Lee's outlook as "fodder" and "balance" for the Krinsky conversation. Dom said Lee sees "tailwinds" in September.

Krinsky insisted the August lows "are in play."

Steve Weiss said it's never the last econ reports that matter, but always "the next one."

Asked to address AAPL, Bryn Talkington offered, "If you just took the name off the stock- off the stock and just looked at the chart ... would you buy that stock? No, because technically it looks weak."

Dom asked Weiss about TSLA put options. Weiss said it's "kinda strange" that Xi is demonstrating that he "doesn't know what he's doing." Weiss made a clumsy mystery quiz comparison of TSLA's multiple vs. the NVDA multiple (though he did make a good joke about TSLA shorts having to go drive for UBER).

Weiss grumbled that David Solomon didn't acknowledge him when they were riding bikes the previous Sunday.

Weiss said XPO is a good hold, but he wouldn't put new money into it.

Jason Snipe said he'd sell GOOGL as a "seasonality" trade.

Bryn made COWZ her Final Trade; a while back, that one tripped up Judge.

Judge doesn’t mention NFL opener until the 54th minute of the program

Josh Brown on Thursday's (9/7) Halftime Report hilariously called CHPT "one of the worst-run companies I've ever seen. Everyone involved in it should be ashamed of themselves."

Judge goaded Josh to say a bit more. Brown said, "They literally don't know what they're doing."

Meanwhile, the front-and-center topic of the day ... again ... for no real reason that we can tell ... was AAPL.

Stephanie Link said AAPL is "so overowned." (Especially by the guys in Omaha.) Stephanie admitted it's been "painful" to only have a 1% stake in AAPL this year.

Jim Lebenthal predicted AAPL will "go lower," but he doesn't see a "crash." Jim said he doesn't know anyone anymore who's got an Android phone.

Judge questioned Jim's statement that AAPL is a "falling knife."

Stephanie Link would be "more than happy" to buy AAPL down 15-20%, though she may not have "confidence" in the multiple at that point. "And oh by the way" she'd buy META too if it falls.

For the overall market, Jim again predicted a "face-ripping rally, 4th quarter."

And Jim again said GS has "some hair on it." He might be interested, but "not without a little bit more of that hair being shaved off of it."

Bill Baruch has been doing well on Halftime and was at Post 9 on Thursday but had a quiet show. Neither Bill nor anyone else opined on Belski's 5,050 (see below).

Belski, Liz bluntly declare that valuation does not drive stock prices

You knew it was probably going to be a lackluster version of the Halftime Report Wednesday (9/6) given that 1) it's still a holiday week and 2) Judge opened the festivities asking whether we need to "worry" about AAPL.

But Brian Belski and Liz Young managed to come up with a doozie.

Belski stated, "Valuation is the worst predictor of future performance."

That is, basically, undeniably true, a point this page has made many times. (Yes, it undoubtedly sent shock waves around wherever Jenny Harrington or Stephanie Link or Jim Lebenthal were watching the show.) It's notable that someone would make the point so bluntly.

But that wasn't all. Liz added, "I think valuations are a bad timing mechanism, in the sense that you shouldn't make a buy or sell decision today based on where something is trading."

Couldn't get more specific than that. P.E. ratios are not indicative of where a stock is going.

Liz also said of valuations, "But they are suggestive if you look over a longer-term period, 5 to 10 years, of what forward returns might be." Actually, we doubt that's true.

Whatever happened to that crushing lag effect of 75-bip rate hikes that several panelists have been promising us?

In the 22nd minute of Wednesday's (9/6) Halftime Report, Liz Young said that "we're 14 months out from yield-curve inversion" and "this is exactly when the bad stuff starts happening. So when I hear people suggest that this time is different, we might look back on this and say, 'You know what, this time turned out to be exactly the same.'"

Hearing commentary from other panelists, Steve Weiss wondered if Judge would give him time to "call Druckenmiller and Tepper and tell 'em macro doesn't matter."

During a bank discussion, Joe Terranova said, "I wouldn't own any of the regional banks right now." Liz Young said, "The way that banks have traded ... there's no appetite for buying."

Joe thinks FANG/FAANG is still the term (a/k/a it changed to Magnificent 7 this year)

On Wednesday's (9/6) Halftime Report, Joe Terranova rephrased Judge's question about whether we need to "worry" about AAPL and opined that the stock is just "middling or muddling (either one) around somewhat in this sideways (sic 'sideways' is basically redundant before 'range') range."

Brian Belski said that to get an "impact" on your portfolio from AAPL, "you have to be overweight AAPL," which Belski says is "very dangerous" (snicker) (does Berkshire Hathaway know that?).

Judge then asked Steve Weiss about AAPL, "If the revenue growth is declining, and the multiple is increasing, don't we have a problem?"

Weiss said if you stripped away the name of "Apple" and asked people what they'd pay for this business, "you'd pay half the multiple." (Yes, because every stock should be viewed as a chart with just a couple of numbers with no name or description of what it does.)

Weiss said Tim Cook has been "a master at dealing with the Chinese government."

Liz Young asserted that "we're not in a friendly environment for those high multiples," which, quite frankly, was the opposite of what Joe Terranova was suggesting a day earlier (see below).

Judge asked if the market is "too complacent" given Marko Kolanovic's curious warning about geopolitical risks (which Marko has some kind of inside knowledge on, apparently). Weiss said the market is too complacent and went on to mention the "slowing down in the economy."

Judge questioned, "Where is the great slowdown in the economy."

"I didn't say 'great,'" Weiss said.

Weiss said we can't get away from the fact that higher rates "are taking more and more market share, so to speak, from, from your budget."

Brian Belski made the argument for his 5,050 year-end "bull case" (that's a clever number), stating, "There's no way you're/we're (not quite sure) in a bubble," because in a bubble, every dart thrown at a board hits something going up.

In Final Trades, even Brian Belski is buying UBER. (This writer is long UBER.) Joe wouldn't give the ticker symbol for Diamondback Energy because he thought people would think it's something else.

Joe suggests rate expectations could give surge to Cathie Wood-type names

Joe Terranova started to raise an interesting point on Tuesday's (9/5) Halftime Report, though Judge didn't spend a whole lot of time on it.

Josh Brown bought ZM, first explaining it's a "trade" and is "breaking out of a 6-month consolidation." However, Brown went on to say there was a "fundamental" reason to look at the chart — his shop had been working with Ring Central and its "not great" customer service and found ZM to be good at "compliant telephony solutions." (That may well be true but seems a reach as an investment thesis.)

Joe said that, hearing this trade, he's "just wondering" if these "growth stocks that are not profitable" are going to be back in vogue if the belief is that the Fed is done.

Josh cut in to tell Joe that ZM has a 16 forward P.E. and "this is not an unprofitable stock."

Joe said, "OK."

Judge did at least, briefly, catch on to what Joe was saying, asking Joe if he was talking about "the Cathie Wood-type names." Joe indicated he was, stating, "Maybe they get some relief."

Josh though cut in again to say "it's not the same Zoom" as it was during the pandemic, about 3 or 4 times.

For the 4th time (7/14, 7/24, 8/10), Jenny says Disney is like New York City (a/k/a Only 1 company wins at streaming; the rest are spending gobs of money for Oscars invitations)

Jenny Harrington on Tuesday's (9/5) Halftime Report said Wells' DIS price cut to $110 is "rational."

Jenny then went into her DIS saveget (this is where AI could save the show some time) and suggested you could buy DIS at 20 times EBITDA for "just the parks" and you'd be "ignoring the fact it's got 200 million streaming customers." (It would be good to ignore, actually, because that's the problem, all those streaming costs.)

Jenny, striking in Miami Dolphin-Aqua, said that like META a year ago, analysts "are really ignoring the cost-cutting story here" at DIS and once again offered her mathematical route of $7 earnings-times-20 multiple=$140.

Judge admitted in the DIS conversation that they've "talked about it a lot lately."

Joe Terranova pointed to DIS' 79.07 low of March 2020, so the "technical factor" in the stock "obviously looks awful."

"Disney has to re-create themselves," Joe asserted, and Jenny took issue with that. "I think we've seen really successful companies like Disney be experts at evolution. And 're-creating' is becoming something different," Jenny said.

Jenny added, "I think it's like New York City. You don't bet against New York City when they're in the dumps."

‘I think we make a lot of this stuff up’

On Tuesday's (9/5) Halftime Report, Judge brought up Mike Wilson's claim that "the price is wrong" (snicker), which Judge said is Mike's "whole call, all along."

Joe Terranova offered, "I think Mike could be right for the month of September. ... I just disagree with what Mike's view is overall."

Joe said he doesn't want to be "defensive" in this market. Judge harangued Joe over CSCO and the definitions of "growth" and "defensive growth."

Then Joe uncorked a headline-making comment, stating, "I think we make a lot of this stuff up. What happened to megacaps being bond proxies? They're not bond proxies anymore? ... I just think we make a lot of this stuff up sometimes."

Well, yes, although, by "we," Joe wasn't referring (mostly) to the show's panel ... but rather the strategist industry that tries to get mentioned by the show's panel ... (it's called "marketing.").

Meanwhile, "I think we're still stuck in a range," said Jenny Harrington at the top of the show.

Judge asked Joe if the market has "adequately" priced in the Fed "chorus" that rates are high enough. "I don't think at the end of the day it really should be mattering (sic) (snicker) to investors," Joe curiously said.

"It matters for rates ... Rates matter more than anything!" Judge said.

Joe said that "we're beginning to grow comfortable" with higher-for-longer rates.

Josh Brown noted the amount of analysis about September typically being rocky. "That's well and good, but stocks bottom in September a lot of the time," Josh said.

Joe said to capture the breakout in energy prices, you need to be in "higher-beta" stocks; if you're using CVX and XOM, you'll be "disappointed." Josh Brown said, "Totally agree."

Josh predicted a "bona fide technical breakout" for IEO.

Joe touted the "premier brand" of LULU but said basically nothing that would prompt someone to buy or sell the stock.

Josh Brown said he doesn't like the "setup" for the ARM IPO.

Jim predicts ‘face-ripping 4th-quarter rally’

As would be expected, Friday's (9/1) pre-holiday and Judge-less Halftime Report was fairly quiet, though Jim Lebenthal did make a rather headline-making prediction.

"I think you're gonna have a face-ripping 4th-quarter rally," Jim asserted, but he thinks that right after Labor Day, investors may be a little concerned about the consumer.

As for the jobs report, Jim said "I have a hard time calling this Goldilocks 'cause there were some warts in here."

Rob Sechan stated, "I think we know that a recession has at least been delayed."

Yes, Stephanie Link talked up AVGO.

Stephanie Link said LULU is "killing it" and has "zero mentions of shrink," but the multiple is lofty. Jim said he prefers NKE to LULU. Rob Sechan said he's in "defensive retail" including AZO, ORLY, HD and LOW.

Jim said he likes JPMorgan's upgrade of VALE. Rob owns COP and said energy is a "real geopolitical hedge."

It's been a couple days, so the panel was due to discuss DIS, for one reason or another. Jim said he doesn't want to add more DIS now; "there's a lot of hair on this," he said, mentioning, yet again, "the Hulu deal." Jim said the Disney-Charter dispute is "disastrous for Charter." Stephanie Link isn't buying DIS either.

Jim predicted "news comin' out in September" on the CLF bid for X.

While Judge has been away often this summer, Halftime has been blessed with some excellent guest-hosting, from Frank Holland to Dom Chu to Court Reagan, who easily handled the reins Friday.

So the ‘math’ is preventing a bull market

Judge on Thursday's (8/31) Halftime Report said August is "really a tale of 2 months" (groan) and started asking panelists if the bulls are in charge.

Josh Brown tentatively said yes, but it's dependent on earnings, and, "There have been a lot of retail blowups."

Then Judge turned to Jenny Harrington, which of course means a speech. "The math right now doesn't work for the bulls to continue their momentum," Jenny declared.

So ... math is going to stop people from buying things this fall?

Jenny said "math" about 4 or 5 times.

Jason Snipe said he agrees with Jenny "to a certain extent" (Zzzzzz) and said, "We might be choppy for the next couple weeks."

Seems like determining which retailer is going to start doing better is harder than ranking them with color bar charts

Jenny Harrington on Thursday's (8/31) Halftime Report told Judge it's "fun" to keep a list of retail winners and losers; Jenny says there are 13 winners and 11 losers.

"That's- That's easy? Having 13 winners and 11 losers? That doesn't sound like it's so easy to pick," Judge said.

"Oh, given what we'd expect?" Jenny said, arguing the "narrative" is "overly negative."

(We're not really sure what that means ... so Jenny's keeping a chart of retailers showing whether they went up or down after earnings, which then tells us whether they were underpriced over overpriced?

Jenny also mentioned Victoria's Secret. Judge said it doesn't matter what these stocks did at the beginning of the year if they're starting to roll over. As Jenny continued to argue about all kinds of "reset" situations, Judge shrugged that Victoria's Secret actually got a downgrade Thursday as Jenny kept interrupting.

Judge said the conclusion to him seems to be that Jenny is "hard-pressed" to make the case to buy apparel or retail now. Jenny said, "My point was, you can cherry-pick."

Jason Snipe touted COST.

Evidently Judge should turn to poetry to go from discussing ANET to MMM

Judge on Thursday's (8/31) Halftime Report said some tech companies have recently gotten a "reality check" that if they're not in the "AI narrative," they're getting "left behind," not only in sales, but "just where all the chat is goin'."

Josh Brown concedes he's "paying up" for ANET, but it's a "unique situation." Jason Snipe, who also owns the name, said ANET is benefiting from cloud spending.

The panel erupted in laughs for some reason when Judge pivoted to asking Jenny about MMM; Jenny claimed "there was no segue" from ANET to MMM.

Jenny concluded, while laughing, that 3M is "the opposite of AI."

Josh Brown said DG margins are never great even in the "best of times," and after a couple years of "historic consumption," these are the types of stocks that get "squeezed the worst."

Josh is long CHPT but is "not excited" about it. Jenny wondered, why not sell it. "I probably will," Brown said.

Jason Snipe made the fill-the-SPR argument for CVX in Final Trades. Josh Brown predicted a "5-handle" at year-end for UBER. (This writer is long UBER.)

Weiss buying more DKS

NVDA's been doing great for a week, making Jim Lebenthal's recent buy look smart.

Jim wasn't on Wednesday's (8/30) Halftime Report, but other panelists couldn't stop gushing about the stock.

Bryn Talkington said NVDA is experiencing "this moment in time." Joe Terranova said he thinks NVDA is "more towards being cheap" than expensive. Evidently it is, as even Steve Weiss said he just bought it.

Joe credited Josh Brown (who wasn't on the show) for touting GOOGL this year, which Joe said is "certainly outperforming year to date Apple and Microsoft, and it's cheaper."

Meanwhile, Bryn said it's all about "what's going on with bonds."

Joe said he likes that Wednesday's trading "did not go back deeply into yesterday's trading range," which creates "validity" in the recent move higher.

Judge said "we can't get too far ahead of ourselves," let's see what PCE is.

Judge said Tom Lee expects 2-3% gains "this month" (sic according to the note on screen, Lee made this prediction for September). Weiss acknowledged momentum has returned but cautioned the "scorecard" doesn't include light volume and CPE and other data will still guide the market, so no one should get "too euphoric."

Weiss said that since 1920, in September, "The average decline is 1%." And that "October usually ends up."

Joe explained how consumer discretionary is strong and said the word "checklast" (sic meant "checklist").

Weiss bought more DKS; "I just thought it was oversold." He's taken a "pretty decent-sized position."

Weiss said BABA could double with China's easing.

Joe lamented how TXN has lagged the SMH this year. Joe thinks Stacy Rasgon's downgrade is "on to something."

Joe said all 34 analysts covering CRM "increased estimates after last quarterly earnings."

YouTube ‘is about 8½% of all TV viewing’

On Tuesday (8/29), it was curious that, during the Halftime Report, Judge talked about GOOGL vs. MSFT since January ... and then a couple hours later on Closing Bell, made the same point to a different crew.

(It's kind of like watching "Gilligan's Island," and then immediately after, watching the same plot be performed by the actors on "Star Trek.")

Judge on Halftime explained that months ago, the GOOGL narrative was, "They lost the race to AI before everybody even got to the starting gate." And that Brad Gerstner came on the show May 1 (Judge is correct about that date; Gerstner was also on later that month) and said "they dropped the ball." But GOOGL is up 38% since Jan. 23 while MSFT is up 36½%.

"I said that for like 3 months!" Josh Brown told Judge.

"YouTube is bigger than Netflix," Josh stated, adding YouTube "is about 8½% of all TV viewing."

Judge concluded, "Oh what a difference 7 to 8 months makes." (Groan.)

Jim Lebenthal thanked Josh for his argument; Jim is "overweight" GOOGL.

Stephanie Link said she didn't understand paying AAPL's high multiple. Judge said, "Maybe you will on September 12th."

Eventually the AI conversation got back, as it generally does, to Stephanie talking up AVGO because it's got a lower P.E. ratio than other AI names.

Jim said "most companies already have SalesForce," which could keep a lid on growth.

When every sale is a gain (cont’d)

Jim Lebenthal on Tuesday's (8/29) Halftime Report said the stock market rally will resume "if the Fed is done."

Josh Brown said it seems like the Investment Committee "absolutely nailed this summer."

"The VIX is down 15% in the past week," Josh noted.

Judge showed a little chart showing forward P.E. ratios of Big Tech have come in recently.

In the category of sales, Josh exited BROS; "I've been wrong for a while." He said BROS has fired the CEO, who "really failed" at talking to Wall Street. Stephanie Link sold SBUX and of course began with how much money she made on it ("I took gains ... I was up 57%"). She's a little concerned about "pricing power."

Jim said if he gets 10% lower on NKE, "I am in, big."

On the other hand, "Nike's probably a 52-week low coming very soon," said Josh Brown. "If you're a trader, there's nothing here to do."

Josh indicated that DIS and SBUX basically have the same type of ownership base. Stephanie though noted "Disney has huge competition. Starbucks has no competition." (Stephanie revealed that she sold DIS and of course "made a little bit of money.")

Bob Pisani discussed the ruling in the Grayscale case that "certainly puts pressure on the SEC." Josh Brown suggested the rally in COIN because of this is "very counterintuitive."

Jim made the "have to fill the SPR" argument for energy and touted RIG again.

Weiss is referring to that company that Henry Winkler touts in ads about every 10 minutes during the evening news

On Monday's (8/28) Halftime Report, Jim Lebenthal said a "negative catalyst" for big pharma is "about to get out of the way," meaning that on Friday, the government's going to announce which 10 drugs it's going to "force negotiations on" thanks to the IRA bill (which did tons to reduce inflation) of last year.

Steve Weiss again made the argument for how anti-obesity drugs are going to revolutionize health care.

Then Weiss said he's been "negligent" in not disclosing that he's had a stake in APLS. He explained why the stock fell (apparently the needles were the problem, not the medication) and said he bought in the 30s and 40s and thinks it can get back to 80-90. (That stock has quite a 3-month range.)

If you're not into that stock, maybe you can be "Down with Rybelsus."

‘Alleged love’

Amy Raskin on Monday's (8/28) Halftime Report detailed how she sold DIS a couple times this year, though she thinks the quarter was "pretty good" and that "they're doing a lot of the right things." (Oh sure. Please name one of them.)

Amy said the company is beloved worldwide (she said "love" or "loved" about 5 times) and it's "probably more of a buy than a sell" even if "there's a lot of noise in the near term."

Judge countered that there's been a "disconnect" between the stock and this "alleged love," and those 2 words were actually Judge's funniest line in months.

Joe Terranova said Disney's troubles trace back to the early stages of Disney+. He said it couldn't get to growth-company status and now is "more of a value company" and if Iger weren't there, would be in "a more punishing place." (That's a pretty good observation; exactly where would DIS be if it were still Chapek.)

Joe explains why he’s choosing different cybersecurity stocks than the one in the JOET

Joe Terranova on Monday's (8/28) Halftime Report told Judge that the market can get its momentum back, and it will.

Joe pointed out that the market has "really gone nowhere" since ... Wednesday.

Steve Weiss though said the market has to "thread the needle." He thinks we're in a "pause," and he thinks it'll be "quite some time" before the market regains momentum.

Judge said yields are "the biggest wild card." Amy Raskin said we're in a period of "digestion" or "choppiness," and she expects a "trickky" autumn.

Jim Lebenthal said he's surprised no one was talking about the retail reports of last week. (Maybe because individual retailers' reports flip on a dime and there's always some struggling retailer out there giving grist to all those folks who come on CNBC and declare "THE CONSUMER IS TAPPED OUT!!!!!" and the next thing you know, they're buying just as many Christmas presents as last year.) But compared with a year ago, the 200-day trend is positive, Jim said.

Joe said NVDA has authorized gobs of money for buybacks that "buffers the downside" to the stock.

Amy said the reaction to NVDA earnings was "very worrying." Amy said she wouldn't be looking at megacap tech for market "leadership."

Smiling newfound NVDA long Jim said you can point to "lackluster" single days for NVDA, but "by no means do I think Nvidia is done reaching new highs." Jim said he'd "happily" add more on a pullback.

Weiss bought more META on Friday. "You have to buy these when they're down," Weiss explained.

Weiss said he was thinking about buying more GS Monday. He thinks it'll be higher in 6 months.

Joe talked about CRWD and his longtime favorite company, "Palo Alto," saying he owns them because hack attacks will only "increase."

Joe said CRWD is good at "threat hunting" (that's correct, not "thread hunting," which might apply to anyone looking up the most inane debates in internet chatgroups). Joe said cybersecurity is an "actionable" theme in this market. Judge retraced Joe's history with "Palo Alto."

But here's where things got interesting. It seems Joe personally owns CRWD and PANW, while the JOET owns FTNT.

Joe said he "realized" after PANW's earnings, "let's stop trading" these cybersecurity names and just "be" in them.

But Joe admitted the JOET owns FTNT, which he said is "more short-term-oriented."

Leslie Picker late in the show reported that Tiger Global says a "disgruntled former employee" circulated some kind of pdf with all kinds of troubling-sounding details.

Weiss said Tiger is not a "train wreck" but had its "biggest issues" in the private market spreading money around to companies with high valuations. "They're gonna recover," Weiss predicted.

Jim again made the step back/step forward case for BA in Final Trades. Weiss is standing by BABA.

Joe says inflation ‘transitory’

On Friday's (8/25) Halftime Report, Richard Fisher, who resembles the sportscaster/announcer in "Rocky" movies Stu Nahan, said of the Fed, "There's a lot of uncertainty there."

This tedious and redundant conversation, full of naval and other analogies, basically amounted to nothing more than Fisher saying who knows what they're going to do but Jay Powell is a good skipper. (Then again, there was far more information in that conversation than in the later one with Austan Goolsbee, who refused to predict even that the sun would rise in the east the next day.) (That's not exactly true, but close.)

Fisher did predict that the first rate cut won't happen until "late next year."

Meanwhile, Joe Terranova offered, "It's still a sell-the-rips market. Chairman Powell did nothing more than read me yesterday's newspaper."

Joe called Powell "a classic example of a trader who is right but early." Joe said inflation will "prove to be transitory."

Jim Lebenthal seemed to agree with Judge's suggestion that Powell was "neutral."

Rob Sechan said "traders" liked NVDA's report but investors decided to be "mindful of risk."

Rob suggested that if "tech starts to break," we could see "some massive declines."

On the other hand, Kari Firestone suggested "a lot of people" don't own Big Tech "and could start to buy them."

Kari said the Fed hasn't "caused a recession." Kari said "neutral is the right word."

Joe agrees with Loop Capital's upgrade of NFLX; he agrees it could go to $500. Judge wondered why the JOET got out of it. "We have rules that we follow, and the rules have worked for us to date," Joe explained, reciting how impressively the JOET traded this name (which apparently means it's always going to buy this name low and sell high).

Jim said "general malaise" is what's keeping DIS down. Rob shrugged that DIS is "broken," and he's "not interested" in wading into it.

Jim said he trimmed HD. He wants some "dry powder" for a pullback. Jim's hoping to get NKE at a forward multiple of 24.

Rob Sechan's Final Trade was COP, citing a "golden cross."

Jenny continues her strange war against ... buying NVDA

"Value" investor Jim Lebenthal on Thursday's (8/24) Halftime Report said he was buying NVDA on Tuesday.

"I'm gonna build this position over time," Jim explained, saying there "appears to be no limit" for Nvidia chip demand. (We're not sure why he didn't come to that very same conclusion months ago, but whatever.)

Jim said the "technique" for getting a position in a name like this is to "patiently find your spots."

Then Jim concluded his remarks, "You have to own this stock."

That comment got the attention of Jenny Harrington, who couldn't wait to dive in to a discussion on this name.

"Where I disagree with Jim is on his statement that you must own it," Jenny told Judge. "I will stand by forever (don't have to do that), you don't need to ever own anything. There are other things to own."

Well, let's be a little realistic here. Jim was not literally saying that everyone must own NVDA. Rather, he's basically saying, if you're picking a pool for NFL MVP, you "have to" include Pat Mahomes ... it doesn't mean that Mahomes is definitely going to win or that no one else will outperform.

Anyway, Judge pointed out that Jenny's growth portfolio owns INTC and not NVDA. Jenny said they own XPO and META and UBER, "so you don't need to own Nvidia to still do really well." (Fine. Why are you complaining about someone else owning Nvidia?) (Why does Jenny complain about other people's stocks more than anyone else on the panel, even Josh Brown.) (Why is a long-term investor boasting about supposedly outdoing the NVDA longs for one day by outsmarting them with KSS?) (This writer has no position in NVDA.)

Judge asked Jenny, "How much are you outperforming the S&P 500 this year with this strategy and the stocks you own."

Jenny said, "In our disciplined growth strategy ... that benchmarks the S&P 500, that's the one that owns the XPO, the META, we're about 2% ahead of the S&P 500 without owning Nvidia."

(OK. That's interesting. Because back on May 18, Jenny said, "I know we're not allowed to talk about performance on the show ... I'm not allowed to talk about that. Like the SEC comes down on you or whatever.") (Translation: "Not allowed" to talk about it when underperforming; talk all we can about it when 2% ahead.)

"OK," Judge said. "If you've really wanted to outperform this year (is there anyone who hasn't?), yes, you have had to own Nvidia and Apple and a lot of these megacap stocks-"

"No. Outperform dramatically? ... if your benchmark's the S&P 500, you can outperform without owning all of those. You do not have to own Nvidia," Jenny repeated.

(So if all these idiots are buying NVDA instead of the stocks that Jenny prefers, why doesn't she keep letting them be idiots and stop complaining about them??)

Judge is basically right. It's true, as Jenny claims, you COULD "outperform" by owning zero megacap tech, but assuming you have some kind of diversified portfolio, it just seems like a low statistical probability.

Jenny apparently was knocking instant results from NVDA. "If it CAN'T move up in a significant way following THAT earnings report, where do you go. And maybe you need to go bottom-fishing," Jenny actually said with a straight face.

Jenny went on to say that' it's "super important" to the NVDA story that "competition's coming, guys." Jenny claimed AMD's Mi-300 was launched in June and is a "direct competitor for Nvidia."

Josh Brown 3 times chimed in to say, "No it's not." Jenny continued saying Amazon and Meta and Google all have AI chips and that Intel is working on them.

CNBC's gorgeous Kristina Partsinevelos sat in at Post 9 and said in 2023 in the NVDA-AI space, "There is no competition" and that a "huge issue" for AMD's chip, which Kristina said is planned for Q4, is the "ecosystem" that surrounds it, which Kristina said isn't easy to transfer.

Making his own statement on NVDA, Josh Brown said it's not "hyperbolic," but then indulged in hyperbole, claiming "we haven't seen anything like this in probably 25 or 30 years."

Brown marveled at how, after analyst questions during the Nvidia call, Jensen Huang came back on the line to deliver a "4 minute summation."

"This is not done. This is not normal," Brown explained.

Josh mentioned "blockchain" during the Nvidia discussion; honestly, it may be the first time we've heard "blockchain" on the show this year.

Does. Jenny. Ever. Stop. Talking.

Judge on Thursday's (8/24) Halftime Report asked Jenny Harrington about retail stocks.

Jenny said that retail stocks are "all about valuations and the expectations behind what's coming at you. ... So you actually have a bunch of companies that were up a lot, and it just had to do with like, the fact that they were trading at under 15 times, in some cases under 10 times, and the expectations were horrendous." (Ah. OK. So P.E. ratio is a driver of retail stock prices. Of course, Judge didn't challenge this.)

Judge questioned the reliability of analyzing retailers. "I honestly don't know how, how anybody does any work on these names, like how can you get from Point A to Point B," including effect from "shrink," Judge said.

Jenny again talked up VFC, which she thought was a "reasonably easy ... research process." (Sure, its high dividend can never be cut.)

Judge claimed, "Valuation alone though ... is no way enough," citing M and FL. Jenny went on to explain why FL has fallen (overrated CEO, apparently).

Jim Lebenthal said "there's a pretty good chance" he'll get into NKE around $90. If he misses it and it goes to $120, "so be it."

At least Jenny didn’t say for the 4th straight time that betting against DIS is like betting against NYC

It's probably been about 4 days since the last DIS discussion on the Halftime Report, so Judge brought it up Thursday (8/24).

Jim Lebenthal said the Hulu "hangover" and ESPN are causing Disney's "malaise."

But Jim said the DIS estimates are "kind of forgiving" and it's "hard to sell it" right now.

Of course, Jenny Harrington defended the stock and said sentiment is just so bad and that with a 20 multiple, "the upside over the next few years should be $140."

Josh Brown though correctly said "ESPN will not be worth more in 2 years or in 5 years than it is today, and today it is worth much less than it was just 2 or 3 years ago," adding DIS must compete with Apple and Amazon and Netflix for sports rights.

"The only thing people are paying for is to watch sports," Brown declared, adding he's been saying for a while that DIS will be in "the 70s."

Jim said BA is in a "new regime" and at least making "net progress" despite having the steps backward to go with the steps forward.

Powell and the shower

Early in Thursday's (8/24) Halftime Report, Jim Lebenthal said Jay Powell is "more likely to maintain the hawkish bent," but the market doesn't "feel disastrous" to Jim.

Jenny Harrington argued that there's "no way" to extend the market multiple because "yields are in your way."

"So I don't see how the market goes higher," Jenny asserted, claiming, "a dovish Fed, is for all the wrong reasons, and that's negative."

Judge suggested that some say a "dovish Fed" is what they "should be."

Jim said the Fed thinks it can "get away with" another rate hike, but he hopes they're "done hiking."

Josh Brown made a curious analogy, stating "there are 2 types of people that get in the shower," some who just deal with a temperature that's "close enough to OK," and others "who have to twirl the knob every 2 seconds, and they never stop adjusting it, and that's Powell."

It wasn't until later that Steve Liesman came on to preview Jackson Hole; Steve noted recent rising rates and stated, "I don't think they have to match it on the short end on the funds rate."

Steve suggested Powell was under greater demand to talk tough a year ago than now. "If the market's bracing for a very hawkish statement tomorrow, I don't see a reason for him to give one," Steve said.

In the lead-in to the show, Seema Mody said "Nordstroms" (sic not actually possessive/plural).

DeSantis on stage next to Biden is going to seem to many Republicans like an easy win, but ...

A day after a steep DKS selloff, Steve Weiss on Wednesday's (8/23) Halftime Report said he actually again bought DKS, which was trading at 108 as Weiss spoke.

Weiss said he thinks DKS can "start over again," as the stock is "reasonably priced."

"Foot Locker's just a mess," Weiss also said, for some reason suggesting people may not yet understand that Foot Locker staff wear referee jerseys.

Judge said FL got "smoked" and pointed to NKE and DKS.

Joe Terranova said NKE has had a "critical breakdown in momentum." Joe said retail in its "entirety" is "so complicated."

Weiss said he still uses PTON; "our family has 3 bikes." He used the Pete Najarian term (long time since we've mentioned that name), that Pelotons become "clothes hangers."

Dubravko defends Marko

Dubravko Lakos, for some reason, was at Post 9 for Wednesday's (8/23) Halftime Report to explain the JPM market call not by himself ... but by Marko Kolanovic ... that was, according to Judge, "we don't see any upside from here (sic 2 words redundant) into year-end."

Dubravko said it's the "house call" and he thinks the market is "capped" for this year.

Dubravko confirmed what he told Judge's producers, that "a hard landing is inevitable."

Later, he said, "You could have a puke."

Weiss says Judge should just tell viewers what Weiss is saying

A big chunk of Wednesday's (8/23) Halftime Report centered on predicting NVDA's results.

Joe Terranova said NVDA can "change the game with one swing."

Liz Young said of Jackson Hole, "I actually think, if it's hawkish, that's probably OK, because that's what we're expecting." But "if it's dovish, it sends more of a message that they don't have the tools to solve the problem."

Judge said he's not so sure he agrees, that a dovish speech could be "takin' the air out of where rates have gone."

Liz then started to parse about what-ifs in the speech and what the market reaction(s) might be.

Steve Weiss said he wanted to "congratulate" all the "cutting-edge analysts" who've been "trying to trump each other" by raising NVDA targets while finding "nothing fundamentally different."

"You're just jealous. You're just mad you don't own it," Judge told Weiss.

"You must be particularly angry since you don't own any stocks at all," Weiss responded.

Judge said, "That means I feel pretty good, I mean, don't have to worry about it."

Weiss said "let's not overmake" NVDA's results other than for a short-term impact on certain tech names.

Judge wondered, "So you don't think that Nvidia's report last quarter mattered at all in the months that followed, 'cause, I mean, that's just- that's just not true."

"I'm not saying that. I'm not saying that. I'm not saying that," Weiss insisted.

"Well you have to be saying that. How can you not be saying that!" Judge demanded.

"No I don't have to be saying it," Weiss said.

"How can you not be saying that?" Judge persisted.

"Why don't I stop talking, and you just tell me what I'm gonna say," Weiss said.

Weiss went on to say that NVDA is not going to have the same "reset" of expectations like in the previous quarter.

Later, Weiss said he was able to get out of HUM "unscathed."

Weiss creeping up the bust leaderboard

It gives this site no pleasure to say it — but Steve Weiss suddenly looks like the clear front-runner for Halftime Report Bust of the Year given his recent touting of DKS.

We must note that Weiss was NOT pounding the table just a day earlier for this name just before the earnings report. Rather, he said it was about fairly valued, but to expect "more of the same," as it had been having a good year and a particularly good chart since 2020.

There have been other colossal mistakes this year (think Jenny Harrington and AAP, or in fact, Jenny Harrington and Lumen, over several years), but unfortunately in Weiss' case, this happened to be a fairly dramatic 1-day slaughter.

This page wants panelists on the show, as well as the viewers, to succeed, and despite how it may seem sometimes, doesn't want to trumpet busts.

But like they say, it is what it is.

Anyway, Judge on Tuesday (8/22) ushered in the DKS discussion saying the comps missed, and that "Steve Weiss missed." Weiss, dialing in because he wasn't part of the panel, said he detected some "glee" in Judge's voice. Judge insisted, "No I didn't, I really didn't, I'm serious though, I, like, what's up with this Weiss."

"It's my only retail exposure," Weiss explained, saying his target had been "about 150 or so," and "frankly, this is just, this is a, you know, an error that- that I made. You go back to the old adage, uh, bulls and bears, uh, you know, make money, pigs go broke."

Weiss added, "I got a little piggish. ... And I was wrong. ... Really no excuse for owning it given where my price target was."

Weiss said a third of DKS' earnings markdown is from "shrink," or "coordinated theft," and this was "the first time Dick's has mentioned it frankly on a call."

Judge expressed a lot of skepticism about that, stating, "This is like the kitchen shrink," adding that "everybody all of a sudden" is mentioning theft.

Weiss said it's "accurate" that shrink is an "epidemic." Judge seemed skeptical that "it's the first time they've experienced it?" Weiss said he doesn't know why they didn't mention it previously and then chuckled that Dick's isn't the place to steal stuff because "you can't steal 1 Air Jordan," though he suggested baseball bats might be targets (although if they really cost $200, they probably have got some tags on them).

Meanwhile, as for buying/selling DKS, which is probably the most important part of the conversation, Weiss said, "I do believe the stock will recover," though he doesn't know if it gets to 150. "I just don't think you sell it down here right now."

Judge said Macy's report was "ugly" too.

"I wouldn't touch a department store at all," said Stephanie Link.

Why are they talking about bull and bear scenarios in August; shouldn’t they be talking about stocks for 3-5 years?

At the top of Tuesday's (8/22) Halftime Report, Jason Snipe said there are "strong cases" for both bull and bear arguments and that Jay Powell needs a "hard balance."

"Interest rate reversion is obviously the biggest threat that we have right now," said Shannon Saccocia.

Josh Brown bought ANET as a "trade" because its gains have been "driving me crazy," and he wanted to own it ahead of NVDA's earnings. Jason Snipe predicted a "very solid" quarter from NVDA.

Josh said there's "2 main things" about NVDA's report, how much do the chips cost to make, and how much demand is being pulled forward. (Probably nothing about baseball bats being shoplifted.)

Judge mentioned the latest bank downgrade. Josh said he'll continue to be "very pessimistic" on the group. Brown said for 15 years, banks "got away with paying nothing to depositors," but now there's a "funding cost."

Stephanie Link advised a viewer that she'd "average down" in UPS.

Josh Brown said NEE has been a "dog," which is why he's been adding this year.

Stephanie Link said she bought CDW and ELAN. Jason Snipe offered SYK as his Final Trade.

Joe implies dividends don’t count in assessing bank stock performance (a/k/a when people compare charts starting 5 months apart)

Things got interesting on Monday's (8/21) Judge-less Halftime Report after the A Block when guest host Dom Chu brought up GS and asked Steve Weiss about GS unloading its investment adviser unit.

Weiss said he's glad GS is "getting out" of this "misguided foray" into consumer banking.

Weiss said "the bigger issue" is "what is David Solomon's future," adding he doesn't recall a CEO "under such assault by the press, uh, and clearly whispering from insiders that has been able to, you know, to survive." But Weiss thinks Solomon is a "survivor" and "will stay there."

Jim Lebenthal said he's "not tempted" to buy GS. Jim revealed, "I worked there from 1998 to 2004," and Jim said his father called GS way back then "the creme de la creme."

However, "I unfortunately don't think that's the case anymore," Jim said, stating that "significant damage has been done, uh, this century to the, the, uh, reputation of Goldman Sachs."

Jim then brought up a statistic that would rankle Joe Terranova. "During the 5 years that, uh, Mr. Solomon has been at the helm, the worst thing possible has happened," Jim said. "When Morgan Stanley outperforms your stock price by 2x during your tenure, you have a problem."

Given a chance from Dom, Joe said he had "a couple of different points here" that "we've gotta go through." Joe said he's owned MS "for the better part of the last 6 years." Joe also said GS "put the wrong foot into the consumer business."

But, "the numbers are the numbers," and Joe said GS was $170 in January 2019 when David Solomon became CEO. "The XLF at that point was 24; the XLF today is at 33. Morgan Stanley was in the low 40s. Morgan Stanley is 83 today. So has Morgan Stanley so significantly outperformed Goldman Sachs?"

Jim assured everyone he's "looking at the 5-year chart right here ... it's 2x ... this is FactSet."

Joe wondered about the chart since January 2019. Dom called for a "5-year chart" of GS vs. MS.

Joe then started to say "there seems to be this personality issue related to David Solomon."

Dom got the chart and cut Joe off and explained to Sirius XM listeners that he was showing a chart and said the 5-year return is 43% for GS, and for MS, it's "80 to 81%."

Joe claimed "there's probably dividends in there included" and conceded Jim is "right on that figure," but Joe was looking "purely" at price.

So we've got one guy claiming one stock has doubled the other's return. And another guy claiming the stock returns have been basically equal. Except for maybe dividends. That must be quite a dividend differential. (Yahoo! Finance says MS yields 4.01% and GS yields 3.39%.)

Joe said he's not sure that David Solomon has done "that bad" of a job.

Joe’s back in Palo Alto

Guest host Dom Chu on Monday's (8/21) Halftime Report asked Joe Terranova to talk about "Palo Alto."

That used to be one of Joe's favorite stocks to talk about, so much so that he mentioned it every other show for a while. Monday, Joe explained why he bought "Palo Alto" in the morning and how he "years ago" started trading around the name.

"Cybersecurity has been a thesis that I've believed in," Joe told Dom.

Joe said the JOET made a "bad purchase" of FTNT.

Steve Weiss said he hoped PANW would miss, but it didn't, so he'll "be patient" about adding. "I'm not tempted at this level," Weiss said.

On other matters, Jim Lebenthal actually said he's going to take a 1% position in NVDA "sometime in the next couple of days."

Joe called NVDA the "signature" of the 2023 stock-market rally.

Joe's opening speech about mortgage rates and bond rates was so long-winded, we gave up.

"This is seasonality that's happening here," said Jim Lebenthal.

Dom said he knows gasoline is going up every time he fills up, he asked Bryn Talkington why inflation isn't getting more attention. Bryn stated that "they take out food and energy," which didn't really answer the question; she said we have to "separate those." Bryn said bonds have been "disagreeing with stocks all year and last year."

Weiss said Powell will continue on the "same timeline."

Jim advised a viewer to stick with WYNN and claimed there's "no reason" for the shares to be below $100. Joe said HSY momentum is "broken." Weiss gave a viewer an "A" for buying GXO and said he'd add to it.

Weiss said he expects "more of the same" from DKS, but "it's getting fairly valued."

Judge (sorta) argues that Halftime Report is supposed to be a trading show

An interesting discussion about the Halftime Report's concept started to take shape Friday (8/18) when Brian Belski was talking about holding stocks for 3-5 years.

Judge cut in, "But see everybody, I mean- Look, but, anybody would come on and say, 'Well, if your time horizon is 3-5 years, it's a good time to buy stocks because they traditionally go up over a 3- to 5-year period. That doesn't help people that much, I don't think."

Josh Brown cut in to the conversation. "I would argue that it helps people more than, what's gonna happen for the rest of the month of August," Brown said.

"Well I'm not- who cares about the rest of the month of August. We can talk about the rest of the year. I think it's potentially more relevant than thinking, well just blanket advice, well, 3-5 years is great, earnings are gonna be much better 3-5 years from now than they are today," Judge responded.

"Wait till you see 10 years from now," Josh chuckled.

Kari has no idea what PYPL needs to do to turn the stock around

Viewers of Friday's (8/18) Halftime Report learned that Mizuho somehow thinks there's 50% upside in PYPL.

Judge replayed the recent clip of Josh Brown from this week calling PYPL a "huge value trap." (Josh said after the clip, in "fairness," he's been making that argument "for like the last year.")

Kari Firestone, who has long touted this name, said it's "the opposite of META" (which didn't really make any sense), then claimed that a while back, "everyone said" that META has "got nothing left" and it's a "disaster." (Translation: META turned it all around, so PYPL can too.) (Reality: PYPL is not META.)

Kari said PYPL has the "dominant market share in payments" but conceded it has been a "horrible stock." Then Kari made an interesting comment: "We're hoping that something happens."

Josh asked, "What do you want 'em to do."

Kari's response was, "We want to see them beat the numbers" and "start raising guidance." (Hmmmmm ... not sure there's a lot of ideas in that plan.)

Steve Weiss joined the dialogue, stating there's "no shortage of apps" that don't make money but are "going right after PayPal" regardless.

Josh cautioned, "You can't short it."

Kari acknowledged, "The clock is ticking."

Looks like they went an entire program without mentioning Cleveland-Cliffs

Josh Brown on Friday's (8/18) Halftime Report argued that rate expectations have not prompted August's selloff.

Brian Belski offered that recent earnings reports suggest "4,550 might be too low."

Kari Firestone said 4,200 would be "quite a swoon," and she doesn't think that's going to happen; rather, she thinks people will "begin to nibble" on tech names they've missed.

"I think the market's OK," Steve Weiss said, but he sees a "great opportunity" for trading.

Leslie Picker said, "I do trust robotaxis more than my own driving skills."

Judge was asking anyone within earshot about the timing of the PANW announcement. (It turned out OK. This review was posted overnight Friday-Saturday.)

Bill Baruch beamed in remotely to say he bought AAPL "10% from where we sold it."

Bill has also bought back ADBE "roughly where we sold it." He also bought ORCL. He said it's one he hasn't owned but it's done really well in 2023 and he thinks "the momentum will be there."

Why in the world would anyone want to own ... the world’s most powerful companies

Jenny Harrington on Thursday's (8/17) Halftime Report said she had an "interesting conversation yesterday morning" in a call with a "large foundation endowment," and they looked at the portfolio's exposure to AMZN, AAPL and META and they were "very very relieved" that they don't have "anywhere near market weight" in those 7 stocks.

Yes, that should give investors relief — that they're not in the best stocks.

Judge shrugged, "Well then you're underperforming dramatically though-"

"Not dramatically, interestingly," Jenny cut in.

"You have to be. Maybe not dramatically, but you're underperforming. I mean if you're not- if you're not overweight those stocks, I think what's, most have learned this year, painfully, if you haven't been in the 7 names, you're probably underperforming."

But Jenny asserted that "if you are a very very good manager ... it is absolutely possible to perform in-line with the market, or outperform, without those stocks." (Sure, if you got lucky with X instead of buying NVDA or META on Dec. 30 ... or if instead you tried Advance Auto Parts ... then ... you're still way behind.)

Jenny said URI and XPO "are up like 90% on the year" and that you don't "need" AAPL and NVDA to go up to carry the market.

Judge told Kevin Simpson that Judge's "pushback" to Jenny's argument could be that "the proof is in the pudding" and that "this notion that you don't, quote-unquote, need these 7 stocks to do well for the market to do well, given all of the other variables, I'm not so sure about that."

But Kevin sort of took up Jenny's statement, "I think what Jenny's point was is that there's plenty of other stocks that can move higher if you get a catch-up trade. So if the megatechs were over their skis, and I think they were and maybe still are, you've got plenty of other names that can move higher. (OK, that would make sense if Jenny were making a market-timing call. Jenny has actually been making that same argument every appearance on the program for the last decade.) So theoretically you could have an index that moves lower while still seeing a heckuva lot of names moving higher."

"Tell me why the 493 other names are gonna move higher," Judge told Simpson. "About 4 and a half percent GDP growth. That do anything for ya," Josh Brown cut in.

"Be careful how you view the Atlanta Fed's GDP now," Judge said.

Moments later, Simpson, who had just said that megatechs are "over their skis," nevertheless acknowledged he just bought some AAPL. "It's not a call on the megatech completely," Simpson said.

Jenny said TJX's earnings were up 6%, and AAPL earnings growth is projected at 6%. "Why not have 20 or 30 TJX's out there pick up the slack for Apple-"

"Because they won't," Judge bluntly stated. (Let's see ... next iPhone vs. ... discarded clothing.)

"OK but let Apple plateau," Jenny said, adding that her favorite non-tech stocks trade at "more reasonable valuations" than Big Tech.

So, as usual, viewers hear that ... no matter what the returns ... the folks who invest in Cleveland Cliffs and Stanley Black and Decker and Cisco Systems are better than the folks in megatech ... Because those are the people on the program, and the guy who runs the QQQ is not.

Jenny said she thinks of AAPL as a "proxy" for the Magnificent 7 or "8." Jenny said the market's "kinda surprisingly stable."

Josh Brown opened by talking about how this seems like a typical August in 3rd year of presidential cycles.

Zero-day options apparently not causing volatility; ‘a good thing’

Judge on Thursday's (8/17) Halftime Report actually did a Trade School (that's correct, the logo briefly appeared on screen) featuring Bob Pisani, who joined the set to discuss zero-day options.

Bob said there's "some public policy questions around this." Bob said "sophisticated retail investors" as well as institutions and market makers are using these options to make 1-day market bets. Bob said someone at Goldman says recent market volatility may be tied to these options.

But moments later, Bob told Josh Brown that Bob doesn't think this kind of trading caused the "recent swoon."

Josh thanked Bob for a "great report" and questioned whether the time of year is giving this activity "more of an emphasis than it would otherwise have."

Judge brought in Bill Baruch on video and noted Bill trades zero-day options. Bill said he's working on strategies for them; "you have to stay on top of things." Bill conceded, "There is some tail that wags the dog at times." Bill said, "Right now, I think it's- I think it is a good thing."

Jenny Harrington gave a short speech about how she analyzed the nation's health-care situation last year and found, "It all just doesn't make sense." Josh Brown said dealing with health care coverage, especially as a business owner, is a frustrating, time-consuming process. The health insurance conversation prompted Judge to mention Mark Cuban, first time in months if not years, just after this page coincidentally mentioned Mark's name.

Kevin Simpson bought more FCX, citing an "EV play." Jenny bought more SBRA and BGS. PANW, with a forward P.E. of 43 shown on the screen, is actually in Jenny's Disciplined Growth Strategy.

Josh Brown said whether the Fed hikes in September is "the least of our problems" because we're still getting the effects from January, etc.

CLF’s low offer got ‘Escarred’

In a couple years of touting CLF, Jim Lebenthal, to our knowledge, has never said "because it could buy X and it'd be a great deal."

But that's what he's saying this week on the Halftime Report, including Wednesday (8/16), when Jim asserted that CLF, rather than MT, is "the right, uh, uh, suitor" for X.

"The union only wants Cleveland-Cliffs to buy the company," Jim asserted, saying he doesn't think X management will allow an "international” takeover."

Jim told Judge that he's more worried about "anticompetitive" issues than a higher bid price for CLF.

Steve Weiss said he wouldn't write off Esmark, and the bidding war is "very, very interesting" given where rates are. He said he'd take some X (we think he meant X and not CLF) off the table if he owned it, and if he didn't own it, he'd "stay away" given that "it's always tough playing these" and that closing the deal will take time.

Jim countered that synergies with CLF are "so obvious" rather than any synergy with "Escar" (sic pronounced it that way twice).

Karen Finerman on Fast Money said "I don't know how it gets resolved," and though she's "sort of intrigued," she's not making a trade.

Market suddenly stopped being the easiest one to analyze, ever

Steve Weiss had the Compliment of the Week on Wednesday's (8/16) Halftime Report when he actually said Jim Lebenthal "called the market" during Judge's (endless) vacation and reduced exposure.

Weiss said he doesn't agree with Goldman's forecast of a Fed cut by next June.

Weiss also doesn't care about the 50-day and won't sell anything because of it.

Amid a lengthy speech, Weiss predicted a weakening economy as the … yes … long-awaited effects of the rate hikes kick in. "I'm market agnostic at this point because I can't figure it out. I don't know," Weiss admitted.

Hearing a lot of 5.8 this week

Once again struggling with a focal point, Judge started Wednesday's (8/16) Halftime Report talking about the Atlanta Fed's robust GDP forecast.

Joe Terranova said the question for the viewer is whether the summer correction seems like 2022 or 2019. (We wouldn't have chronicled this lengthy statement, except there wasn't much else to dig into.)

Joe said that in 2022, we had an "adversarial Federal Reserve" with a lot of hiking left to go. But in 2019, it was 3rd year of a presidency and the moving averages "all pointed higher" and "the need for capital ... is not as aggressive," so there's not the "sensitivity" on servicing debt with higher rates. Joe predicted an "extended correction through the ... early parts of October."

"It's just a different tone in the markets right now," offered Jim Lebenthal, who added that for this market to go "off the rails," it would happen if inflation "starts going the other way."

Jim said Jay Powell is getting “more than” a soft landing.

We’ve heard that betting against DIS is equivalent to betting against NYC

Judge on Wednesday's (8/16) Halftime Report insisted on discussing with Jim Lebenthal whether a tech rally would be "nice" or "necessary" for the markets to climb.

Jim asked not to have this "argument." Judge said it's not an "argument" and "we're gonna have it," because a tech rally is "necessary" for the market.

Jim insisted he doesn't care about the "next month." Judge said Jim will have a "hard time" convincing people to buy industrials such as CAT instead of AAPL.

"I love where you're going," Jim said, touting CLF and CVS. Judge said, rather incredulously, "You'd rather buy CVS today than, than one of these megacap-."

Jim chuckled in protest that he already has “plenty of CVS.”

Kari Firestone said she trimmed AAPL a couple months ago, and that "looked silly" for a while, then "became a good trade."

VFC up slightly since Josh mocked it

On Wednesday's (8/16) Halftime Report, Joe Terranova said he thinks "there's opportunity" in emerging markets.

Judge pointed out, "You're not buying China stocks."

Joe admitted the only "China stock" in the JOET is YUMC, and it's "lost significant momentum," and he admitted his "tendency" is not to buy China stocks, but you can do it for a "trade" (one that he sounds really convinced about).

Steve Weiss bought more BABA but sold BIDU. He predicted easing in China similar to what happened after December 2008. "He is going to cut massively," Weiss said of Xi.

Nothing about NVDA’s forward P.E., for a change

Judge on Wednesday's (8/16) Halftime Report said TJX hit a “new record high” (sic first word in that quote redundant) and is in the JOET.

Joe Terranova said he's done an "awful job" of personally trading WMT, but "you wanna be in Walmart."

Judge asked Steve Weiss about DKS. Weiss said it's been a "great stock" and one that can't be "disintermediated by online to any extent."

Weiss said a tech stock with TGT's chart would be on a "defibrillator," so he's "puzzled" why it's "working so well," given that it's "shedded all their inventory" to make better numbers.

Stephanie Link talked up TGT from Englewood Cliffs.

Karen Finerman on the 5 p.m. Fast Money was "surprised at the reaction" to TGT's earnings.

Meanwhile, Kristina Partsinevelos joined the table to report on the "lovefest" with NVDA.

Joe said he likes Mizuho’s upgrade of CVX, which is in the JOET. Kari Firestone bought more NEE "because the stock's come down."

Steve Weiss' Final Trade was BABA; Jim Lebenthal said CLF; Kari said BX and Joe said MS.

It’s been ages since Judge has landed Ackman, Mark Cuban, even Bill Gurley as guests

By the end of Tuesday's (8/15) Halftime Report, Judge was indeed saying "Good stuff," even though this sleepy program had no focal point and nothing to say.

Judge opened saying "front and center" was "the state of stocks." Is that ever not front and center?

Joe Terranova offered, "We have competition for equities once again." Judge cut him off, "Well once again? We haven't gone away from it. We've had continued competition-"

Joe said, "No, there was a period- there was several months where you kind of moved away from that."

"Only because sentiment had such a, a dramatic shift," Judge said.

(But Karen Finerman on the 5 p.m. Fast Money noted the 10-year yield and suggested the market is "just coming back to math.")

Josh Brown said this August's market pattern, including being in a 3rd presidential year, it's "very standard."

Josh asserted, "I really think energy is where the puck is going next," mentioning the IEO.

"China is not our economic equivalent," Joe asserted.

Joe said FCX is in the JOET. Judge asked if Joe is "happy about that." Joe said, "No."

For the 2nd day in a row, Judge was harping on NVDA's now-reduced forward P.E. Josh Brown said he sold "25%" of his stake; "I'm not bearish," rather, he's already taken his "initial investment" in this name out twice. But Brown insisted there's "no way" NVDA can match its May earnings surprise.

Steve Liesman and Judge discussed the real strength of the economy; Steve told Judge, "I think no landing is not OK with the Fed."

Stephanie Link said she owns BAC (and had to rattle off some of its stats ... including putting $10 billion into technology in the past decade ... yowza ... and the status of every other big bank). Stephanie "would not go close to any regional bank."

Joe said he doesn't own USB, but that's one he'd buy on a "deeper decline."

Joe also discussed the state of homebuying. "No one wants to walk into a house right now that has shared- uh, shag carpet, and purple walls and mirrors and buy some old home that they have to renovate and trade in their 4% mortgage for a 7% mortgage," Joe said.

Judge said that was a "rather specific" description. Joe said "there's a few of those homes in Nassau County." Judge chuckled that Joe isn't making friends out there now.

As Joe spoke about refiners, Judge explained the crack spread. Joe suggested rising oil may not help refiners.

Josh Brown's Final Trade was to avoid PYPL, though he noted lots of people on the show still recommend it.

Judge said on Closing Bell that he hasn't heard the term "SPAC" for a while.

Judge missed Joe’s rebalancing

Around CNBCfix HQ, we were practically jumping for joy upon learning that Judge was hosting Monday's (8/14) Halftime.

Within about 20 minutes, those jumps had turned to yawns.

Joe Terranova told Judge, "Good to have you back," saying stocks went down while Judge was gone and joking that Jim Lebenthal (also a panelist Monday, one whom Judge stopped hectoring in the spring) was trying to take over Judge's chair.

We wondered if Judge might bring a star guest — Al Michaels is just about due — but he couldn't even produce Krinsky (that was last week), as the show quickly faded to CNBC News Updates and ETF Edges and Santoli's Midday Words.

If there was any drama, it occurred when Jim was hailing the CLF bid for X. Jim even made a "green" argument (snicker) for steel production. Jim said "the ace up the sleeve here" is union support for the CLF offer.

Judge asked Jim why CLF stock was up after the offer. "I think the market sees what Lourenco is saying," Jim said. (The more specific answer, probably, is that Wall Street sees this sector as appealing for consolidation.)

Stephanie Link suggested the auto market is what's keeping CLF stock in check. Jim insisted, as he has for nearly 3 years, that "dealer inventories are still 50% of where they need to be." (Yeah, sure, try telling that to the guy trying to sell a "sporty" car to Terry in "American Graffiti.")

Judge noted that AAPL's forward P.E. has slid from "+30" to 28, while NVDA has gone from 62 to 46.

Jim said tech names are "overpriced" but he's not saying there's a "trap door" under those stocks. But he added that this time of year is "tricky." But Joe said we could be talking 6-9 months from now that Big Tech is still overvalued.

Sully provides better quotes than many CNBC panelists

Heads suddenly turned at CNBCfix HQ on Friday (8/11) when, just seconds into the Halftime Report, Steve Weiss stated, "The market was very tough to figure out all year."

That's a stark reversal from less than 2 months ago, when Weiss was saying on June 16 that "This is the easy- one of the easiest markets I've ever seen to analyze, and one of the toughest markets I've ever seen to invest in. This is purely a momentum-driven market. Period. End of story."

And back on Dec. 16, Weiss stated, "This is the easiest market to analyze that I've seen."

So it was the easiest to analyze ... until it wasn't.

On Friday, Weiss added, "I am so tired of hearing about the 50-day moving average. Hearing about it every 10, 15 minutes, it means nothing." He said he "can't think of anything more inane" than evaluating a stock buy based on whether it breaks the 50-day.

Bill Baruch reaffirmed he raised about 10% cash in late July, now he sees "an opportunity to go shopping."

Asked whether the bias in market indices is to the upside or downside, Bill offered that "the bias is for healthy consolidation."

"The economic environment is supportive of a rotation back into energy stocks," offered Shannon Saccocia.

Weiss said "services inflation" is "being very stubborn."

Bill bought CAT this week.

Kari Firestone, beaming in remotely (like it's still the pandemic), evidently knocked over a camera device, but it didn't affect the screen view.

Guest host Dom Chu tried to start up a conversation about energy in the wake of the CVX upgrade, but it didn't really go anywhere as Weiss again said he's long FCX.

Dom tried to ask Weiss about his positions in BABA and BIDU in the wake of Joe Biden's "ticking time bomb" comment about China. Weiss said Biden was at a fundraiser, and for people with a platform, "You wanna be tough on China." But it was not reported, Weiss said, that Biden also said "I don't wanna hurt China."

No one was analyzing the stock market on Friday better than Brian Sullivan, Judge's guest host for Closing Bell, who noted, "Unless the Federal Reserve somehow knows how to bring down rents or give people pay cuts, I don't see how they're gonna impact wages or shelter." (Fed levying pay cuts — we hadn't thought of that one.)

Sully said SLB is "kind of a bizarre name change, but whatever."

‘Oh my God, I’m gonna strangle you’

On Thursday's (8/10) Halftime Report, guest host Dom Chu introduced the panel of Josh Brown, Jenny Harrington and Jim Lebenthal (and uh oh, we know what happened the last time those 3 did a show together).

Things got a little feisty Thursday when Jenny mentioned she recently bought VFC, which she called "super interesting."

Jenny explained that after a pandemic run-up, shares are down "80% from the high."

Josh wondered, "Why is it down 80%?"

"Because it went too far up," Jenny said.

"That can't be," Josh said.

"It is," Jenny said.

"It's at 2010 levels," Josh said. "This stock is trading like they invented a new type of cancer. I've never- this is the worst chart I've ever seen all week."

"Oh my God, I'm gonna strangle you," Jenny said. "I don't know if Josh is baiting me or not-"

"Totally am," Josh said.

Jenny said the "last time" Brown saw the "worst chart," it was SWK, which Jenny called the "same story" but a stock that's "up 25% from there." Jenny's right (see below); that was a facial.

The Jenny-Josh exchange demonstrated the massive limitations of CNBC's automated Post 9 cameras, that failed to get the 2 parties in the same close-up shot, except when they weren't really looking at each other. (Yes, this is a different problem from panelists not being sure which camera to look at, so they end up looking at 3 of them during a single statement.)

‘I talk too long’

Guest host Dom Chu on Thursday's (8/10) Halftime Report announced that Josh Brown made a "new big buy" in energy. Josh insisted "not big" (he could've said "RIG, not BIG"), but he bought RIG, which has been touted by fellow panelist Jim Lebenthal this year.

Josh explained why. "It is now snapping this very, very long-term downtrend," though it's not yet in an uptrend, he allowed. Josh said it's "a very tough business" but he sees a "tailwind" in the 2nd half. He said he's got a "very, very small position here" and hoping to add.

Jim said he's been in RIG for 2 years, it's up "about 3-fold" and he's "not selling a share."

Jenny Harrington said the equity-income strategy she manages has a 5%-or-better dividend rule, "so I can't buy Transocean." And even a while back, when it had a "super-juicy dividend," she still wouldn't invest in it. Nevertheless, Jenny says this conversation tells her "you're a hundred percent on track" and "in the right spot" with other energy names.

Josh said the 3 of them "should launch a fund."

Jim said oil has rallied but nat gas has not, so "there's a lot of room" for nat gas to go higher.

Jenny made some reference to "I talk too long." Dom said he keeps a "tally" in his head about how much each person has contributed to the conversation.

Josh and a very famous producer were at the same table for lunch

Of course, on Thursday (8/10) there was a conversation about DIS on the Halftime Report, as well as every other CNBC program (not sure about "Undercover Boss" or "American Greed") for about 24 hours.

"When sentiment is as bad as it can be, you're usually near a bottom," offered Jenny Harrington, which made us wonder if regional banks are also "near a bottom."

Jenny said she bought DIS "a couple years ago at 120," and "the thesis is actually the same." (Ah. When it's our stocks, bad sentiment is wrong, but when it's not our stocks, bad sentiment is right.)

Jenny again said "I think you bet against Disney the way you bet against New York City. ... You just don't bet against it in the long run."

In a more articulate argument (sorry Jenny), Josh Brown said DIS is hiking streaming prices "defensively" because there's "no other way to justify the amount of money they've invested into this," and that raising prices is "very short term" and they "probably" can't or won't do that next year.

"The content is not good," Brown asserted. Brown said he was "sitting with a very famous Hollywood producer yesterday for lunch, not to brag," and the producer can't even tweet about a new show coming up this fall. "I think I'll have a chance to buy it lower," Brown said of DIS.

Karen ‘a tad skeptical’ that Tapestry can make Capri acquisition work

Steve Liesman on Thursday's (8/10) Halftime Report noted "the 3-month annualized rate" on inflation has "come down quite a bit," to 3.1% core and 1.9% headline.

Gurpreet Gill said the CPI continues the "disinflation trend" and July "may have marked the peak in the Fed hiking cycle."

Jenny Harrington said she runs "some fixed-income portfolios," and while she had been discouraging clients from reinvesting in bonds as they mature for about the last 10 years, "over the past year and change," she has "plowed" proceeds back into the "very very short end of the curve."

In a bit of prompter comedy while breaking for a commercial, Josh Brown hailed Steve Weiss for BABA's gain on Thursday, though Weiss wasn't on the show.

Jim Lebenthal said WYNN has been in "consolidation" for 6 months; he thinks it's going higher.

Josh said he doubts NVDA can do the "same thing" it did last quarter.

Jenny sold FTAI to fund her VFC buy. Jenny also unloaded MATV.

Jenny offered another REIT, NNN, as her Final Trade. Josh Brown was back touting TOST for Final Trade.

On the 5 p.m. Fast Money, Karen Finerman "didn't know what to make" of the day's market action. "I was confused by the whole day, to be honest," Karen said. Guy Adami predicted a "reacceleration of inflation."

Karen said she was "surprised for a couple of reasons" by the Tapestry-Capri deal, one of them being that Tapestry bid all-cash. Karen also wonders whether Tapestry "can make it work" when it "didn't work at Kors." Karen's "a tad skeptical."

Someone’s had it with Eras Tour

You knew things were going to be sleepy on Wednesday's (8/9) Halftime Report when Joe Terranova actually started off the show pinning the day's market action to the 1 p.m. 10-year auction (Zzzzzzzzzzzzz).

Joe said there's been a "little bit of technical selling pressure."

Amy Raskin said we'll "eventually" get a recession, but not in the next 6 months. However, "I think we are in for choppy waters" for those 6 months, Amy said.

Steve Weiss said the U.S. credit downgrade means "frankly nothing," but the market technically was overbought.

Weiss noted the market didn't go up after Nvidia made a bunch of product announcements.

Joe said the last time we had a CPI report, oil was $75 (he said it's $83.25 now) and nat gas was $2.60 (it's $3 now).

Joe said "rebalance" in the 15th minute.

Guest host Courtney Reagan said Weiss was the only panelist "with no energy ownership." Weiss said he owns FCX.

Amy Raskin said she trimmed DIS earlier this year to a "relatively small position," and it's still going to be a "messy" story. Joe suggested "the worst has passed" for DIS, but he doesn't see a "single catalyst" to get the stock going. (Later on the 5 p.m. Fast Money, Karen Finerman mentioned Bob Iger's interview with David Faber (Faber's biggest success of the year) and "I would start to look at it here.")

Joe said he bought DDOG, which got a Stifel downgrade, in early May at 86. "I sold half of my position at 96," Joe explained, saying he's still got half, with a breakeven "somewhere slightly above $76." Joe concedes that "the momentum is down." Amy Raskin suggested you need "blowout numbers" to get these kinds of stocks moving.

Weiss said the decline in foreign investment in China "emboldens" him to be long BABA and BIDU because Xi "has to" provide liquidity to the economy. But Rob Sechan suggested Weiss may be "pushing on a string" and that "the old playbook doesn't always work."

Amy Raskin said her shop made its 2nd trim of LVMUY this year out of concerns about the consumer.

Weiss' Final Trade was UNH and HUM, based on being beneficiaries from new obesity drugs.

On Fast Money, Guy Adami called guest Tom Rogers a "stud." Rogers said, "It'd be cooler if Melissa said it." We agree. At the end of the interview, Mel did indeed call Tom a "stud." If Mel called us a "stud," we'd be doing backflips around the Nasdaq. ... Julie Biel actually said, "If I see one more Taylor Swift concert picture, I am going to throw myself out this window, goodbye."

What’s the status of Ackman’s call on the 30-year?

One of Warren Buffett's favorite expressions has something to do with buying when there's blood in the streets.

Judging (even though Judge wasn't present) by the commentary on Tuesday's (8/8) Halftime Report, it seems a certain financial sector may be quite red ... and that people expect it to stay that way.

"The regional banks are, are gonna be in a world of hurt for quite some time," opined Stephanie Link.

Stephanie said 513 banks have failed since 2009.

Josh Brown asserted, "These are companies without a purpose at this point. They look like coal mines to me." He doesn't want to be "anywhere near them."

Bryn Talkington said she has been "really underweight banks."

Meanwhile, guest host Courtney Reagan said Telsey has downgraded HD and LOW.

Sarat Sethi said he cut back LOW to a "1% position," but he thinks HD and LOW are good stocks to own. Bryn said Telsey made a "good call" and noted the difference in stock performance between LEN and HD. Josh Brown talked up INVH, a stock he's mentioned before.

A viewer asked about Bryn's Summit (snicker) pick of COWZ. Bryn touted the mix of holdings it includes and said it's up "around 10% year to date."

Bryn gave mixed reviews of RBLX, saying she's still in the name, but it's been in a "trading range."

Josh said the flap over TOST's 99-cent fee, which prompted the company to drop it, will "probably blow the quarter."

Addressing previous calls on TOST and BROS, Brown said he doesn't "sugar coat" his bad stocks. "This is the real thing," Brown said.

Mike’s bearish again

On Monday's (8/7) Halftime Report, guest host Frank Holland at one point reported that Mike Wilson "is watchin' the markets" and says in a new note, "This rise in rates should start to call into question equity valuations."

Delving into the comedy scene, Jim Lebenthal brought up Sam Kinison and said Kinison was the comedian who said "Say it!! Just say it!!"

Frank Holland said Kinison "used to yell a lot, on Howard Stern." Jim's point was that "This market can rally without Apple."

Jim predicted a "traditional late-summer swoon."

After a lengthy opening spiel, Joe Terranova said of megacaps, "Equal-weighted's the right way" (Zzzzzzzzzzzz).

Joe said the recent pullback seems "technical in its nature."

Joe was "somewhat surprised" that "the strategy" of the JOET moved deeper into energy, now above 11% rather than 10% before the ... drum roll ... REBALANCE.

Frank wondered if "the dramatic thing" would be the Fed hiking at its next meeting. Jim said we'd need "more than that."

Jim said energy stocks should do well with oil climbing, though he acknowledged low natural gas prices. But Jim asserted that the natural gas trade is "more likely" to find upside than downside.

Joe floated the concept, based on "improvement in momentum," that UAL could retest its December 2018 high of 97.

Jim said UAL is "literally" trading at 4½ times earnings.

Someone who bought PARA at ... ahem ... $33 asked Jim Lebenthal to grade their trade. Jim said he won't grade that trade but will grade his own trade on this stock, a D-.

After Contessa Brewer's CNBC News Update, Frank Holland asked Contessa if she has seen "Barbie." Contessa said no, "the boys in my family were like, 'No thanks.'" Frank said Seema Mody wants to go. Contessa said, "Frank is trying to set up a play date for me. What does that say about the state of my social life."

Hmmmmm ... OK ... This page cannot imagine a single thing being wrong with Brewer's social life. (Or Mody's, for that matter.) (#thingswe'dbedyingtodo,but...) Just paying a polite compliment.

Speaking of people whom others would love to go to the movies with (just paying a polite compliment), on the 5 p.m. Fast Money, Karen Finerman said seeing "other sectors sort of join the party" is "much better action" for the stock market.

Weiss enjoys trumpeting BABA long to ‘aggravate’ the trolls

Even Steve Weiss couldn't breathe much life into Friday's (8/4) Halftime Report, although, maybe that's because Weiss hardly chose to tangle with Jim Lebenthal, a likely result of Weiss' ghastly bearish call through the first half of the year from which he's spent weeks trying to play instant catch-up.

Weiss did have some good punch lines aimed in Jim's direction throughout the show.

Explaining why he's long BABA and BIDU, Weiss said he's reminded "indirectly by many, many trolls" of his declaration that he'll never buy Chinese stocks. "But you know what? 'Never' has a price when you're an investor. And it pays not to be married to all your biases," Weiss said.

Weiss said he "actually made quite a bit of money" shorting BABA from 250 to "roughly 150."

At the end of the show, Weiss made BABA his Final Trade, in part "just to aggravate the trolls a little more."

More significantly than that, Weiss said "the only good thing about Russia-Ukraine, right, is that it's a warning sign to China."

That's an interesting point. And this page does think Weiss' BABA argument is one of the show's most interesting in months.

If geopolitical tensions really did peak with Russia-Ukraine, then China stocks (as well as China-U.S. relations) would seem likely candidates for a lot of catch-up.

On the other hand, as long as Donald Trump remains one of the two-party nominees for president, which may well be the case until 2036 or 2040, it seems hard to believe that Chinese stocks will be embraced with much enthusiasm by American investors.

Guest host Melissa Lee said Weiss is in AMZN and asked what he's doing with it on Friday. "I'm not adding at this point," Weiss said.

Jim Lebenthal said he wouldn't be chasing AMZN.

Weiss said the jobs report was a "Goldilocks" report, which explains the market move.

During an extended conversation about BKNG and EXPE, Weiss said he doesn't know if business travel comes back in September; "work from home has really affected business travel."

Weiss said he thinks J can go "a lot higher."

What would BRK-A’s return of the last 10 years be without any investment in AAPL (a/k/a ‘Ackman’s jumping on a crowded trade’)

Especially given Steve Weiss' political commentary of a day earlier (see below), Thursday's (8/3) Halftime Report was quite ... underwhelming.

Judge again wasn't present, so it was up to Dom Chu to tell us what was "front and center." (About the only thing that was "front and center" on Thursday was people thinking about AAPL earnings.)

Josh Brown said Wednesday's broad-market setback was just a "countertrend" day. "Apple's gonna move this market," Brown said.

Josh said Apple Services would be in the S&P 500 by itself, "maybe the S&P 100." He floated an interesting question from Warren Buffett: If someone offered an Apple user $10,000 with one stipulation — that they can't buy an Apple product ever again — "almost nobody would take that deal."

Bill Baruch said if AAPL misses on earnings, 180 is a "tremendous support level" for people who want to get in.

Brenda Vingiello said AAPL should trade at a premium to the market but not "as much a premium as it's getting today."

Jim Lebenthal again bluntly stated it'll be "really hard" to get "30% per annum returns going forward" in AAPL.

Meanwhile, Jim conceded that QCOM, which was his Final Trade a couple days ago, "gave lousy guidance." He's still optimistic and doesn't think it's INTC of "5 years ago."

Dom's Call of the Day was Ackman's "big short bet" on the 30-year. Bill Baruch offered, "The bond market has really collapsed," and so "Ackman's jumping on a crowded trade," and if "the data doesn't come in hot," then "the bond market's gonna rally in his face."

Jim Lebenthal said there "a lot of reasons" why Ackman's trade should work. What Jim can't do is say "Now is the time."

Jim said he sold DOV because he's "just respectful of how far this market has come."

Josh Brown said he's going to keep owning SHAK.

"There is a lot of bad news baked in to Disney," said Brenda Vingiello, who insisted like virtually everyone does that there's "upside from here."

Bill Baruch suggested that if anything outperforms tech in the 2nd half, "it could and should be health care," though he said you can own both sectors.

Jim said RIG is one to hold "for double digits."

Josh Brown is "not looking forward" to the BROS report and admitted "I wish I wasn't in the stock."

A ‘socialist’ vs. an ‘incompetent’ — Weiss unloads on presidential politics

Normally, Judge (and other CNBC hosts) tries to put a muzzle on political commentary, at least the kind in which a sitting president is called a "socialist.".

On Wednesday's (8/2) Judge-less Halftime, guest host Dom Chu was attempting no such thing.

Given a chance to opine on Wednesday's rocky stock market and the Fitch downgrade, Steve Weiss started off with "the market was clearly overbought" and "you never know what the catalyst is gonna be," but "this was it."

Then things got really good when Weiss said Fitch "in some respects is getting in front of the presidential election in 2024."

"Either you keep a socialist in the White House who's bad for business, or you put somebody in there who's incompetent and unfit to serve ... I don't like either one of 'em," Weiss stated.

"If Trump does go to jail, which seems increasingly as a- real likelihood of that, hopefully ... then you've got Ron DeSantis, who's the most anti-business Republican I think I've ever seen," Weiss continued.

"All you've got are bad choices. You've got the fringe socialists on the left and you've got the fringe, you know, conservatives on the right. When Marjorie Taylor Greene is a spokesperson for your party, then you gotta say, Where else can I put my money. So, I think that's what Fitch is getting in front of," Weiss concluded.

Dom Chu pushed back that it doesn't seem like there's "fear that America's going down a fiery pit of despair."

"It's not going to," Weiss said, because "the U.S. is always gonna be the default bond market."

Joe Terranova kind of seconded Weiss' comments. "If None of the Above was on the presidential election ballot, None of the Above would win."

How many times did Joe say ‘the strategy’

If it hadn't been for Weiss, Wednesday's (8/2) Halftime Report would've been a relentless JOET rebalance-upgrade day.

In the 11th minute, guest host Dom Chu brought up "rebalanced" on the part of the JOET. Joe Terranova said he'd discuss "what the personality (snicker) of the strategy is today."

Joe explained that "the strategy continues to evolve" and eventually got to, "There's no way that this is a peak for the market."

Joe said "the strategy is out of Netflix." Citing some buy prices and sell prices, Joe insisted that "the strategy's done a good job" of trading this name.

Joe said TSLA and GOOGL were added to the JOET because of revenue growth.

Dom asked Bryn Talkington what she wants to do with her TSLA stake. That prompted Bryn, yet again, to recap how she was buying it last year around the "Twitter nonsense" at 120. Bryn said she keeps a long-term core position, and then she buys the stock and sells calls.

Steve Weiss said Tesla margins are coming down, but it's "by design." Weiss said he owns the JOET because of Joe's "disciplined" approach.

Joe said the JOET unloaded ENPH, which Joe called "the worst performing technology name in the entire sector for the S&P year to date."

Bryn touted NVDA over AMD but said Jensen, Lisa Su and Tim Cook are rock-star CEOs. The JOET added AMD.

‘Thank you, Fitch’

Bryn Talkington opened Wednesday's (8/2) Halftime Report explaining that Wednesday's market is a "breather" and "this is a pullback."

Bryn said she "definitely" wants to say, "Thank you, Fitch," adding, "This should be a wake-up call for politicians on both sides to stop the spending."

Guest host Dom Chu referenced 2011 and said this is "not even close" to the market reaction some may have thought.

Jason Snipe agreed with Bryn that interest payments are an issue.

Dom asked if there's a "top" in the market. Joe Terranova said the "conversation" about "competition for equities" is renewed. He also suggested possible "stress" on regional bank balance sheets.

Late in the show, Steve Weiss observed, "The obesity drug market is getting very crowded, very quickly."

Bryn called DVN a "great name" and said she'll keep owning it. Jason Snipe said he likes PG.

‘Anyone that wants to work can work’

On Tuesday's (8/1) Judge-less Halftime Report, Jim Lebenthal harped on AAPL's 33 multiple, and he said its long-term earnings growth expectation is 9.9%, so don't expect to collect "30% per annum" returns of the last 5 years.

Guest host Frank Holland opened the show trying to convince everyone that August is basically, in general, the worst month of the year. Jim suggested maybe reallocating some cash from the "high-flying tech winners" into some of his favorite stocks.

Liz Young, who looks great but is basically the Investment Committee's version of Mike Wilson, said the market looks "stronger than I expected" and that "maybe an armageddon-type of recession is not in the cards," but the question now is whether tech has to pull back to the rest of the market.

Liz cited high valuations "for any stock or any market at large" and said to expect "more muted" returns over the next 5 years.

Josh Brown said "100% of the components of the XLE" are above their 50-day. He said banks and other cyclicals need to "cool off" a bit but could be "the next great buying opportunity of the year."

Josh said of the economy, "Anyone that wants to work can work."

Frank and Josh quibble over the significance of Uber Freight being asset-light

In what's become a daily feature of the Halftime Report, UBER got another robust endorsement Tuesday (8/1) as Josh Brown cited several news developments he liked. (This writer is long UBER.)

Josh cited Dara's prediction to Andrew Ross Sorkin of profitability every quarter, which Brown "wasn't expecting." Dara also talked about advertising becoming a $1 billion business.

There was a bit of dead air when Frank noted UBER's forward P.E. of 150 compared with LYFT (whose forward P.E., we really don't know). Brown agreed it's a high P.E. but said the company hasn't had a "full year" of profitability yet.

Jim Lebenthal said banks seem an "obvious play" for the next few years, though he's "not exposed to the regional bank sector." Liz Young said it's bullish for financials as the yield curve gets back to a "normal shape," but she's not ready to say "all in," which is exactly what she has not been saying for the last 2 years running ...

Jim again made the long-term case for CVS, predicting it'll "steadily march higher" in the next 2 years. Josh Brown cited "heavy, heavy technology investments which are paying off" for SHAK.

In the category of trade-grading, Stephanie Link said she's not sure a questioner's GE buy at 181 is "comparable." Jim said he had a "robust discussion" with his team about RTX and said he's owned it for 3 years and it used to be a great stock but has "stunk up the joint" this year, but he's "sticking with it."

Frank told Seema Mody, who delivered the CNBC News Update, "great appearance on the 'Today' show."

On the 5 p.m. Fast Money, Guy Adami said he couldn't figure out why AMD shares were rallying afterhours, other than, "AI is everything right now." Karen Finerman said, "I have some AMD ... I'm not gonna trade around it. I have some Nvidia as well."

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