CNBCfix - Fast Money Review

[CNBCfix Fast Money Review Archive — September 2013]
[Monday, September 30, 2013]

We want a shutdown!
We want a shutdown!

Hearing for days about the gloom of another gridlocked-government stalemate, we were surprised to find Monday's Fast Money crew about as giddy as the Brady kids doing the Silver Platters' "It's a Sunshine Day."

There "could be some further room to the downside," said Steve Grasso, but that would be a "buying opportunity."

Pete Najarian claimed that if there's a shutdown and the VIX spikes, that would be a "great opportunity" for names such as JPM and WFC.

Even Karen Finerman, who had a quiet show, admitted, "I'm right there with Pete," suggesting markets are "getting inured to these sort (sic) of crises with Congress."

That's an understatement; the truth is that everybody has seen this movie as often as "Road House" (above), and nobody wants to sell and end up with their account getting the Morgan treatment (above).

Tim Seymour affirmed that "nothing happened to global growth" on Monday.

Guest Ed Mills was actually the most enthusiastic of the bunch, claiming, "The market should almost be rooting for this shutdown," because it makes a debt-ceiling deal "extremely likely."

"We can solve this altogether," Mills said.

Karen Finerman got in a subtle dig at gold being down, saying she was "surprised" to see that on a day like Monday.

Steve Grasso said he thinks health care will do better under ObamaCare than some now fear, and he likes medical device names such as BSX.

Pete Najarian predicted M&A by the end of the year in shale drillers.

Tim Seymour said this is a "dangerous place to be buying" BIDU, but he owns TSL and would stay in the solar trade.

Steve Grasso pointed out that TSLA "actually performed very well" Monday.

Tim Seymour said of AMCX, "These guys look ripe for a takeout ... I bet it goes higher."

Pete Najarian argued an AAPL bull case based on valuation, cash and the recent release. Tim Seymour scoffed that the 5C was "woefully undersold."

Steve Grasso sees a "$500 lid" on AAPL.

John Stoltzfus pointed to market strength during the Clinton-era shutdowns and said that history may not repeat, but it rhymes (Drink). He advises overweighting consumer discretionary and industrials and likes HON, BA, ETN, TIF and F.

Scott Nations reported a big buyer of 6,000 January 44 puts in FB.

Steve Grasso said he likes LMT, GD and NOC, and "I don't think you can go wrong in any one of these names." Pete Najarian likes BA in defense.

Tim Seymour's Final Trade was EEM at 39.50. Steve Grasso said BAC around the important 13.80 mark. Karen Finerman said C under 48. Pete Najarian said BMY is going higher.

Richards: Shutdown could be
continuing a week from now

Monday's Halftime Report featured Anthony Scaramucci delivering the best-case scenario, and Paul Richards with basically the worst.

Scaramucci predicted a "resolution fairly quickly" in Washington, which he said "bodes very well for the stock market by year-end."

Richards, on the other hand, suggested we better not underestimate the Ted Cruz-Harry Reid combination; "I think the market's playing catch-up here ... I think a shutdown is likely to happen. I don't think it's in the market."

Richards, who we think was actually suggesting in June that the Fed could start tapering in July, now says October would be "way too soon," and it'll be December at a "minimum."

For now, "The trade is to be long the Swiss franc," Richards said.

Jon Najarian pointed out that volatility took off in the open, when many bought it during "amateur hour."

First time we’ve heard not tapering as a risk to markets

The most bizarre theme in recent Halftime Report episodes was extended Monday when Joe Terranova reaffirmed his "war on momentum."

Dr. New World, who's as hungry for a selloff as Charlie is for a table at Rao's, predicted that since the non-tapering decision, this is just "the beginning" of the correction and that stocks will "continue to go lower ... I still see the potential for a significant shakeout in the markets."

Evidently still stinging from that previous "You will see taper on September 18th" prognostication, Terranova perpetuated his bungle-in-progress, shorting NFLX and PCLN on the grounds that "that's where the euphoria really is."

A new wrinkle is that Joe sees a possible Fed scenario where "they need to taper but they can't," and the risk is that "they can't taper."

Joe suggested he was doing a form of "chasing the beta here ... I just think we need more of a shakeout."

Anthony Scaramucci, clearly forgetting what Mr. New Land and others said in advance of 9/18, incredibly said, "Kudos to the show. We've been more or less right on what Fed action has been," and called Ben S. Bernanke a "great quarterback."

As for momentum stocks, Jon Najarian said of TSLA, "I still wouldn't bail on it," said "love this one" regarding SOHU, and even made long FB his Final Trade.

Joe: CMG is ‘classic example
of the euphoria’

Few television events are less appealing than Stephanie Link in a Halftime Report bull-bear debate, but that's what viewers got Monday, as Link endorsed CMG, an "industry leader" with "above-average growth" that Link thinks will continue.

Dr. New Land, sensing an opportunity to tie a couple segments together, declared, "This is a classic example of the euphoria that's present right now in the momentum stocks," and that he thinks the name needs more international oomph.

Jon Najarian irked Judge, explaining, "I almost could've taken either side." Judge, who managed to say this without a grin, said "that's frankly unacceptable." So Doc said, "At 430 bucks a share, it's not a buy."

Anthony Scaramucci backed Link; "it's goin' higher."

The Fast Fire should’ve been over the claim that Meg became a better CEO by losing to Jerry Brown

Joe Terranova, whose spotty performance on Monday's Halftime included even complaining that INTC is on some bogus brand-name-power list while SBUX isn't, claimed that Carl and Tim Cook would be dining "out on the West Coast," then said that Apple's October earnings would be "the ultimate catalyst" for the name.

Evidently, China Mobile and a bigger screen and a wristwatch and a TV and Jeff Gundlach's tutti-frutti iPhone color don't matter.

Jon Najarian said the activity in BBRY suggests "Nobody cares here," and he's "not really interested."

Anthony Scaramucci said he'd be a buyer of MU around 15, but "be careful."

Going to the well too often, Scaramucci took a Fast Fire on his bullish HPQ call of months ago, then on Monday shrugged off the call as a "very long-term position" and said he's hoping for another Fast Fire, because another one brings "usually good luck."

Mr. New Land said to "be long PayPal" (i.e., EBAY).

Dominic Chu explained that Google is a "Web, search and advertising giant."

Doc: Quickest bang for Obamacare buck is in hospitals

Josh Raskin discussed winners under ObamaCare's health exchanges on Monday's Halftime, which apparently are WLP, MOH and CNC, though the first 2 names he mentioned were UNH and AET.

Joe Terranova suggested "Baxters" (sic) after its pullback, and the device space, are intriguing. Stephanie Link said she likes WLP and CVS.

Jon Najarian pointed to the hospital names CYH and HCA; "that's an immediate benefit."

Anthony Scaramucci suggested PFE. Joe Terranova revealed, "I'm short biotech."

This time Judge doesn’t point out that Mike Ullman disagrees with his reporting

David Herro told Monday's Halftime Report that strong European companies are getting tainted by their association with Europe, explaining he likes CS and BMW and several others.

Herro said the euro is not a concern as long as it is not "noticeably overvalued."

"We're at the bottom of the European auto cycle," Herro said.

Joe Terranova said he sees no JCP catalysts in the near term. Jon Najarian said a big JCP trade went off Monday morning. Anthony Scaramucci said to watch the JCP bonds, with this new fund-raising, they could deliver "equity-like returns."

Stephanie Link likes JCI (her Final Trade), NOV and CBI. But she'd sell XOM.

Joe Terranova said if you're in the refiners, "carry a close stop." His Final Trade was short GMCR.

Jon Najarian said of BAC, "I would buy it on any dips to 13.50." His Final Trade was FB long. Anthony Scaramucci likes ANF and made BID his Final Trade.

[Friday, September 27, 2013]

1-800-HARDWOOD

For actually providing a recap of Friday's Fast Money, this page oughta be suspended.

(If only.)

Tim Seymour twice addressed Chinese Internet names and said the YHOO-Alibaba link has long been priced into the stock, and so you "have to take profits" in that sector.

Steve Grasso said that valuation arguments against TSLA and AMZN could've been made for ages and the problem is that every sell has been a bad one; "I think that you have to be long this market," and stay in TSLA.

Grasso said he's still long QCOM, and he'd hold FB into earnings but probably not beyond that.

Guy Adami said, "I still like LinkedIn ... Priceline still makes sense here," not exactly something Mr. New Land wants to hear.

Adami said he's been wrong on BBRY a bunch of times, but every bounce has been a sell opportunity. He cautioned about IBM; "I think this stock could easily trade down in the 170s."

Tim Seymour said P is worth owning, but "I think you can wait for a pullback."

Seymour said that to get a 5% correction in 2013, it would take a "policy error or policy failure," but "I don't see it."

Seymour called NKE a name "you buy on weakness."

Brian Kelly said that "JCPenney stinks."

Guy Adami said that if you're not selling LL, he's not sure what you're waiting for; "get out and wait for the dust to settle."

Guy reaffirmed his 1,670 target.

Melissa's "righteous" haircut was obviously the talk of the green room.

Flavien Desoblin spoke for about 30 seconds on California brandy.

Simon stands tall amid others’ YHOO bull-bear debate

Pete Najarian on Friday's Halftime Report bungled the obvious bull case for YHOO, instead stumbling over a "sum of the parts" analysis that finds it somehow worth $23 without Asian assets.

Josh Brown was equally bad, claiming the fundamentals Pete cited are "already in the stock" and the issue is, "Do you buy it here ... I gotta tell you something ... $34 has been massive resistance, multiple times."

Pete predicted the stock gets to 36-38, "easily."

Simon Baker made by far the most relevant observation, questioning "why on earth" anyone would sell this stock before the Alibaba IPO.

Brown scoffed that eventually we'll see how much Tumblr is worth, or that thing headed by a "14-year-old" kid in London.

Pete Najarian said "I'm not so sure" if Alan Mulally wants to be MSFT CEO.

Pete said MU "has been on fire" but is "still cheap," and "I think they go higher."

Stephanie Link said of CSCO, "I like it at 23."

Josh Brown said of BBRY, "If there is no deal, this is probably a $5 name." Simon Baker said to "stay away" from the name.

Baker conceded his YELP Fast Fire from July but tried to mount a reversal by saying he's probably traded the stock 3 times since. Right now, "I'd short it here."

Chuck Grom in hiding

Judge Wapner unleashed a professional, courteous broadside at Mike Ullman on Friday's Halftime Report, explaining that in the wake of Judge's reporting that Ullman did indeed say JCP didn't need to raise capital, they spoke last night and "he told me he never made those statements," even though "I spoke to 2 sources who were in the room."

Rather telling, Judge said CNBC had reached out to Chuck Grom, but "he hasn't returned our calls or been made available."

Simon Baker helped Judge's case, reading the Sterne Agee official report that says, "Management stated they do not need to raise capital now."

In a helpful trade for 9/27, Pete Najarian reported that on 8/7, someone was doing a January 10/5 put spread in JCP and made a bunch of money.

Josh Brown said he'd have to "sit back and wait," calling it a "don't-touch situation," but a "fascinating" one.

Mike Santoli begged off a JCP call; "I think it's kind of binary right now."

Tom Stemberg, however, said it's "perfectly plausible" that Ullman could've made the statements Judge reported and then decide to raise capital.

Judge insisted that the "CEO seems to be having some issues," and Stemberg agreed, questioning how previously Ullman was deemed the problem then Ron Johnson was brought in, and then Ullman was deemed the answer to the 2nd problem; "I just don't get it to begin with."

Nevertheless, Stemberg defended what happened this week. "I don't think those statements are necessarily inconsistent," he said, explaining he doesn't own the stock and if taking a position, he would short it.

‘This is gonna suck’

Josh Brown on Friday's Halftime Report declared there's light in this market, in the form of consumer stocks.

They've been "absolutely on fire," Brown claimed, pointing to the XLY and asserting that the market, having gone through this debt/shutdown thing before, is "not as afraid this time."

Basically the market thinks, according to Brown, "This is gonna suck, but we're gonna get through it."

But guest Vadim Zlotnikov, who did well in a chipper performance, wasn't buying the consumer thing, asserting that consumer stocks will be between a rock and a hard place over the next 6 months.

Brown tried to argue that there are differences among consumer stocks with European-growth exposure and other names. Zlotnikov agreed but said in that case why not just play the European names.

Zlotnikov predicted the market would be more sensitive to risk, which will put a damper on multiple expansion.

However, one area he likes is metals and mining, hastily qualifying, "This is a trade, not an investment ... I do expect a bounce."

Pete Najarian said it's a "good sign" that banks are trading positive. But Simon Baker predicted confidence will fall in October, and "We're actually underweight the financials going into Q4."

Steve Liesman explained all the dynamics involved in the Fed right now and said if he's being asked to tell the panel, "Here's how you game this out," he just can't do it.

Santoli: Buy X
(But this isn’t an in-depth thesis)

Josh Brown on Friday's Halftime Report rained on the MCD's parade, noting a "series of lower highs going back to April" and the multiple at a high level and indicating buyers should wait for a fall, or perhaps a breakout.

But Pete Najarian and Stephanie Link disagreed and were bullish, with Link saying "per se."

Dominic Chu reported that Brad Hintz issued a negative report on GS and MS, citing a "full-scale rout in trading." Stephanie Link said she still likes MS, while Simon Baker said that "Goldman Sachs is our best idea."

Link said NKE's gross margin was impressive, and you "wanna stay long" up to Oct. 9, when management might even upgrade the outlook. Simon Baker said he prefers NKE to FINL.

Simon Baker said ACI got downgraded to a sell. Josh Brown called UAL a "very wacky stock ... it's not my cup of tea." But Pete Najarian said there's "plenty of upside still" in airlines. (Nobody offered to pay Simon's 1st-class California airfare, but if Simon takes advantage of Joe's goofy "war on momentum" and gets long PCLN and NFLX, he can get Dr. New Land to finance those trips in a roundabout way.)

Pete said 105 calls in OXY were hot.

Michael Santoli insisted that in evaluating heavily shorted names X, LL and HAS, it was only "kind of a tactical evaluation, not an in-depth thesis," but the one he said to buy is X, which he said tends to do well in the 4th quarter for the last 10 years.

But Santoli said to sell LL, a "controversial stock for a long time," and claimed he came up with that before Friday's performance.

Josh Brown said "the trade is to sell" SCTY. Pete Najarian said UNG isn't his type of thing; he'd go with KOG or WLL.

John Harwood said the Tea Party holdouts really "could care less" about the stock market's reaction, when Harwood really meant "couldn't care less."

Pete Najarian's Final Trade was MGM. Simon Baker said ALU, Stephanie Link said NOV and Josh Brown said DD.

[Thursday, September 26, 2013]

Jeff Lick handed unfortunate time slot to make case for DECK, has to talk about JCP

Kayla Tausche (once rumored by N.Y. Post to be in running for Larry Kudlow's time slot) delivered breaking JCP news on Thursday's Fast Money, explaining in fact there's going to be an equity offering handled by Goldman Sachs.

Karen Finerman immediately pounced on Mike Ullman's purported comments of a day earlier that JCP doesn't "need" to raise money.

"It sounds really fishy to me ... that is really odd that he would say that," Finerman said.

Tim Seymour then launched a semantical battle, arguing maybe it's not a need to raise liquidity but just taking advantage of an already-existing financing opportunity.

Finerman, though, again wondered why Ullman apparently didn't allow for that a day earlier — if he said what he purportedly said.

And, Finerman added, somebody at Goldman also just downgraded the stock or debt, so "I'd be pissed at Goldman if I were they."

Seymour shrugged that "they're gonna take a significant hickey" regardless, but in general, hedge funds like to buy the "puke" of others.

Finerman wondered aloud about Ackman's exit and apparent troubles with the board; "is this what he was worried about." Guy Adami twice admitted he was wrong in sensing capitulation with Ackman's exit (though he said it worked for a day) and said that playing the stock here is "throwin' darts," and he doesn't know if it's going up or down $2.

Jeff Lick, who thought he was going to discuss DECK during his appearance, couldn't avoid being drawn into the JCP dialogue and used the term "death spiral," but stressed that a lot of landlords still need a functional JCPenney.

Lick did manage to say DECK gets a tailwind from sheepskin prices, and he apparently also likes LF but didn't get a chance to discuss.

They’re talkin’ bulletproof,
but it’s just pretend

Somehow strapped for themes these days, both Thursday's Halftime Report and Fast Money grasped for a hook to start the programs, with Fast Money deciding on hitting up the traders for a "bulletproof" stock.

Guy Adami offered BWA; "I still think it has room to the upside."

Tim Seymour cited SBUX, "the great U.S. multinational growth story."

Mike Khouw, smartly buying the other end of Dr. New World's newfound short botch, offered PCLN, asserting "the trend is to online booking," and "the multiples are justified by growth."

Karen Finerman submitted MA; the valuation's OK and "it deserves a high multiple."

Steve Grasso said GOOG has replaced AMZN as "my everything stock," then finally started talking sense; "Let's all realize, nothing's bulletproof."

Guy Adami had a good line about Andy Gibb music.

Guy: Watch LLY at 50

Karen Finerman on Thursday's Fast Money chirped about the impressive showing of NKE, saying she owns FL and FINL and given this news, FL should be up Friday.

In fact, long FL was her Final Trade, as long as it's up less than $1.

Guy Adami advised not chasing NKE and not applying it broadly to retail; "I think this is Nike-specific," he said." Tim Seymour agreed on not chasing it.

Adami said JPM is cheap and predicted a quarter that will "shock the world." (Drink. Boy if we had $1 for every JPMorgan quarter that was supposedly going to be a reaction to all the government things swirling around it ...)

Tim Seymour was bearish on the stock, saying authorities are trying to push JPM to admit to wrongdoing, which could open the door to more litigation.

Mike Khouw said options players sided with Adami, bidding up October 55 calls.

Adami said if you're in LLY, be careful; you can stay long vs. 50.

Steve Grasso said "I would stay away" from CZR, and Karen Finerman said APD "still seems really expensive."

Tim Seymour said "you can actually chase" YOKU, just don't do it Friday. Mike Khouw said LMT's gains were a "great opportunity" to sell.

Tim Seymour is taking Washington politics way too seriously

LYV chief Michael Rapino guested with Thursday's Fast Money gang and conceded the margin realities of concerts; "the content is gonna be paid," but spoke enthusiastically about a new ticketing platform that Karen Finerman especially likes.

Rapino downplayed the significance of his summer stock sale, saying he was just trying to "take a little money off the table for some real estate," and that it was just 7% of his holdings, and that maybe 8 years from now he'll do the same thing.

Karen Finerman said she's long and hopes "maybe this show" will be a catalyst for the stock, or at least the new ticketing platform will be.

Meanwhile, David Hornik also visited the set, to speak with Kate Kelly, and said Twitter's been the conversation in Silicon Valley since the Facebook IPO, which he said was trouble because "the private markets had gotten so overheated for Facebook shares."

Hornik said the eBay-Braintree deal represents "massive opportunity" in mobile.

Steve Grasso admitted that he got out of BBRY when it broke 8.19.

Grasso gushed about TSLA; "people love the product," but it's "definitely a momentum play ... when it's over, it will be obvious."

Guy Adami said the key for the HTZ report is, "What does that mean for the airlines."

Tim Seymour stressed that IMMR's market-cap has shot up, and it "won't take a lot to knock this thing up or down."

Seymour apparently wants endless money-printing, denouncing "this whole GOP, uh, stall on raising the debt limit" as a "joke" that the Tea Party is in charge, and "very scary."

Mike Khouw's Final Trade was BWA options. Tim Seymour said long EWZ, Steve Grasso said POT and Guy Adami said JPM.

Weiss buys more FB

Stephen Weiss on Thursday's Halftime Report wasn't impressed by Judge and Doc's trip to the Manhattan Apple Store, nor was he impressed by the upcoming Icahn-Cook meeting. "I don't expect anything," Weiss shrugged.

Mike Murphy insisted that Icahn "can definitely make a difference," perhaps propelling the stock past 510.

Judge claimed that if half the people he and Doc saw in the Apple Store were gone, there'd still be more shoppers per square foot than at any other place. Weiss scoffed that's "because of all the tourists coming in."

Jon Najarian said the Jan 35 calls he saw in YHOO were the biggest trade he's seen in the stock in years.

Najarian said he still likes MSFT and "I'd be a holder here." He said BBRY (can't we stop talking about that one) was hurt by a T-Mobile rumor that was debunked, but "this is dead money I think."

Stephen Weiss admitted, "I actually added to a little (sic)" in FB; "this is the definition of momentum stock."

Maybe Edward Lampert
could turn around JCP?

Once again grasping for interesting subject matter, Judge Wapner on Thursday's Halftime Report could do no better than a go-round on retail that even his own panel was too bored to take part in.

Steve Weiss shrugged and said he's still long M (Drink). Jon Najarian observed that the mall retailers were "perhaps hit a little too hard."

Stephanie Link assured viewers, "You have to be selective in retail" (Drink), and she's not enthusiastic right now, but maybe would be interested in GPS, except even that one could be "dicey" here.

Judge then brought in Debbie Weinswig to explain her $7 target on JCP. "I don't think that they need to" raise capital, Weinswig said, stressing the word "need" while carefully equivocating every comment. "In the vendor community we're starting to hear some unrest," Weinswig added, saying home goods account for only 10% of sales now, gingerly addressing Judge's acknowledgment of her $1-a-share liquidation value by explaining that unlike SHLD, the company doesn't have a lot left that isn't pledged, and saying "you know" maybe a dozen times.

Stephanie Link said of BBBY, "Buy that stock."

Stephen Weiss said of CVS, "I like the stock."

Stephen Weiss growing weary of hearing emerging-markets investors tout Russia

Money in Motion (we still use that term; why not) fox Rebecca Patterson visited with Thursday's jaded Halftime Report crew and said she likes the market here because there's an uptick in the global economy, and risks such as Fed chief and tapering and shutdown are becoming better known.

Jon Najarian said he thinks no tapering until a "minimum of December."

Patterson agreed that there is nothing but "slow improvement in the labor market."

Patterson said her shop is underweight emerging markets, though she conceded there might be bursts of strength.

That was a bit at odds with another guest, Jeremy Schwartz, who stressed comparative valuation and said while U.S. stocks have done great for 3 years, emerging markets have been flat to negative.

He said he likes DEM, and thinks Russia is the cheapest market. Stephen Weiss shrugged that everyone in emerging markets says they like Russia, it "seems a little crowded."

That prompted Judge to say "Hell," everyone talks about Japan, and that's done well.

Anthony Grisanti said bonds have rallied on no tapering, Yellen's likely appointment and the possibility of a shutdown. Jim Iuorio said he thinks the 10-year can get to 2.47%, but that's about it.

Should’ve waited till afternoon

Mike Murphy, in what could've been an exciting trade, revealed on Thursday's Halftime Report that while HTZ was "getting smoked today," he was jumping in: "We stepped in and bought this morning," Murphy said, guessing that what really irked the Street was "the way this news came out."

Murphy called CZR "very interesting around 19."

Stephen Weiss said to "stay away" from LLY.

Stephanie Link wearily argued a bull case for APD on the basis of fundamentals. Mike Murphy countered that buying the stock at this level is (snicker) making a bet on Ackman.

Link insisted on extra time to explain the "efficiencies" APD can get via return on equity/balance sheet/inventory/etc./whatever relative to its peers.

Jon Najarian shrugged and said if he were long, "I would be lightening up and/or exiting." Stephen Weiss was more welcoming; "I'd buy it on any dip."

Weiss said in energy to "play the service stocks." Murphy said, "I think the refiners are very interesting."

Which should make him interested in DAL. But despite being Fast Fired for a bungled September bear call in the name (at least unlike Simon, he's not buying first-class California airfare, but Simon could slide that off to Joe if he simply gets long NFLX and PCLN here), Murphy reaffirmed Thursday, "I still don't like Delta."

Stephen Weiss tried to argue that the airlines are different now, but Murphy was actually a bit jaggy here, telling Weiss that Weiss got burned on American; "The ride from 7 to 2 wasn't fun," and Weiss had to admit, "It was painful going down" but said he didn't lose that whole amount.

Stephanie Link said to "stay with" APC.

Herb Greenberg cautioned against gluten-free wunderkind BDBD, starting with the receivables growing faster than sales and contending, "the end market for that is relatively small though," and then saying that a dietitian advises people who don't require gluten-free products to avoid them because it's a higher-calorie diet. Stephen Weiss still insisted that people will buy it like vitamins because they think it'll make them healthier.

Mike Murphy's Final Trade was GNW. Stephen Weiss said to short JCP and also buy puts in IWM. Jon Najarian said buy DNR, and Stephanie Link said PPG.

[Wednesday, September 25, 2013]

CNBC signs documents it doesn’t even bother to read

Just a day ago (hit PgDn a few times), this page noted that Eamon Javers might've been taking liberties with the Theory of Relativity in regards to this "7 millisecond" gap between Chicago and Washington, D.C.

Lo and behold (careful tiptoeing toward a Self-Brag Trade), lookie here: Javers' official report on the subject, at CNBC.com, makes no mention of "7 milliseconds," but rather just "milliseconds."

What's more, Javers delivered an update on Wednesday's Halftime Report about how the Fed is contacting news organizations to determine if disclosure rules were violated.

In this report, Javers 3 times used the words "before 2 p.m.," and Jon Najarian also referred to "prior to 2 p.m."

Evidently, yesterday's story, in which the culprits were some HFT gang defeating the Theory of Relativity with post-2 p.m. trading, has now morphed into some media outlet actually dispensing the data "before" 2 p.m.

Javers had the audacity to complain about the Fed not disclosing what the rules are, a fine complaint, only to admit that the suits at CNBC who sign important papers don't have a clue either. "We signed a document uh, uh, on the rules. You would think the Fed would be able to tell us what rules we were playing by when we were inside that room," Javers said.

And, you'd think someone signing important papers would know what he/she is signing.

Jon Najarian at one point praised Javers' "great reporting yesterday."

This report is a JCP-since-mid-July-caliber mess.

Let's advance the headline for Day 3: It'll be Ackman's fault.

Or Ron Johnson's.

‘Who are we to question Bezos,’ but then everybody does

Dan Nathan, responding on Wednesday's Fast Money to Jon Fortt's report about Amazon's new tablet, first said, "Who are we to question Bezos."

Then he said, "I just don't know that they're creating a product on the tablet side, not on the e-reader side, that that- is that compelling."

Jon Najarian agreed, saying that if they're selling the tablets for $139, then Amazon is losing "60-some odd dollars per tablet in my mind. Uh, that's a losing strategy. Uh, I don't like that."

Guy Adami predicted the stock "trades 300," not because it's a nice round number but because it's the "retracement" of the recent gain/pullback. Adami conceded viewers get "apoplectic" when the stock is mentioned favorably on the show; "I get the valuation is stretched."

‘We get a deal on Monday’

Larry McDonald, who didn't get the greatest treatment from CNBC's hair salon before his appearance on Wednesday's Fast Money, offered a labyrinth of federal-government events that quite frankly left us in the dust by about early October.

"I don't think we get a shutdown," McDonald said, asserting "we get a deal on Monday," which will be for 40 days, but then you're supposed to start fading that around the 8th, but after that, "the president's gonna cave on the individual mandate" and a few other things, and then the selloff will be a buying opportunity as there's another deal, and it's all the "beginning of a grand bargain."

Mel Lee claimed to be a fan of Sinatra.

‘The high end has never been doing better’

Wednesday's Fast Money crew touched the 3rd rail of U.S. economic common sense, as Guy Adami actually admitted, "I thought the consumer's been strapped all along."

Mike Khouw agreed, asserting "the U.S. consumer is not in such great shape."

Josh Brown tried to argue that WMT's issues "might be Wal-Mart specific" and countered that "the high end has never been doing better."

That brought disbelief from Dan Nathan, who pointed to RL, COH and M as signs of struggling.

Jon Najarian, however, revealed that they were talking previously in the green room about how, in his opinion, "I think the Bloomberg reporter totally got this wrong" on the Wal-Mart report, and that it sounds like WMT was just trying to exert leverage.

Later Najarian answered his own WMT question. "Out of the woods? I don't know that they were in the woods."

As Melissa Lee rattled off a bunch of names including Dick's, Chris Horvers said the retail scene is a "minority of haves and majority of have-nots." He said home plays have been working.

Guy Adami stood by his 1,670 S&P target but said viewers might try GPS on weakness. Adami pronounced a government shutdown as "No. 1 on the list" of market worries.

No airline ETF

Jon Najarian argued on Wednesday's Fast Money that airlines such as DAL remain a buy, because there is less supply and more demand, and the options remain hot.

Dan Nathan, with no catalyst whatsoever, argued that this is one of the worst industries of all time, "built to fail," and "this is not a good entry point."

Guy Adami allowed, "The industry's getting better," and even though the stocks "may have gotten ahead of themselves," he'd "stay with it."

Josh Brown suggested that a big reason for airline-stock success is the fact there's actually no airline ETF, or other place to go. Mike Khouw said October 25 UAL puts were active, though he said it's a cheap play on a fairly unlikely event.

Great ticker symbol, FU

Dan Nathan's advice for YHOO holders on Wednesday's Fast Money was, "I think you follow Dan Loeb," and get out when Loeb does.

Josh Brown called FU, which enjoyed a nice pop from the show's mention, "an advertising play in China ... the momentum guys are all over this stock. I hear it everywhere."

Jon Najarian repeated that in MAKO, "there were multiple trades in here Mel ... the secret wasn't very well kept." (But were they all done within 7 milliseconds of the Fed releasing the data?)

Josh Brown called DRYS the "coolest thing happening in the market right now ... anything that ships iron ore." Mike Khouw, however, early in the show called DRYS a "very speculative" name.

Khouw said "I'm not really a big fan" of CCL.

Jon Najarian said the "Street liked what it heard" regarding NE being 2 companies.

Dan Nathan said if you're tired of hearing about BBRY, it's nearing the end, an "absolute disaster," and we think Steve Grasso must be out by now, but maybe not.

Guy Adami said of DB, "I think it goes down again over the next week or so."

Guy: Chase BBBY

IMMR chief Victor Viegas was welcomed onto Wednesday's Fast Money as the show dabbled heavily in very small-cap names, and he proceeded to like everything about the company's products and growth rate.

"I wish I owned it," said Jon Najarian.

Josh Brown explained, "This is not a fly-by-night, brand-new company ... hedge funds have been nipping this thing up ... big holders will probably be buying on dips."

Guy Adami said you don't have to rush out and buy it, but "it's not a crazy multiple."

Jon Najarian also lamented not holding BBBY; "wish I owned it; I don't." Guy Adami actually said you can chase this stock, though he's concerned about margins coming down.

Josh Brown took the other side. "I wouldn't chase it ... this thing could put in a blowoff top," Brown said, tossing in an "I gotta tell ya."

Chris Horvers said that BBBY would be susceptible to housing weakness.

Mike Khouw said he prefers PCLN to CTRP.

Mike Farr suggested rebalancing your portfolio by reducing gains in banking, housing and consumer discretionary stocks. Dan Nathan said he agrees it'll be hard for financial multiples to expand but actually mentioned "grand bargain."

Josh Brown said of HAIN, "I like it here." Guy Adami noted that Irwin Simon has been on the show 10 times, which of course are 10 reasons why Guy probably likes the stock.

Guy Adami suggested (this is a developing Fast Money cliche) that GOOG has been taking a hit as FB rises (unclear how AAPL fits into this), but he thinks 850 holds. Adami's Final Trade was SAM.

Dan Nathan said of F, "You wanna buy on a pullback." Nathan's Final Trade was sell ZNGA.

Josh Brown's Final Trade was selling banks. Jon Najarian said long THOR. Mike Khouw said to look at options that are suggesting a 20% chance of a JCP bankruptcy by Jan. 15.

Steve Weiss actually thinks JCP shoppers know what price the stock is

Give him some credit for guts: Mike Murphy admitted on Wednesday's Halftime Report that he bought JCP Wednesday morning, "around 10.60."

He's got a 9.90 stop, and didn't seem to grasp the gravity of what Pete Najarian was saying about how it's possible it could gap far below that (as well as possibly gapping to the upside).

Najarian said he'd play it with call spread to get a bigger ride if the stock goes up, but Murphy insisted he's only risking 5% to make 40%.

Stephen Weiss did his usual scoffing and implied that suppliers and shoppers alike see a wounded duck; "customers look at the stock price."

Judge fails to ask panel if anyone will want to buy YHOO once Alibaba is public

Jon Najarian, evidently stung by that pro-ZNGA call around earnings a while back that he admitted was a bust, unleashed a pent-up Brag Trade on Wednesday's Halftime Report, saying folks who laughed at that pick, "They're not laughing so much anymore."

Naturally, we wondered if this page had done any of that laughing.

Apparently, no. In fact, we noted on Friday, July 26, that Najarian told Wapner, "Completely out of the stock by Monday at the latest."

And then this page said: "Honestly, not to pile on, but we couldn't help but wonder whether, in the wake of the selloff, Najarian's initial prediction was a good one, that in fact people on Friday and Monday should be buying the shares Najarian is unloading because it looks like a pretty steep washout."

Shoots, scores.

(Hey, if Barron's can congratulate itself for things it wrote months ago, so can we.)

Najarian said both Twitter and Alibaba "have to be leaning strong to the NYSE" for their IPO-listing service needs.

Mike Murphy said the Nasdaq has the most at stake and might make interesting pitches.

For the first time on Fast Money/Halftime, we heard someone give credit to either Terry Semel or Jerry Yang for scooping up Alibaba, as Pete Najarian said that while the current CEO deserves credit, "a lot of it also goes to previous CEOs."

Pete said AMZN's Kindle isn't designed to crush the market but get more people to buy things from Amazon. (And we thought it was supposed to cross-link to Washington Post articles about Prince George's County.) And, Najarian said, there's a "Mayday button" that might be a big deal.

Disheartened about BBRY, Stephen Weiss said, "I think the stock goes lower."

Sometimes you get a Milton Berle, or a Pat Sajak

Chipper guest Beth Lilly told Wednesday's Halftime crew that she likes the smaller-cap names here.

Then she explained she's looking for the "Rodney Dangerfields on their way to becoming Bob Hopes."

Not only was that bad enough, but after someone chuckled that both are dead, Lilly referred to "Rodney Dangerfulls" (sic) before endorsing STKL, SRDX and BIOS, the latter an "$8 stock on its way to 16."

SRDX evokes memories as being a Tim Sykes call in the CNBC Million-Dollar Portfolio Challenge, probably circa 2006 or 2007, although we honestly can't remember whether he called it a short candidate, or a short-squeeze candidate.

Meanwhile, Anthony Scaramucci dialed in from Singapore, where the SALT gang is getting an autumn warmup before the real fun happens in Vegas in May. Scaramucci said "we remain bullish" into year-end, but that it's hard to get that excited about the U.S. economy until unemployment drops below 6% and tapering either happens or ends.

Did he actually expect them to trumpet Brazil?

In one of his more dubious intros in a while, Judge Wapner opened Wednesday's Halftime Report by asking panelists if the U.S. was still the best place for stocks.

Pete Najarian hailed airlines as evidence of that. Stephen Weiss said yes, and that just a "slight pickup" in the economy would be a big boost for companies.

Jon Najarian offered as evidence, somehow, of U.S. strength that, "We see shippers doing extraordinarily well."

Mike Murphy, though, said in the short term, Europe and the emerging markets might actually outperform.

Gemma Godfrey (Zzzz) equivocated as she always does, saying on the one hand the U.S. is better for sustained longer-term growth but that could have some better, shorter-term prospects, and then said Google's investing a bunch in technology, but investors have to weigh the costs of those kinds of investments.

Judge tried to make a joke about Godfrey being a "quantum physicist."

Pete Najarian at one point said that the S&P seems magnetized to 1,700, and that as long the financials stay OK, any selloff will just be a "blip."

Mike Murphy singled out F as a play on global growth that will get going once it restarts some European factories.

Doc: Buy NKE at 61

Pete Najarian announced on Wednesday's Halftime Report that several energy names are still hopping in the options market, including NS (December 40 calls hot), END, WLL and NFX.

Nevertheless, Anthony Grisanti opined that "this is the time of year when you sell gas ... I expect 20 cents lower."

Rich Ilczyszyn agreed; "I'm a seller from 2.70 to 2.75."

Mike Murphy thinks DRYS "can continue to run."

Jon Najarian said CCL is hovering around the 32 level, and "that's the level that I'd buy it," citing Mickey "Arinson" (sic).

Stephen Weiss noted DB's outlook and asserted, "This spells opportunity for Citigroup."

Jon Najarian implied that someone had the goods on SYK and MAKO before the deals happened, he saw it on the screens multiple times.

Mike Murphy's NKE bull argument was based on the "10-year chart." Jon Najarian, not much of a bear, said he'd buy the 2nd week in October at 61. Pete agreed with Jon; "I think we get a pullback."

Pete claimed MW is "going higher," called BX "absolutely" a buy, and made AMAT his Final Trade, "it's gonna go a lot higher."

Stephen Weiss called MS a buy and made XLF his Final Trade.

Jon Najarian called BBBY a buy and made STZ his Final Trade. Mike Murphy said he wouldn't chase SBUX here, but had JPM for his Final Trade.

[Tuesday, September 24, 2013]

Melissa in shades!

They kind of pooh-pooh'ed it on Fast Money, but a week ago CNBC premiered Melissa Lee's documentary, "Rise of the Machines."

And, we had a few comments, so we thought we'd share.

We also figured we'd share some images, such as Mel twice wearing the blue skirt you see below with a different black top (not just the sleeveless va-va-voom below), as well as our favorite, the hip shades on the railroad, with reflective safety smock gonna get in trouble here and That. Is. Cute.

Fast Money gang tries in vain to get David Gerstenhaber to sell his NFLX position

David Gerstenhaber visited the Nasdaq for Tuesday's edition of Fast Money, and it became readily apparent that the gang was far more interested in discussing Gersternhaber's stocks than Gerstenhaber was.

Most polarizing was Gerstenhaber's ongoing gain from NFLX, presently under assault from Joe Terranova (who was not on this show).

Gerstenhaber told the panel, "I don't think it's over for this stock," citing international expansion as a risk as well as the competition, but explaining he hasn't bought put protection or lightened up, but still owns it in "unprotected fashion," which alarmed Pete Najarian.

Steve Grasso (presumably an unpaid spokesman) asked about Amazon's competition and practically delivered an advertisement for Amazon Prime. Gerstenhaber, evidently referring to NFLX and not AMZN (though that wasn't 100% clear), said, "This is not a stock for the faint of heart."

Gerstenhaber succinctly explained that he's done with EBAY because "it's just not growing rapidly enough ... I sort of lost patience with it."

However, "I quite like the Macau-based casinos," he said, mentioning Galaxy (we think you either have to go OTC or the Hong Kong market for that) and Melco. He said it's too early to determine a winner in Japan. Pete Najarian said there was "activity today in Las Vegas Sands."

Guy Adami asked about BX; Gerstenhaber said there's "still upside." He doesn't think JPM will outperform; "I think it gets caught up with the market."

Gerstenhaber twice said there could be market "indigestion" this week, but stocks should be strong in the 4th quarter; "I really don't see the risk of a significant setback in this environment."

Grasso: Buy any selloff

Steve Grasso sort of echoed both ends of the present stock market, saying at the top of Tuesday's Fast Money that "guys are more than happy to trim their gains ... I think you're gonna see more selling," but moments later adding, "stay long all your tech plays ... stay long banks, stay long financials," and by the end of the show concluding, "Any selloff in the market, you wanna be a buyer." (Well, it's already sold off, what 30 points, but who's counting.)

Guy Adami forecasted, "I do think we're going down to 1,670," and he thinks CAT will fall to 81.

Brian Kelly actually invoked Benjamin Graham in calling the market a short-term "voting mechanism."

Pete Najarian thundered that over 50% of options activity is in weeklies or the next month. Pete said energy has done so great recently, "I've actually been trimming those names."

Pete said he'd pick SBUX over GMCR, but he thinks you "still gotta stay away" from CCL.

Steve Grasso said the airlines are going higher, a theme echoed in Pete Najarian's Final Trade of long JBLU. Guy Adami said LEN experienced a "bounce off a (sic) oversold condition" and said he'd sell it Wednesday afternoon. Brian Kelly said JCPenney sucks, like Raymond Babbitt said about Kmart, which the panel found almost as entertaining as whether Melissa likes America.

Guy Adami endorses another stock of an in-studio guest

Pete Najarian argued on Tuesday's Fast Money that FB can still go higher, because of the "mobile revenue" stream it's discovering. Brian Kelly, who packed his attache case full of cliches for this program, said he'd quote Yogi Berra in that it's so crowded that nobody goes there anymore, and when Twitter comes out it'll be like those GlenGarry leads.

Guy Adami said he agreed with Pete; "you own it until they report."

Brian Stutland said there was "tons of call-buying today" in FB, specifically the October 46.

Guy Adami predicted for LNKD "another all-time high at a certain point."

Dan Primack told the gang that Twitter for a long time has been trying to be the "anti-Facebook," so perhaps that will affect the listing decision. Guy Adami dismissed the notion of shorting NDAQ if it doesn't land the Twitter listing; "I'd be very careful doing that ... definitely not a short to me," he said.

WBMD chief David Schlanger said his company has experienced "very substantial demand for mobile" and downplayed the notion that Google is competing in his space; "as I understand it."

Guy Adami said that if you can stomach the volatility, you should "continue to own" the stock, but be warned, the "valuation is extraordinarily high."

Jon Fortt spoke with INTU boss Brad Smith, who said Square brings the "best of all worlds." Guy Adami said of the stock, "I would rather be a seller than a buyer."

Steve Grasso's Final Trade was TSLA. Brian Kelly said USO and Guy Adami said AGCO.

How fast can light travel from Washington, D.C., to Chicago?

Eamon Javers delivered breaking news on Tuesday's Halftime Report, explaining that the Federal Reserve is examining how journalists might be handling data before the official release, given that the machines were trading Fed headlines 7 milliseconds after 2 p.m. Eastern.

Javers happened to say this:

"According to Albert Einstein's Theory of Relativity, it is impossible for information to travel between Washington, D.C., and Chicago in less than 7 milliseconds."

Now, when it comes to math, we can barely tell the difference between earned-run average and a QB passer rating.

So, we asked the experts on the Internet, how fast does light travel in a millisecond?

The answer, according to some "Wiki Answers" site, is 186 miles.

Chicago and Washington, D.C., are 700 miles apart.

So ... wouldn't that mean light can get from Washington, D.C., to Chicago in under 4 milliseconds?

Javers reiterated, "The speed of light, believe it or not, is still too slow." #dangit #repeatalgebraInextsummer

We're guessing there is perhaps a wrinkle, in which a headline for various technical reasons can't travel this particular route quite as quickly as a flash of light.

But then again, never count on this page for math expertise.

Mr. New World made the most relevant point (without noting that it's probably a Bermuda holding company based in Switzerland): "Obviously they have the identity of who made the trades ... why is it so difficult then to know?"

NFLX up 4, PCLN up 9

Dr. New World is keeping his foot on the accelerator.

Joe Terranova told Tuesday's Halftime Report that it won't be until earnings start coming in the "2nd week of October" before the stock-market rally reignites, and "I'm more troubled by the price action."

As a result, "I am going after momentum stocks," Terranova declared, saying he shorted PCLN on Tuesday.

Stephen Weiss countered, "I remain bullish ... I'm not concerned."

Mike Murphy contended, "I would argue that the rally hasn't really stalled ... if we get the financials to resume their leadership role, we're at new highs shortly."

Jon Najarian pointed out that one momentum stock, FB, is red hot; "this stock is just one of those darlings," Najarian said, predicting it's "gonna continue a while" and that any consolidation is "healthy."

Steve Liesman observed that the Fed got a rally on its news release, but since, "it doesn't look like people are buying that rally."

Jonathan Krinsky said there's a "potential for this false breakout," and what he's more concerned about than the overall S&P level is "momentum and internal divergences." Specifically, "The percentage of S&P 500 stocks above their 200-day moving average" keeps hitting lower highs, Krinsky said, pointing to the Fed rally as 1-day event.

Steve Weiss rightly asked how many other times there are false breakouts and does the market always collapse afterward. Krinsky admitted, "It doesn't mean it's the most bearish thing in the world."

Joe Terranova insisted, "I don't think stocks respond positively going forward to economic contraction and continued Fed presence ... tapering is a motivation for it to move higher."

Well, aren't they going to taper soon?

Weiss pointed out we're still "just a hair off market highs." Liesman used the term "commensurate."

Terranova at one point declared he's launched a "war on momentum right now" ... but admitted he likes LNKD.

Honestly, Joe's the pro and we're just the amateurs, but we just ain't feelin' it. His bearish catalysts don't sound very convincing, and if Simon were smart he'd take the other side of those trades and perhaps get Joe to end up financing that first-class California airfare that's on the liability side of Simon's ledger.

Mike Mayo: MS 54 in 3 years

Mike Mayo made clear at the beginning of his remarks on Tuesday's Halftime Report where he stands — which is exactly the same place he stood the last time he was on the program.

"Morgan Stanley, Morgan Stanley, Morgan Stanley," Mayo said, predicting a double within 3 years.

"Buy the extended dip" in big banks, Mayo said, shrugging off fixed-income woes as a segment that's been down for more than 3 years and calling trading revisions "noise."

Stephen Weiss, who has suddenly liked MS for a couple months and mentioned that name and GS early in the show, apparently is on good terms with Mayo now, though he asked Tuesday about Citi cutting its mortage department staffing. Mayo said this is the worst decade for bank revenues maybe ever and so it's the right time to buy these stocks at "multi-year turning points."

Mike Murphy asked what's the difference between BAC and MS given that the charts are similar "to the T." Mayo said MS is going to have a tripling of wealth-management revenue.

Mayo touted an Asian conference — we thought he was going to mention the Moochmeister's SALT Singapore, but instead he touted the CLSA Hong Kong conference. Mayo also touted C; "you have to own that one also."

Joe Terranova said the gains in CIT continue; "John Thain's done an excellent job." Jon Najarian said, "I'm a little bit more of a hold-off here" on CIT.

Mike Murphy's Final Trade was JPM.

Crude has ‘good shot to go lower’ (i.e., John Kilduff wrong)

In not a total shocker, Rich Repetto told Judge Wapner on Tuesday's Halftime Report that both exchanges are "mum" on who's getting Twitter.

Jon Najarian questioned who in the world on Twitter's board would actually advocate for listing with the Nasdaq. Repetto stressed that nobody knows what kind of package Greifeld might be offering.

Joe Terranova declared, "ICE clearly wins" and is the "best trade" of the group.

Judge Wapner stressed that it's only been a "few" glitches by the Nasdaq that people have talked about.

Mike Murphy said if you're in LEN, "I'd be careful here ... take profits."

Stephen Weiss scoffed at the BBRY proposal. "I wouldn't even call this preliminary ... there's no financing; there's no deal." It's actually "pretty disturbing," he said, adding, "I'd frankly be a seller of the shares here."

Jon Najarian said BA got a boost because "Airbus came out with a very bullish statement." Stephen Weiss chided Najarian's "burnin'" aerospace terminology; Najarian said, "No more turning and burning for aircraft."

Jeff Kilburg said the Aug. 8 low of 102.22 is support for crude, but watch out for the U.N. headlines; "we are susceptible to any type of, uh, rhetoric." Rich Ilczyszyn asserted, "It's all about the trend right now," that he'd be selling a pop over 103 and thinks 100 possible if it breaks 102.22, overall has a "good shot to go lower."

Mike Murphy argued JCP "has enough cash" and if there's any positive news, there tends to be "massive short covering." Steve Weiss scoffed that "the revolver's almost expended" and look at how low BBRY fell from its highs, which JCP is still a ways from. Weiss asked what happens when they have to raise money via equity, and Murphy said he doesn't know.

Dr. New Land's Final Trade was LQD. Steve Weiss said short JCP, and Jon Najarian said ABBV.

[Monday, September 23, 2013]

In 25 years, it’ll be Bailout III

Not only did he interrupt Herb Greenberg's questions-upon-questions analysis of BBRY, but Phil LeBeau failed to drum up much excitement among Monday's Fast Money crew in a Chrysler IPO.

Guy Adami said at one point that nobody on the panel would be surprised if the Chrysler IPO top-ticked the auto sector.

Karen Finerman said an offering of $1 billion is not a big deal, less than 1% of global auto market-cap.

J.C. Parets said F and GM might have another 3-4% left in them but they're in the final legs of a run, and "I say sell the autos."

Guy Adami reiterated he likes DLPH and BWA. Phil LeBeau pointed out that Chrysler is a heavily North American operation.

J.C. Parets, Brag Trade I

Joe Terranova on Monday's Halftime Report was just unveiling his NFLX short.

By Monday's Fast Money, J.C. Parets was already gloating about cashing in.

Parets, with a cupboard full of Brag Trades on Monday, said he bought NFLX puts around the highs of Monday's open, and it was "one of the best trades we've had in weeks."

But, "We actually covered all the puts at the end of the day," Parets revealed.

Herb Greenberg, awkwardly pulling up a chair as Melissa Lee equally awkwardly seemed to be expecting Phil LeBeau to break in earlier than he did, was asked to opine on the BBRY deal/offer whatever and complained that in terms of a buyer, "No one seems to be there."

Karen Finerman opined that the Fairfax offer is a "C-quality or worse deal" and that "9's the ceiling, not the floor."

J.C. Parets said the stock is basically in "hospice" care and scolded Fairfax, "never average down on a loser."

Steve Grasso remained undaunted, saying he'll get out of the name "if it breaks today's low."

Guy Adami said RHT could fall to 45 or even 42½. Adami suggested it's possible to short ORCL as long as you keep a tight 34.50 stop.

J.C. Parets, Brag Trade II

Guy Adami admitted on Monday's Fast Money he was "very surprised" that after breaking his 465 level, AAPL didn't crash a lot further.

Now, he sees possible tailwinds from this month's headwinds, in that they can get a CHL deal and do a bigger phone.

Karen Finerman, standing by her momentum-trade bust sale in the name recently, said, "I don't know that there's a lot additional" catalysts for going higher.

Adami asserted the stock can get to the "525 level."

J.C. Parets concluded, "I think Karen's gonna be right ... probably dead money," and then patted himself on the back for dismissing the AAPL golden cross a while back, "I think I made a good argument." But he said if long the name, he'd short SPYs against it, where he sees a relative advantage.

Steve Grasso was the designated Panelist-Who-Complains-About-Hate-Mail-While-Discussing-AAPL on Monday, saying investor passion has quelled since the death of Steve Jobs. "They don't see it as a real emotional attachment anymore," Grasso said.

Adami: S&P to 1,670

In a curiously scattershot opening to Monday's Fast Money involving "wild" trades, Steve Grasso suggested LNKD could be vulnerable, perhaps the "momentum, starting to chip away."

Karen Finerman said she'd short LNKD. But Guy Adami said, "I think LinkedIn is fine still."

Grasso conceded that this is one of the jewels of the broader market, and "These stocks will get even more momentum" if the broad market rises.

J.C. Parets said he would fade biotech. Guy Adami was on board, suggesting CELG could fall to 135.

Adami patted himself on the back for that 1,725-peak call and then said he was reiterating, "I think it's gonna pull back to 1,670." (Actually, he said 1,680 last week, but who's counting.)

Steve Grasso cautioned that 70-80% of hedge funds are likely trailing the S&P 500, and they might start to "lean" on shares to drop as a way to even the score.

Cliché that Dennis Gartman did NOT invoke on Monday (there actually were a couple): charts that go from lower left to upper right

Guest Don Hodges told Monday's Fast Money that he likes the airlines, "they've learned how to price," and his favorites are UAL and DAL, the latter of which is going to cost Simon Baker 1st-class airfare to California.

Guy Adami tried to issue a shout-out to Friend of the Show Dave Barger in the form of a question to Hodges, but Hodges admitted, "I haven't paid that much attention to JetBlue."

Hodges claimed shippers are in the "initial stages of a turnaround" and that he has been dabbling in DSX and DRYS. He also told Steve Grasso that the China growth plays such as FCX could be 40-50% higher within 2 years.

Dennis Gartman, meanwhile, who brought up how he's been doing this 40 years and he's interested in things that hurt when you drop 'em on your foot, explained, "I hate the yen," it's one of the "doomed currencies," and that the pressure on the yen has made it feel like it's trading at 85 when it's really 98, but he hates it.

Gartman assured Steve Grasso that coal plays aren't completely dead, they're no longer making new lows, and over time, a 30-40% gain is possible, "sure."

Brian Stutland said someone was heavily buying weekly 27.5 puts in Morgan Stanley.

3D Systems chief Avi Reichental, probably motivated by recent appearances by Brad Lamensdorf and Glen Kacher (either "total joke" or "somewhat of a joke"), visited the Nasdaq Monday to tout the "mainstream manufacturing" capabilities of the science.

He said his company makes 40% margin on the printers, and 70% margin on the materials, the latter prompting a "wow" from Melissa Lee.

Reichental said Lamensdorf's argument that they're pulling revenue forward "defies logic," and affirmed, "We stand by our guidance."

Karen Finerman said she took her kids to a 3-D printing show and was amazed by things they were making, such as model homes.

Finerman said she's not yet ready to plunge into advertising now that hedge funds are going to get free reign. "I will watch for a while," Finerman said. Steve Grasso said it will help cable companies.

Grasso's Final Trade was LVS. J.C. Parets said long Treasurys. Karen Finerman said to be out of BBRY. Guy Adami said long WMT.

Lofty stuff that sounds cool (but really doesn’t mean anything) (cont’d)

Judge Wapner tripped over an unlikely subject — himself — on Monday's Fast Money when he persisted for some bizarre reason in asking Paul Hickey about the "impact" of the new stocks on the Dow. (To be honest, over the weekend, that wasn't exactly a common question we were hearing at the cocktail parties.)

Judge seemed to be concerned that the new additions will stop growing.

But Hickey, admitting on the 2nd effort that he was a little confused as to what the question was, pointed out, "The names they took out were even slower-growing."

Steve Weiss finished off this dubious thread by somehow claiming the revamped Dow is "more of a realistic view of just the entire complex."

Say what?

No one on Fast Money/Halftime has ever defined the purpose of the Dow. According to the McGraw Hill Financial description, the "purpose" of the Dow Jones industrial average is "to provide a clear, straightforward view of the stock market and, by extension, the U.S. economy."

Or something Weiss calls a "complex."

Somehow, an HMO is deemed a more "straightforward" view of the economy than either Bank of America or Google. Surely if this index is indeed a "clear, straightforward view" of the U.S. economy, then the economy of the last 4 years has been utterly on fire.

Unless, given the brief tenure of BAC, the index is just a glorified momentum trade.

Hickey said the market has merely been stalled by "seasonal tendencies" that occur in late September and which will fall by the "wayside" in October. He likened 2013 to 1995, in which there was still 4% more to go from this point until year-end.

Joe shorts Netflix

Just a couple weeks ago, he lamented the possibility of waking up and finding NFLX down $50.

Now, he's evidently all for it, as Joe Terranova revealed on Monday's Halftime Report what can best be described as a high-wire investment act.

"I actually am short the stock," Mr. New World explained, assuring that there's nothing "fundamentally" wrong with the name, but that short interest is down 14% since Sept. 10, and, most curiously, "Today's range has the chance to take out the entire range over the last 2 weeks."

Jon Najarian said he'd love to buy the stock at 294 and thinks it's a "great stock going forward," his only fear being Carl Icahn getting out, but he doesn't think Carl is getting out.

Herb Greenberg, who despite being on CNBC more often now than before he "left" the company (if we were suspicious, we might wonder if Herb's arrangement has something to do with ObamaCare), was woefully underprepared to make a bear case here, accusing Najarian of pretending cable companies don't exist and concluding of Netflix growth, "The trend isn't what it once was."

Stephen Weiss, actually believing this is an EPS story (perhaps it has something to do with his view of the "complex"), grumbled that the stock is "grossly overvalued."

Hmmm. 300, once roughly the all-time high, feels like support. This name always gets bought. 350 is coming before 250. The gut here is that Joe is making a mistake. However, he might easily catch $20-$30 on a pullback if he's timely, in which case, over several weeks, it might be a win-win for both sides.

Stephanie can’t do an AAPL model, not enough visibility

Half the panel sat on its hands as Monday's Halftime Report crew tackled AAPL's big day.

Dr. New Land was opinion-challenged here, telling Judge Wapner that the issue is, "can this stock finally push through 500," and then frankly taking a pass and saying he'd have to wait and see what happens before making a call, the way Jeff Tomasulo always used to do.

Stephanie Link admitted, "I have no visibility on margins."

Stephen Weiss impressively hung a price target — $550 — on the stock, and predicted, "That'll be the top."

Jon Najarian aligned himself in that camp. "I think Stephen's dead on."

Gene Munster, whose 640 target is well above Weiss' ceiling, tried to explain why analyst phone-sale estimates were off. "I think it was the channel-fill with the 5C," Munster said, which with his explanation of discontinuing a phone sounds reasonable, although this page probably stopped caring about AAPL opening weekends in 2010.

Judge, in one of his rockier performances, caught Munster in dead air while making a comment about the Carl-Cook meeting that Munster didn't realize was being phrased in the form of a question.

Stephanie Link admitted "I was obviously wrong" about a bearish summer call on QCOM. Steve Weiss and Jon Najarian said they're long the name.

Mr. New Land did take a stand on P, predicting the price reaches 21½ or 22.

Joe: ‘Possibly 90’ for KORS

Joe Terranova said on Monday's Halftime Report that his GS long is a lot smaller than Friday, because "Technically the market wants to pull back."

Stephen Weiss called C "a compelling buy right here," though Stephanie Link later advised letting the "dust settle" in the name.

Jon Najarian pointed out that regionals such as PNC and KEY have been disproportionately hit in the banking space.

Stephen Weiss called TRIP "overvalued." Joe Terranova predicted "80, maybe possibly 90," for KORS, the Marlboro of fashion stocks, then admitted it also might fall into the 60s. #thatkindofday

Jon Najarian said the Jefferies downgrade was "being shrugged off" of ULTA.

Doc: Wait a bit on Z

Sarah Ketterer told Monday's Halftime Report that "not much will change in German politics" as a result of the big Merkel win, and said she likes Akzo Nobel (viewers are bound to plunge into that one) and SI, as she put it, "Zeemans."

Ketterer also seemed to like emerging markets, pointing out the EEM's valuation compared to the U.S. market, "you could drive a truck through that valuation difference."

Dr. New Land shrugged and said that's fine for the long term, but you want to be "U.S.-centric" near term.

Stephen Weiss and Stephanie Link, who on every program sound like they bumped cars at 8:30 a.m. in the Englewood Cliffs parking lot, argued both ends of Ketterer's comments and even dragged Joe into it this time, with Link protesting that she didn't bring up emerging markets.

Stephanie Link said she'd buy FDX under 110. Link said Cramer has trimmed some FB but is "still long it for the long term." Link's Final Trade wasn't fully audible.

Joe Terranova said the GM preferred announcement is a "great dea" and said he likes KMX.

Joe even reached deeply into the bag of tricks to pull out LPX, explaining he likes that name, HD and appliance makers in the housing space more than the builders because he doesn't like the builders' balance sheets. Joe's Final Trade was short PCLN.

Stephen Weiss said he's short JCP and called LLY a hold. His Final Trade was VOD.

Jon Najarian said of Z, "I think it could go a little bit lower," and advised waiting "another day or two" before buying.

Herb Greenberg was inexplicably given a Final Trade and said something about watching GMCR. (Yes, how were brewer sales in the last quarter and do we really know all the brewer data we need to know?)

[Friday, September 20, 2013]

Guy Adami on fire

Yes, it was just a day ago he couldn't explain to Karen Finerman why CNBC graphics were showing gold up $50 on Wednesday and up $60 on Thursday to roughly the same price each day, and in fact wrongly accused K-Fine of watching August futures, watching December futures, "I know English, Monday, Tueday, Friday, Thursday, Saturday, Wednesday," etc.

And, admittedly, on Thursday he claimed "the gold trade is back intact."

All of that is forgotten amid The Negotiator's phenomenally pinpoint S&P call this week, predicting a surge to 1,725 and then a pullback (which took flight Friday) to 1,680. (It may not get there, but we're not betting against him.)

Not only that, he nailed FDX's gain and correctly affirmed a CAT short late in the week.

None of this got much mention (save for FDX) on Friday's Fast Money, which opened with an assessment of BBRY's collapse.

Guy Adami credited Steve Grasso for a while ago correctly stating it could rise north of $10, but Adami also credited Karen Finerman with a broader view. Adami called the stock "definitely a no-touch here."

Steve Grasso, sensitive to a fault on this name, could've been more sensitive about his mike, which wasn't properly hooked up and in his opening remarks amplified the whole room.

Grasso said BBRY longs are buying it for "event-driven" moves, and that it's not an investment, but a "tradeable position."

John Woods called a BBRY sale a "pipe dream" and said he would short it. Grasso scoffed, "That's irresponsible."

Tim Seymour said, "I would not be jumping in here," but he's aware that others are circling the name.

Louise Yamada assured that "the uptrend is intact" in the S&P 500, and advised using the June low of 1,575 as a point of reference. Yamada allowed that there are "momentum divergences developing," which she said can last 4, 6 or 9 months, and we honestly didn't really know what she was talking about.

For interest rates, Yamada said it "looks like a base," and explained that "1946 was the last rising-rate cycle beginning."

Tim Seymour advised not letting the Fed change your global thesis; "go back to where you were on Tuesday."

Steve Grasso stoically said that if health exchanges are pushed back, that's a "huge headwind for HMOs," and he would wait; "I'd rather buy 'em on momentum."

Guy Adami said he likes THC.

Adami said "I stay away" from homebuilders.

Tim Seymour said he'd "wait for 440" in AAPL.

Seymour said that ahead of the German elections, "I would be long the dollar into this."

Steve Grasso said he's back in TSLA, "I own it at these levels," and made it his Final Trade.

Tim Seymour said BA is going higher, said he likes LO best in tobacco for its presence in the "fledgling market" of ecigarettes, and made EEM at 41.40 his Final Trade.

Guy Adami said of FDX, "This is where you sell it." He wasn't too impressed by a Twitterer who claimed to have made money Friday in GS puts, and he made LGF his Final Trade.

John Woods said of crude, "you gotta buy it here," and made BP his Final Trade.

Harold Ford admits Republicans have ‘some ammunition’ to change part of ObamaCare

Harold Ford, who sort of has dual roles these days as a Morgan Stanley executive/moderate Democratic voice on cable TV political shows, seemed to indicate on Friday's Halftime Report that perhaps ObamaCare is not 100% perfect.

While chiding House GOP theatrics, Ford allowed, "If they want to change part of the health-care program, the Republicans, they probably have some ammunition to do it."

No, he probably shouldn't have used the term "ammunition" this week (although we're almost loath to even mention it in the course of defending him because these things get way carried out of context), and at a minimum, should've defined its usage here. Sadly, Judge didn't follow up on this intriguing comment, which suggests Ford sees weak spots in ObamaCare that either need to be, or could be, changed.

Ford started to mention that there's an "adult in Washington," and we figured he'd mention the president for sure, so we were surprised when he said it's Ben S. Bernanke. Stephen Weiss rightly observed of market reaction to budget battles, "Everybody's seen this movie before."

Basically all the House Republicans are doing is going on the record — to the furthest extent they can — that they don't like ObamaCare and/or think it will flop. If it does, they'll look great, and if it doesn't, no one will care. That's an appealing risk/reward strategy.

From ‘total joke’
to ‘somewhat of a joke’

In a crisp, albeit fireworks-challenged, hour of Halftime Report Friday, Judge Wapner welcomed a couple guest panelists, including Glen Kacher, who was persuaded to stay the entire hour and earned his stripes with a barrage of opinions more decisive than what an entire panel often delivers in a given show.

Kacher studiously described the 3-D printing space, in which he said a big part of the bull case hinges on manufacturing end-market goods.

That's "somewhat of a joke," he said.

Problem was, the screen graphic outlining Kacher's opinion actually said "It's a total joke."

Judge Wapner claimed it's already happening, in aerospace and defense. Josh Brown was not offended at seeing one of his recent picks insulted and allowed, "so far it's neesh" (sic, that's how he pronounces "niche"), but that's how these things start.

Kacher said he attended the Deutsche Bank tech confab and it was the "best macro-feeling tech conference ... in at least 5 quarters."

Shrugging off Apple's new product line to the dismay of Pete Najarian, who fought desperately for a 2nd-half-story endorsement of some kind, Kacher revealed, "We sold our Apple a few days after they showed the new iPhones."

"There's no question Android is winning globally," Kacher said, downplaying Apple's potential in China.

Kacher's tech thesis was highly China-centric, asserting that the Chinese Web space "has nothing to do with what the government is doing really" (snicker). He called Soufun "the Zillow of China," said he owns BIDU and LNKD, and said he's "incredibly excited about that IPO" of Alibaba.

Steve Weiss grumbled that as a favored company by the Chinese government, Alibaba sort of has an "impregnable moat."

Kacher likes SBAC and CCI in the tower space, and said, "We're fans of Facebook."

2 shout-outs for Gary Kaminsky

Rob Sechan was the other guest panelist on Friday's Halftime Report and, though he didn't stay beyond the opening segment, told Judge Wapner, "We are still overweight risk assets" and that if anything, people are too cautious.

Clients are "way offsides," Sechan contended; "they're holding tons and tons of cash" and asking about risk.

He said bull markets end on euphoria, and "I don't see euphoria." Which is true, and probably will be that way for a while as most people remember getting burned not just once, in 2008, but also in 2000-'02.

Josh Brown observed the end-of-week giveback in stocks and explained, "I don't know what to make of it." Pete Najarian called it "healthy," while Steve Weiss totally shrugged it off. "It's an easy-money policy ... we're going to reach new highs."

Perhaps trying to curry favor for some reason with Simon, who basically owes him first-class California airfare, Weiss actually claimed, "You've gotta be a stock picker, and you can't buy the ETFs anymore; that game's done." Wrong. If anything, you want to be careful not to be too picky, or you'll end up in EBAY and ORCL or the (exhausted) homebuilders while everyone else is making 30% in LinkedIn.

Weiss opined on AKS, "The steel stocks are not the place to be." Pete Najarian said there were "not a whole lot of good things in this report" from DRI, and you "can get it lower" later.

Pete argued a bull case on homebuilders, suggesting the Fed is keeping rates down and saying the Toll Brothers chief (he's a huge Neil Young fan, so he's got that going for him) indicated bullishness. Stephen Weiss scoffed that the builders are "all selling above book value." Josh Brown concluded that "household formation is still way below trend" and there are a "lot of pent-up home buyers," so he backs Pete.

We're always glad to see references to former Fast Money/Halftime stars (where were Patty and "Zeke" on Friday by the way), so it was refreshing that guest David Albrycht thought so much of his March appearance with Gary Kaminsky and "Carl" (that would be Quintanilla, not Icahn, and thus had to have been on Squawk on the Street) that he reiterated his thought that "the Fed had no exit strategy."

(Actually, we'll take the other side of that one (see, that's part of the whole "overthinking it" thesis), though we can't say exactly what it is.)

Albrycht predicted a 10-year range of 2.75% to 3.25% but asserted it would take "very very strong data" to get through 3.0%.

"We like high-yield," he said, but foreign markets are his favorite "without question."

Not only did Albrycht mention Gary Kaminsky, so did Harold Ford (who works for the same shop), after Judge said Gary would get a sit-down with Tim Geithner airing on CNBC and Ford told Wapner that he's a friend of Gary and curiously said "thank you all for loanin' him to us," suggesting Gary's days as Capital Markets muscleman may be far from over.

Pete Najarian's Final Trade was SYNA. Josh Brown said VGK, Stephen Weiss said "I'm short again" JCP, and Glen Kacher said long XOOM.

[Thursday, September 19, 2013]

  

Guy Adami unable to explain
how much gold actually moved
over 2 days

Guy Adami on Thursday's Fast Money re-asserted that the S&P is "overextended here" and predicted a pullback to 1,680. But the "gold trade is back intact," Adami claimed, citing the "irresponsibility of the Fed."

Karen Finerman, highly skeptical of gold, pointed out that it's no better than it was a week ago. Finerman also made a brilliant observation about something that flummoxed us on Wednesday, which is that apparently officially, gold seemed to go up about $50 on Wednesday and $60 on Thursday, but given where it is right at this moment compared with 2 days ago, "it looks like that is the same gain to me."

First, Adami claimed, "I know gold was up 40 or 50 bucks yesterday and an additional 40 or 50 bucks today if I'm not mistaken," then flustered by Finerman's point that it was $1,300 2 days ago, Adami started to say, "I don't know exactly what you're, again, I- I think you're looking at August futures or December futures, I'm not sure exactly what you're looking at."

Actually, she was likely looking at the graphic on CNBC's screens, like we unfortunately were doing (above).

The above image on the left is from Wednesday, shortly after 2 p.m. Eastern when the Fed decision was beginning to sink in. Notice we appear to have gold up $37 to $1,347.

To the right is approximately 24 hours later, shortly after 2 p.m. Eastern on Thursday. Notice by that point, we're somehow up $56, to 1,363.

Which implies that gold actually fell $2 on Wednesday.

Our guess is that there's an early cutoff time for official gold-price posting that was distorted by what happened Wednesday afternoon with after-hours futures, but we honestly have no idea.

It's just really bizarre.

Adami shrugged, "That's not really the point." And boy, what a great bull thesis that is: Get long, ignore whether the price was $1,300 or $1,260, because it's going higher, on somebody's scale at least.

Didn't this program used to trumpet something called "Trade School"?

Expert blames Fed, but not based on Grand Theft Auto sales

Money in Motion fox Rebecca Patterson (hopefully her hubby won't balk at that characterization ... just trying to pay a compliment ... just trying to be nice) visited the Nasdaq for Thursday's Fast Money and sounded as uptight as Dr. New World about the Fed decision.

"I thought it was a huge policy mistake," Patterson grumbled. "I think they blew a great opportunity, frankly."

Despite that, Patterson indicated a reluctant bullishness on stocks, based on buybacks, global recovery and not having Larry Summers, more than offsetting what was a "strange decision to me."

Steve Grasso, who throughout the whole program resembled Brandon Weeden under center looking at a blitz package, stammered that viewers should use the "3-day rule" for the broad market, although, "I'm still long utilities. I'm still long gold."

Tim Seymour grumbled that the Fed "injected volatility into the markets." Mike Khouw concluded the new consensus, "I think equities are fully valued here."

Karen does much better at answering Tim’s HLF short question than Guy did answering her gold-price question

Karen Finerman on Thursday's Fast Money made the same comment she's made several times about the HLF situation; "I would be very curious to know the terms of Ackman's borrow."

Finerman explained to Tim Seymour that the price for shorting HLF — assuming anyone wants to do it now, and she doesn't — is not prohibitive. "It's not crazy, it's just not available," Finerman said.

Melissa Lee clarified that this is "deep end of the pool kinda stuff."

Guy Adami re-offered one of his own tired lines on the subject, the notion that Ackman is probably right about something, "maybe some of the premises he has are gonna be correct," but that doesn't mean Carl won't win.

Construct a costly, complicated robot to announce when your medication time is

Guy Adami and Tim Seymour staged a half-hearted bull-bear debate over GS on Thursday's Fast Money, but at least nobody snapped this time while getting interrupted.

Adami, who put together some screen text (yes, it made more sense than CNBC's gold-price graphic), predicted an Oct. 17 earnings beat. Seymour argued that "price to tangible book puts them in the middle of the pack."

Karen Finerman was barely heard to suggest that Adami might "get girls with the graphic," the most exciting comment of the program.

Finerman concluded, "I would be long Goldman Sachs," that "premier" name. Mike Khouw said GS 170 September calls were hot.

Guy Adami ranked steel names in the order of NUE, X and then AKS a distant 3rd. "I think Nucor's still OK here," he said.

Tim Seymour touted GGB but said his favorite is MT. Steve Grasso pointed to shippers DRYS and DSX, and boy, don't we remember the days DRYS was in the upper $100s.

Karen Finerman, who made a brilliant long-term call in NM, confirmed of the shippers, "I'm in 'em ... they're volatile."

Not really sure how he was actually leaning, Steve Grasso said JCP might work if the "overhang lifts." Mike Khouw said LEN just reversed from a day ago. Tim Seymour was skeptical of CAG; "You don't need to jump in and buy this weakness." Guy Adami offered constructive advice on RF; "I think it gets 9 bucks," and 9.20 is good risk/reward.

Brian David Johnson introduced Intel's robot Jimmy, which he said (upon impressive prompting by Melissa Lee for real-world applications) can be used to approach the elderly and announce, "Remember to take your diabetes medication."

Face-ripped-off land

Brad Lamensdorf, a very reasonable-sounding chap, is one of our favorite semi-regulars on Fast Money, if only because touting short cases in a post-2008 stock market is like coaching the Washington Generals, yet it's still a committed bear thesis on various stocks that doesn't sound nearly as personal as Len Brecken's bizarre anti-NFLX campaign (which can't be working out too well this year).

Thursday, Lamensdorf conceded Melissa Lee's point that his returns have sucked. His rebuttal was that he found success with IBM and PAY, and that "We are not an alpha shop."

He claimed, "QE has been beaten to death frankly" (actually that was last year's Fast Money bear thesis around this time, the notion that QE is like a drip for a drug addict, it's no longer got any impact, and how many S&P points ago was that notion), and then asserted his credentials; "I've done this since I was a kid; I've watched CNBC since I was a kid," which led him to DDD, the "No. 1 worst-rated name" in his index of 1,000 stocks over the last quarter.

Unfortunately, his bear case sounded like it was put together by Jimmy, based on the stock having a "lot of momentum" and apparently some quant issues but not, upon pressing from Karen Finerman, any concrete catalyst.

Steve Grasso said UNH needs more than the 3-day rule with ObamaCare under attack; "wait for a little more clarity."

Mike Khouw said of PCLN, "I think it's a little technically stretched," but still "fairly attractive on a fundamental level."

Khouw's Final Trade was SPY puts. Tim Seymour said TBT, Steve Grasso said LVS in a casino breakout, Karen Finerman said MDY puts, and Guy Adami said HUN.

Joe chippy day after massive taper bust, says Fed overlooked Grand Theft Auto sales

While virtually everyone was surprised by the Fed's inaction on Wednesday, none on Fast Money/Halftime had assured it to quite the level of Joe Terranova, who responded to the startling Fed statement on Thursday's Halftime by mocking the notion of a weak economy and rejecting the stock-market move.

"I don't like a day like yesterday," Terranova said, evidently adopting Lee Cooperman's new narrative that stocks "kinda went up a little bit too quickly," to the point he took a "small short position" in EEM. (Although Joe didn't say anything about how the markets Wednesday "robbed" themselves of future gains.)

"Oil prices are going to force the Fed to taper," Joe predicted. (Just not on Sept. 18.)

Oddly enough, Terranova began his remarks asserting that despite the Fed surprise, his holdings did great, so, "OK, well this is actually good."

Nobody gave him a hard time, about anything, yet short-fused Dr. New World erupted at Josh Brown during typical banter during one of those dreadful bull-bear debates (perhaps being enlisted for this assignment is what really got under Joe's skin), asserting "the cycle of euphoria is clearly present right now in Priceline" and then, after Brown mumbled something about euphoria, declared, "If you're not gonna let me finish, then this is gonna be very difficult for us to manage through," and honestly, when does anyone ever let the other side finish in these conversations?

Brown had little bear case, saying the stock "over and over again continues to prove itself," and of course, "I gotta tell you something."

Joe questioned how PCLN could be doing so well if the Fed believes it's a weak economy and said Europe and the positives are priced in; "tell me something I don't already know."

Mr. New Land contrasted the sales in TTWO with the Fed's decision and concluded, "The 2 just don't equate."

Weiss: ‘Clear sailing’ through the end of the year

Stephen Weiss, rightly seeing this market for what it is, told viewers on Thursday's Halftime Report, "I think you continue to buy ... a lot of people are still underinvested ... it's clear sailing now through the end of the year."

Milton Ezrati echoed that, asserting, "I think stocks still have room to go ... I wouldn't even worry about valuations for another 20%."

Mohamed El-Erian claimed the Fed move was the "3 s's," which we learned are "suprising, shocking and stunning," which all kind of sound like the same thing. He said to look at the front end of yield curves and selling volatility.

Weiss said to think of this like 1999, that risk assets are going up.

Josh Brown pointed out that "the Fed did say they could do an intra-meeting move," while Mr. New Land questioned El-Erian's suggestion of rate-sensitive plays.

Brown likes basic materials and industrials. Stephanie Link said Cramer was "selling some KEY today, buying some Morgan Stanley." Steve Weiss said the Fed was reacting to "overall fears of disinflation."

Judge turned the floor over early to knee-buckling beauty Seema Mody in dazzling chic blue, reporting that real estate and staples got big pops from the Fed.

Joe: Gold’s reaction ‘modest’

Judge Wapner stuck it to Jim Iuorio on Thursday's Halftime about Iuorio's tapering expectations; Iuorio insisted gold's move will be "short-lived," and "I actually think taper talks begins anew."

Stephen Weiss said "certain people should have gold," such as Stan Druckenmiller, because he can ride out of the volatility of it, but "I don't think the average investor has that ability."

Joe Terranova, in the penalty box for his Sept. 18 taper assurances, claimed gold had a "modest" reaction to the Fed, and "I think the range is in for the year."

Anthony Grisanti said he's looking to buy any dip in crude, perhaps the November 105. Todd Gordon said, "Crude is just big-time contained in this summer range." (But John Kilduff predicted 125.)

Joe Terranova rattled off HAL, HOS, OXY and APC, "those are all names that I own." Steph Link called WFT "very interesting."

Weiss: AAPL being ‘sold out’ is not unusual

Josh Brown on Thursday's Halftime Report rejected his June Fast Fire on AAPL, pointing out it did drop below 400 as he predicted. "That was a spot-on call," Brown said, and "I would not be a seller here." (Yeah, but Karen Finerman is, at least she was early this week.)

Joe Terranova, who made an impressive Quicker Than the Ticker reference, groused that with all that cash, "They better have a contingency plan if those orders are really not what the expectations expect."

Steve Weiss rightly observed, "The biggest joke is that they're sold out. They manufacture being sold out."

Stephanie Link said of ORCL, "In the low 30s, I like the stock." Josh Brown called RAD "a turnaround for the ages ... I would actually stick with it."

Weiss suggested that if HLF does a buyback, it could be a "massive squeeze." Josh Brown said XONE is an example of how secondaries can be used by insiders to get out.

Nick Kaiser, without a whole lot of specifics, touted VFC for its value and growth prospects. He also likes DAL, "true value if you ever saw it." And, he apparently likes SWK as well as the tech space.

Josh Brown said of SCHW, "Year over year, it's still pretty strong." Stephanie Link predicted 2014 would be a "great story" in 2014. Joe Terranova said "I like the technical formation" in EBAY. Stephen Weiss said he's not sure TOL can put up the numbers.

Joe Terranova's Final Trade was sell CAT. Stephanie Link said long TXT, Josh Brown said VAW, and Stephen Weiss said THC.

[Wednesday, September 18, 2013]

Judge delivers the scoop —
on Melissa’s show

There's competition among networks to deliver ratings — and competition within the networks to land the scoops.

And so it was notable on Wednesday's Fast Money that Scott Wapner, having presided over an impossibly anticipatory Halftime Report pre-Fed revelations, commandeered the spotlight to report on Lee Cooperman's opinion of Ben Bernanke's non-move.

It's not like he interrupted Melissa's show with Carl-Ackman Part II (wouldn't Mel really like that), but Wapner did enjoy a bit of a score with a Cooperman exclusive — perhaps even enjoying it too much, as he insisted on serving up an extra moment of gratuitous I'm-with-the-99%-not-the-1% everyman declaration from Coop, who conveyed to Wapner that the Fed is employing a "trickle-down" strategy that has mostly just been helping those "on the top, maybe 5%."

The latest I-hate-this-market argument: ‘We are taking away from future returns’

We have no idea the extent of what Lee Cooperman communicated to Judge Wapner, who claimed "we spoke via email," as if that's possible (maybe it is; we haven't seen "Rise of the Machines" as of this writing); maybe they discussed whether the yinz can score 11 points against the Chicago Bears this Sunday, but at any rate, Coop notably expressed 2 things: 1) He thinks stocks are "a little stretched" and "modestly overvalued," and 2) this notion of, "If we keep going up, we are taking away from future returns," and repeated, "You're robbing future gains, uh, that you may get, for, for the gains we see today."

So, let's get this straight:

Everyone should stop and pause before buying Thursday and feel a little guilty about any buy orders that are entered, because if the market goes up, say, 25% by the end of 2014, we should all be saving a little more for the end.

But he didn't say what to do on the sidelines in cash (think Pete last week) if everyone else ignores his advice and buys anyway and "robs" the market of its long-term just deserts.

That strategy, in fact, is what the yinz are likely doing; they don't want to win all their games in September, just the ones in January.

Judge said he also spoke probably more likely communicated with David Tepper, who told him, "The market acted appropriately."

Free tip from the Jeff Macke lexicon: Trade the market you’ve got, not the one you want

It's almost like if you're a bull, they'll toss you out of the union.

Nearly unanimously maintaining their too-cool investment approach, Wednesday's Fast Money crew wasted no time in denouncing the stock market rally.

"No war, no Summers, no taper, no fear," mocked Tim Seymour. "I would be getting long vol."

Guy Adami, who made a fantastic call to 1,725 a day ago (actually, if it's north of, say, 1,730 by week's end, it's really not that fantastic) and predicted a selloff at that point (we're not seeing that, but maybe he'll be right Thursday and Friday), didn't urge selling Wednesday but reaffirmed his short CAT notion; "I think that still is a trade."

Guy Adami at one point cited the "irresponsibility of the Fed" and how it "really sends a bad message" to other central banks.

Mike Khouw said the S&P has been trading "below its long-term average corporate earnings yield" but "that isn't true anymore," and so he thinks the "giddiness ... might start to run out" of the stock market.

Only Dan Nathan acknowledged that Wednesday was a "pretty powerful breakout here," and he thinks you still get long cyclicals, but even that had a bit of an asterisk.

Brian Kelly asserted, "I think gold goes much higher," which Tim Seymour balked at, saying, "The gold trade is very long in the tooth," before the two got into an inflation debate, with Kelly claiming, "We don't have deflation yet, we have disinflation."

Even Tom Lee was compelled to conceal any possible irrational exuberance, saying 3 important revelations were that the Fed might've changed expectations, that it wasn't the bond proxies that were rallying but the more risk-on trades, and it seems as though "people were underweight equities."

Nevertheless, Dan Nathan, apparently anticipating what Lee Cooperman had already told Judge Wapner, asked Lee if we have to fear the "c word" down the road. Tim Seymour said that's not the "c word" he was thinking of.

Jens Nordvig claimed that in the last week, he "spoke" to (or, if he's like Judge, that means he e-mailed them) 30 portfolio managers who were all confident of tapering Sept. 18, and not only that but with the rate forecast, it was a "very, very dovish cocktail." Nordvig said he likes emerging market currencies and likes long sterling vs. yen.

Tim Seymour said long dollar isn't a 1-week or "1-wonth (sic) move," but a 5-year position; "you absolutely buy this weakness."

Nathan: Watch ORCL 30-31

If you thought Wednesday's Fast Money crew was skeptical about the broader market, you shoulda heard 'em talking about homebuilders.

"I would take this as an opportunity to fade this segment," said Tim Seymour.

Mike Khouw said "absolutely" to that, claiming, "You got a reprieve if you're in these things."

Dan Nathan, really the lone bright spot of the day, pointed out ORCL's issues but said that around 30 or 31, it looks like a "good cheap cyclical laggard."

Guy Adami noted "the guidance was pretty lousy" and said he wasn't predicting whether it holds 30, but if it doesn't be careful, because it could head south in a hurry. Tim Seymour said, "I would not be scared of it right here."

Mike Khouw said there was a seller of the FDX January 110/115 strangle, which is a range-bound bet.

Khouw knocked the defensives. "I don't like any of these bond proxies," he said; "utilities I would avoid."

Tim Seymour conceded he was wrong to advise taking emerging markets profits on Friday.

Fast Money crew runs away from Howard Schultz’s subject matter faster than Usain Bolt

They love ripping the rally.

But they apparently don't love sharing their views on America's gun laws.

Wednesday's Fast Money gang, after a strange (to say the least) interview with Howard Schultz in which it appeared as though there was absolutely nothing wrong with the audio, stayed as far away from the subject matter of his interview as fans will be staying from the Heinz Field upper deck seats on Sunday night.

Schultz was trying to explain this head-scratching new store policy which, according to the screen text, is a gun "ban," but which Schultz eventually pointed out, isn't really a ban at all, but a request.

"We are not as a company, pro- or anti-gun," Schultz said, before adding, "We're not banning the gun."

Interview over, Guy Adami changed the subject to another retailer. "Dunkin Brands has been on fire," Adami said, evidently not realizing the dubious pun.

Tim Seymour merely said SBUX is the "most exciting" U.S. multinational. (He probably bought the Paul McCartney Greatest Hits CD last time he was at the register.)

Like Schultz, we're not taking any position on this either, but can't fathom why this is circling around Starbucks and why it would be any different than a McDonald's, Denny's, Burger King, Olive Garden, etc.

Dan Nathan, perhaps in an indirect dig at Karen Finerman, suggested AAPL's tumble on Monday was a little overdone; "it really felt like a liquidation," he said, before adding, "at the end of the day" twice.

Mike Khouw actually called TTWO "fairly reasonably valued" but said not to expect another 60% return.

Guy Adami said that even though being around $1,000 would make some people (like who, we don't know, given AAPL and GOOG are constantly hailed for their north-of-500 valuations) think it's pricey, actually "it's not a crazy, expensive stock ... I hate to say it ... I think you stay with it." (If it's not crazy, why does he hate to say it?)

But Adami warned again not to chase ADBE.

Brian Kelly, in a good analogy, said "buyback" today is like "Web site" of the late 1990s. Tim Seymour said "I'd stay away" from P, and Mike Khouw said it's a "good opportunity to take some profits" in AVB.

Mike Khouw's Final Trade was long DE, short CAT. Tim Seymour mentioned a charity concert. Dan Nathan said to sell GE. Brian Kelly said long gold, and Guy Adami said long NUE.

Joe’s September bust: ‘You will see taper on September 18th’

In essence, he's now in the penalty box. (At the end of the day, that is. Inherently.)

Had he just mentioned once that he expects tapering on Sept. 18 it would not even get a mention, but Joe Terranova's Sept. 6 declaration on the Halftime Report — "You will see taper on September 18th" — followed on Sept. 9, "the Fed is going to taper," managed to leapfrog past (just about, save for Simon's California first-class airfare offer) every loopy comment heard on the Fast Money franchise for the last month as the Biggest Bust of the Summer.

For what it's worth, Simon Baker claimed on Sept. 6 that tapering is "absolutely done."

Worst of all, Pete Najarian and Brian Kelly apparently believed them, hunkering down in either 1) all cash or 2) lowest market position ever in more than a year.

The standouts on the other end regarding this subject — which we really aren't that interested in evaluating anyway — are Mike Khouw, who suggested just a day ago the market might not get the 10-15 billion; Brian Kelly and Guy Adami, who strongly suggested otherwise in late August, and Anthony Scaramucci, and perhaps even Steve Grasso, who was a little iffy.

The Ilchmeister stands tall:
‘Today’s wild-card trade is, there is no tapering’

We're finally done with tapering predictions on Fast Money and the Halftime Report after Wednesday's final go-round, first featuring David Bianco, who expected "10-15 billion" and predicted the S&P 500 would "probably close up 5 points for the day ... I think we make it to 1,800 early next year."

Bill Irving also said 10-15 and asserted, "I think the taper is largely priced in ... I think where we could get a surprise is the strengthening of the forward-rate guidance." Irving predicted "maybe 3 and a quarter tops" for bond yields.

Jim Iuorio bluntly claimed that "anything less than 10 would be viewed as silly by the markets" (um, that didn't exactly happen) but that the 10-year would hit 2.75% in a few weeks.

Rich Ilczyszyn said the 10-year could get to 3.25 or 3.50 but not much higher, then astutely added, "Today's wild-card trade is, there is no tapering, then the rates do pull back." Ilczyszyn advised buying the dips and selling the rips.

Gemma Godfrey, who hasn't been around for a while to flash the world's most perfect teeth opine on how uncertain Europe is, suggested a $10 billion, "some form of tapering," and pointed to risks in Germany even if Angela Merkel wins, as she always does.

The new narrative isn’t 2nd-half story, but A7 chip

Judge Wapner on Wednesday's Halftime Report carried out an impressively lengthy and constructive conversation with Jesse Eisinger (the quality reporter who, whenever he's on Fast Money, finds himself getting a class-warfare barrage from the traders) on why Green Mountain is "obscuring" the number of K-Cups it sells.

In a much more open-ended dialogue than what Herb Greenberg usually provides, Eisinger pointed out that in a recent analyst call, "The CEO said, 'We don't do simple math'," which might be a telling slip, and that the worst-case scenario is that the company might be "kind of stuffing the channel."

Pete Najarian said that a P analyst "thinks the target's a lot higher," and Pete agrees. Stephanie Link called ADBE a buy. Mike Murphy did the same with FIVE, and Josh Brown said if you're long NOK, "stick with it."

Brown opened the show touting PFF. Pete Najarian suggested financials on a pullback, and said homebuilders look interesting.

Stephanie Link touted ORCL on valuation. (Zzzz.) Mike Murphy said it's missed 3 of the last 4 quarters, but, as often happens with this feature, "I think you buy it on a dip under 30."

Josh Brown backed Link, pointing to buybacks.

Pete Najarian hailed the chip sector and ARMH. Pete also said he likes DLTR, which prompted Josh Brown to add, "I think the whole sector looks good."

Steph Link said CAT may be cooked; "I think a lot of good news is in it."

Mike Murphy said of FDX, "I would fade some of this."

Pete Najarian hailed the Najarian Brothers' new AAPL catalyst, the A7 chip, which Pete said "people don't quite understand."

Stephanie Link told Judge at the top of the program that it's "hard to say" if the stock-market rally continues. (So ... why bother with the show?)

Mike Murphy's Final Trade was GE. Pete Najarian said BX, Stephanie Link said PETM and Josh Brown said VAW.

[Tuesday, September 17, 2013]

Jon Hilsenrath asks the panel for Fed questions, gets QE-risk-grumbling from Brian Kelly

Thankfully on Wednesday the taper predictions will be over, and there will be no more episodes like Tuesday's headache-inducing Fast Money.

Guy Adami, to his credit, did manage to bring his A game to this production and made some constructive predictions, although to be honest, we don't agree with the first one, which is that the S&P 500 climbs to 1,725 and then, "I think it sells off from there."

Adami also suggested shorting CAT between 88 and 90.

Karen Finerman explained that trading the Fed ahead of the announcements requires getting 2 things right: What exactly the Fed does, and then, "Am I right gauging the market's reaction to what they do."

"I can't be right on both of those," Finerman said.

Finerman credited the Fed, conceding that she thought years ago that rates were bound to soar, but "one thing they've been right on though is inflation."

Mike Khouw predicted we might actually get "more talk of taper, but we don't actually get the 10-15 billion that I think the Street's expecting," which we'd find surprising.

Jon Hilsenrath said Ben Bernanke is in some kind of pickle that really didn't seem like much of a pickle when Hilsenrath got done explaining it, but he concluded, "The message is, rates stay low for a very long time."

Guest John Netto, who spoke as though he were getting paid by the word, said if tapering is $10-$15 billion then equities sell off, but the key question is "what they're gonna do with the forward-rate guidance."

Netto said the "most bullish scenario possible" is no tapering, and no October press conference, though he didn't really answer Karen Finerman's question about whether they could call a press conference later (this is how extended these silly conversations have become).

Netto defined for everyone the Fed's dual mandate, then said "inherently," as in, something we didn't really absorb is "inherently disinflationary." (Zzzzzzz.)

Well, there was the time Jonathan Vilma pretended to glare at Jeff Macke and say ‘Under Armour’ was the best brand, and Macke pretended to be afraid (#notsogreatmoments...)

The only thing more useless on Tuesday's Fast Money than Jon Hilsenrath asking for help with Fed questions and asking traders what worries them and nobody having an answer was the show's promotion of Mel Lee's upcoming "Rise of the Machines" and gratuitous interview with Paul Jacobs, who (surprise) thinks wearable technology is a much bigger deal than whatever Lee suggested it might be.

Guy Adami said of QCOM, "I still think it's a buy." Jim Lebenthal predicted, "This thing's gonna break through 70 I think like a hot knife through butter." Brian Kelly actually claimed that if QCOM breaks 70, it'll go to 100.

Melissa Lee admitted to the camera (as a viewer, it also feels like she's speaking directly to you, sort of like Mel's Fireside Chats), "I did air quotes."

Guy Adami warned not to chase ADBE; "I'd be really careful here."

Karen actually sinks below ‘inherently’ and air quotes

Karen Finerman on Tuesday's Fast Money sounded like she was making quality pro-GM arguments in another bull-bear debate, starting with the "K2XX platform," but then ... incredibly ... disappoingly ... actually said, "This is not your father's GM anymore."

(Seriously. She's a wealthy investor who at a minimum could hire folks to write her some good lines. We even do it for free around here. That's not to say they're all good.)

However, Brian Kelly practically one-upped that, not with a punch line but with a strange bear thesis about the average car on the road being 11.4 years old and "that's starting to change," which seems more a bull argument than bear, at least depending on what he means by "starting to change" (in other words, if he thinks that number gets higher or stays high — it's already around an all-time high now — then that would be bad for GM, but if there's any kind of mean reversion, that would figure to be good).

Jim Lebenthal pointed out that neither mentioned the electric-car concept. Mike Khouw said GM December 37 calls were hot.

Karen said to "wait" before buying ARO. Guy Adami gave himself a Brag Trade on X and said, "I think there's more run in the space." Jim Lebenthal said there's more in P; "I think you ride it here." Mike Khouw said the latest news in HLF "may be the nail for Bill Ackman," but "I might actually start looking to fade it."

HLF: A long way from zero

We have no doubt that Jeffrey Ubben is a super-smart individual who knows far more about the tech space than we do ... but ... honestly we didn't have the foggiest idea what he was talking about in his interview clips with Kate Kelly on Tuesday's Fast Money, or what the purpose of the interview even was and why it was even aired.

Ubben said something about MSFT choosing between slow change and "rapid change."

Karen Finerman grumbled about MSFT, "I'm bitter in the name, and out."

For whatever reason, Finerman observed, "I was surprised to see that Green Mountain was actually exceptionally good at buying back their own shares."

Guy Adami patted himself on the back for saying "chairperson."

Adami said, "I think FedEx surprises," suggesting a stock price around 115 or 116, "and I smell a Fast Fire."

Actually, we're not sure about that, and have no strong opinion for a prediction. (In other words, it's not like when Pete Najarian goes to his smallest market position ever/in more than a year or when Simon declares "game over.")

Jim Lebenthal predicted that Larry Ellison "definitely front-loaded this quarter" for ORCL, and that prediction sounds dubious.

Mike Khouw's Final Trade was selling November 80 calls in HLF. Brian Kelly said buy UNG. Jim Lebenthal said buy BP. Karen Finerman said sell DIS. Guy Adami said long APA.

Judge needs to get a few more people guessing on the level of tapering

$10 billion, $15 billion, $25 billion, $0, $20 billion, $5 billion, more Treasury, more MBS, less MBS than Treasury, unemployment rate to 6.0%, no unemployment rate, etc. ...

447: Doc claims AAPL has bottomed

The shocker of the day on Tuesday's Halftime Report was Simon doubling down on his first-class airfare to California offer regarding DAL's price Jon Najarian's opinion on AAPL:

"I'll be surprised if the stock is any lower than the lows we saw yesterday," Najarian predicted while touting the speedier chip (that's the new narrative apparently) as the difference-maker.

Judge rightly scoffed that there better be more than a faster chip if we're talking about the stock moving north. Najarian insisted it's a "shockingly faster device."

Dr. New Land, who like Dr. J Najarian can never resist playing the daily-AAPL-price-move game, asserted that Tim Cook must have some "sort of contingency plan" to scoop up a bunch more shares "if there is another leg lower in the stock price."

Judge scoffed that it sounds like AAPL's share growth is now predicated on financial engineering.

Josh Brown said if you look at tech buybacks going back several years, the additional gain in market cap doesn't offset the cash spent; "frankly it just doesn't really work that well." But Brown predicts AAPL will "sell lot of phones."

Regarding MSFT redeclaring a buyback while searching for Steven Ballmer's successor, "I really don't get it."

Jon Najarian opined that candidates for Ballmer's job surely must wish they could be the one making the buyback announcements.

Simon Baker touted TDIV. (More on that below.)

‘They touch mortgage securities tomorrow, the market goes straight down’

Judge Wapner on Tuesday's Halftime felt compelled to unleash a merry-go-round of Pete Axthelm-style forecasts for the Fed meeting tomorrow, starting with Mr. New World, who predicted the jobless target will drop from 6.5% to 6% and give them "at least another 10 months to lengthen the runway," and that it's time to get into financials and industrials and get out of emerging markets and materials.

Josh Brown said it's possible the Fed could up its MBS purchases while reducing Treasurys, but in any case it's a "buy the news event."

Steve Liesman said Brown is wrong about "the mix of the taper ... I don't think they go positive."

Jon Najarian predicted the Fed is "not likely to touch" MBSes, while Joe Terranova asserted, "They touch mortgage securities tomorrow, the market goes straight down."

But Liesman said, "I expect them to touch it."

Jeremy Siegel said he doesn't expect the Fed to lower the unemployment target and that the taper amount will be $10-$15 billion, which will bring "a little disappointment at 2 o'clock," but the "market will accept it."

Paul Richards told Judge, "I think it will be 15, minimum," but until we hear the Ben Bernanke remarks, "I would do nothing."

Meanwhile, Richards noted that "nobody's talking about President Obama's press conference yesterday."

Heather Loomis, who resembles Michelle Meyer and is cute, predicted $10 billion of Treasurys and $5 billion of MBS, and some kind of "relief rally."

The bear in bull-bear debate tells when to buy the stock

Jeff Kilburg on Tuesday's Halftime Report used the term "safe haven trade" for gold again, claiming it got "sidelined" in September as equities rallied but that it should go higher with Larry Summers out.

Anthony Grisanti said it would go higher with tapering of $20-$25 billion, but he sees support on the downside at 1,295 and 1,335 as resistance.

Josh Brown said no tapering would be most bullish for gold, but he's not excited about it, saying it has retraced half of its dead-cat bounce. Kilburg predicted the Fed might do $20 billion, and if so, "equities are not gonna like this."

Simon Baker, watching that first-class California airfare cost soar away from him with DAL's price, turned his attention to an FDX bull case pinned to "global sourcing increase" and ecommerce. Josh Brown scoffed, saying "there's really no reason to own this name," it's just a "giant global growth proxy" and "UPS is a much better buy."

But then, in a head-scratcher that so often marks this generally dreadful feature (it wouldn't be dreadful if there were more serious positions), Brown said if you want to buy it, "I would buy it after they report." Joe Terranova said without a rebound in emerging markets, "it is fully valued," and for management, "it's time to increase the dividend."

Simon doesn’t know
his own Final Trade

Josh Brown on Tuesday's Halftime Report pounded the table for P, calling the reaction to the offering the "most bullish sign you could see," and "I think this company's got years of growth ahead of it."

Simon Baker said ARO popped on a new investment. Josh Brown said there are better places to go than TTWO. Jon Najarian said he likes CAG if it drops more or perhaps even at present level. Joe Terranova said of POT, "I don't like the space right here" but does like BG and DAR.

Dr. New Land, with refreshing honesty, pointed to his SWY call and said "clearly I am wrong." Josh Brown said you can still be long the name, there "appears to be a re-rating of this name."

Joe said the problem with GM's Tesla competitor is that "the battery cost is too high," but regardless, "you still own GM."

Jon Najarian said the LCC-American merger is still happening.

Kate Kelly reported that Bulge Bracket bank leverage is down, which might be making taxpayers happier than the bankers.

Josh Brown's Final Trade was to avoid FDX. Joe Terranova said RKUS and Jon Najarian said SWKS. Simon Baker incredibly recommended "TDIF" (and you know that's what he actually said because Judge made a TGIF joke). Which does not exist.

[Monday, September 16, 2013]

S&P 500 tops 1,700 again: Good thing Brian Kelly went to ‘100% cash’ and Pete went to lowest market exposure ever in more than a year because the options are ‘so short-term’

OK. Moving on.

Karen exits AAPL position;
Guy warns Twitter crowd
not to retaliate

The stock-related headline of the day from Monday's Fast Money was surely Karen Finerman's sudden revelation that she's "entirely out" of AAPL.

"The issue with the smartphone business in general ... frustration with the stock ... it just took too much sort of psychic energy ... throwin' in the towel," Finerman said.

We don't want to take a dig here (you'll see why in the next graf), but what we think is most important is probably one factor Karen didn't mention — that the stock is down 40 bucks in 2 weeks, and this feels for all the world (even for a "value girl") like a momentum trade.

Finerman assured Dan Nathan that the fact she had a gain on her shares is "irrelevant."

But then things got a bit depressing, as Karen, in something of a preemptive strike, announced that on Twitter the reaction tends to be, "You sell Apple, you're ug-" and, without being too square-y, we're not going to finish that word; we're certainly not going to put it in a sentence about Karen's, or for that matter anyone else's, physical appearance, but we are going to fight back visually, the photo above being one of the favorites from the archives, look at that, 10-years-off knee-buckling going on there.

Guy Adami sympathized with Karen and readily agreed, "People are far too emotional about this stock."

But in a shocker, Guy stopped just short of unleashing the show's preeminent cliche, "at the end of the- ... it's just a stock, folks, so don't get nuts," predicting it could see 425 or 430.

Dan Nathan predicted "probably about 10% downside here on a messy quarter or so" but said the stock is a buy "somewhere between 450 and 400 ... I'd much rather own Apple than the S&P 500 right here."

Karen said below 400, she'd probably get back in. Guy Adami though said that if it gets below 400, "it probably overextends into the 365, 370 level."

Larry McDonald notes that
Roger Ferguson is African-American

Karen Finerman probably said on Monday's Fast Money what many are hoping about the Fed; "choose already and be done with it," complaining that she can't really trade around the event because you have to deal not just with the event but the "perception of the event."

Melissa Lee, in the first of 2 head-scratching comments on this subject, said, "Larry Summers as Fed chair — somewhat off the table." (Somewhat? Is he going to try again in 4 years?)

Guest Larry McDonald opined that "The difference between Kohn and Yellen is substantial," and, in a curiosity, explained that Roger Ferguson is "African-American."

McDonald was skeptical of stocks. "A lot of good things are priced into the market," he said, adding that "things that could go wrong are substantial."

For a strategy, he said, "The next 30 days I wanna be long vol ... I'm a buyer of bonds here ... I think Yellen is substantially more dovish."

Melissa Lee actually suggested, "Perhaps Obama has gained some political capital by leaving Summers out of this whole fray." (Withdrawing Larry Summers? That's how one gains political capital?)

Karen Finerman said she was surprised the market didn't sell off more on Barack Obama's bizarre I'm-not-compromising-in-the-budget-battle-as-D.C.-carnage-was-being-tackled speech.

Expert thinks Edward Snowden should’ve been more fully vetted

Dan Nathan on Monday's Fast Money indicated there was no need to be disheartened that the S&P didn't break a record. "I don't think it was a disastrous close," Nathan said.

Guy Adami thinks there might be "another 15 handles" in the S&P from here but the rally is "long in the tooth," while the steel sector looks "still pretty interesting."

Adami also said he likes BX.

In a not-particularly-explosive comment, Karen Finerman said that once JPM is able to "get out of the crosshairs," it "will trade better."

Dan Nathan suggested OUTR (we didn't even know Coinstar had changed its name) might be in a death spiral if 40 isn't support; "I'd probably avoid it."

But Nathan praised P for its effort to "raise money when you can, not when you have to."

Adami, who for some reason has been fascinated by the XHB for about a month, said the time to buy was mid-August, and "now's when you start to be taking profits." Dan Nathan said he'd "much rather own the actual homebuilders" than other housing plays.

Guy Adami said he wouldn't chase PKG but it "augurs well" for FDX, which he made his Final Trade after some kind of GM glitch on the screen.

Dan Nathan said DAL has surged on oil being down, but "I don't think you chase this stock." Karen Finerman cautioned of UA, "I don't think the P.E. has ever been this high." Brian Kelly said of ABX, "I would stay away from these names."

Guest Anthony Roman, opining on the Navy yard massacre, pointed out that Edward Snowden "was perhaps not checked as carefully as he should've been." #seriously

Pendulum swangs; Melissa makes up for Guy’s lapse, says ‘at the end of the day’ in its entirety

Guy Adami on Monday's Fast Money observed the 5th anniversary of Lehman Brothers' fall and noted the regulation surrounding big banks. "The pendulum clearly swang (sic) way too far in '07-'08, right ... I think the pendulum has swung to the other end of the coin." (But obviously not to Coinstar, or OUTR or whatever it is, which Dan Nathan thinks could be in permanent decline.)

Karen Finerman said the 2008 crisis showed "how quickly things can change" in the banking space, how giants can be on top of the world and suddenly in danger of going under.

Guy Adami complained that John Thain complained about the "fragmented" nature of exchanges elsewhere on CNBC Monday, calling that "a bit hypocritical" because Thain had a hand in the current structure but has a "bit of a short memory."

Jon Najarian said Monday's options glitch is a "very good way to get a panic started" but (obligatory cliche that people use to avoid getting in trouble with off-the-cuff reaction such as praising the inability of HFT folks to profit) insisted it's "not good for investor confidence."

Dan Nathan pointed out that during the glitch, "The S&P futures sold off 5 handles," and people went elsewhere to do their hedging.

Karen Finerman, her AAPL angst already behind her, made a brilliant observation that this page has long championed, "I always wonder though, why wouldn't it go up 5 for just the same reason."

Mel Lee rightly questioned, without mentioning the S&P up 9 points, which would've bolstered her argument, whether "at the end of the day, does this matter." Najarian assured, "They need to address these issues ... right now."

Guest Michael Balboni said there are questions about the Navy yard shooting that need to be answered.

Dan Nathan's Final Trade was sell T. Brian Kelly said go to 100% cash to buy puts. Karen Finerman said to buy puts in the midcap space. Guy Adami was listed as touting long GM but said it's really long FDX; "I don't know where the GM thing came from."

Halftime Report preempted

Coverage of the shootings in D.C., as well as President Barack Obama's speech about how Congress is messing up the sequestration and budget, preempted Monday's Halftime Report.

[Friday, September 13, 2013]

Pete corrects ... himself
(for something he never said)

Somewhere in the span of 4 hours Friday, Pete Najarian sifted through his portfolio records and managed to find even less money committed to the market ... in 2012 ... than right now.

Confused? Then you didn't have the pleasure of catching Pete on both the Friday Halftime Report and the Friday Fast Money.

See, at Halftime, Pete said, "When I look at my portfolio — I just went through it yesterday — I have the least amount in the market that I have ever had in the market."

Then on Fast Money, Pete took a moment to explain, "I wanna col- correct some- one thing: I am not bearish on the markets by any stretch. I am just not as involved in the markets from the equity side," and in fact, he is "sitting on more cash than I have sat on in over a year."

So we went from "ever," to in "over a year."

Honestly, we always figured these Fast Money pros had to be rich, don't they have people to look this stuff up for them?

But here's the bizarre part of it. He said he wanted to correct "one thing," which apparently was, "I am not bearish on the market."

Pete never said he was bearish. Nobody on Fast Money said he was bearish. Nobody on the Halftime Report said he was bearish. This page never said he was bearish.

Even more bizarre: Pete stresses that he's not bearish "by any stretch," but it's his lowest market exposure in more than a year.

Which doesn't exactly sound bullish ... by any stretch.

Still even more bizarre: Pete said on Fast Money that this newfound strategy is based on "all the news stories ... I wanna be less involved in the market right now."

All the news stories? Fire at the Boardwalk? Miley Cyrus? RFK Jr. diary?

Yet on Halftime, he stressed that the primary reason he's so cautious is because everything in options is "so short-term" in all the trades he's seeing.

And that's even more puzzling, because wouldn't there actually be less certainty now if all the options trades were March 2014s?

Regardless. "I have been lightening up," Pete said.

Mary Ann Bartels tells the truth and is made to feel uncomfortable

Mary Ann Bartels visited with Friday's Fast Money gang and affirmed a 1,750 year-end S&P target as well as an 1,850 12-month target.

Bartels allowed that she's advising underweight consumer discretionary, but "I'm actually starting to get questions now on EM again."

The best thing she said though was a response to Guy Adami's question of what could derail the market. "I really don't have a good answer," Bartels said rather uncomfortably, and you had to know Melissa Lee would pounce all over that and say "ISN'T THAT THE KIND OF ANSWER THAT SHOULD TROUBLE EVERYONE!!??!?!?!!!!," which is of course what happened.

No, what should be troubling people is watching stock-pickers on television overthinking things and missing the forest of a government-supported stock market(s) while they isolate the trees of "so short term" options and "news stories" into some kind of bizarre all-in-cash or nearly-all-in-cash thesis that they can't even adequately explain on television in 2 tries.

(No, we're not picking on just Pete — he'll knock our block off even faster than those HFT thugs who "come after" Joe on Twitter — but we've had it with this stock-picker's-market/Nick-Colas-3-reasons-to-get-out-for-a-month-then-get-back-in mumbo jumbo when it so obviously, staggeringly, remains a market to be long as much as possible. (And, when it obviously sucks, we'll say that also.))

Bartels wasn't wildly, recklessly bullish, though a better answer would've been something like, "Given how determined governments are to support the financial markets, you can't even expect the surprising foreign meltdowns to be more than a blip."

(By the way, what happened to that derivatives book "somewhere" that must've blown up during the yen's roller-coaster weeks of late May-early June that Guy was so sure about?)

Tim Seymour suggested, like Pete, taking profits now. Steve Grasso said the market has absorbed $15 billion in tapering, but he sold his TSLA, albeit possibly "a little too early." Guy Adami said it does seem a little toppy but he advises staying long XOM and COP.

Adami also said it looks like steel names might have turned the corner.

Tim Seymour said to "stay long on any weakness" in DIS. Guy Adami suggested DAL may be toppy and worthy of profit-taking. Steve Grasso said if you think Syria is dwindling, this is a "good entry point" in VLO. Pete Najarian said there's a "lot of frustration right now" with Apple's lack of a China Mobile announcement.

Pete said he's considering taking some FB off because when a stock surges that much in a short time, you start to feel like it can't really go much higher in the short term. Pete scoffed at using SOCL for social media, calling it one of the "roach motels" of low liquidity.

Fitbit chief James Park discussed his company's products and outlook, and honestly we hardly had a clue what he was talking about. Pete Najarian said, "The competition is pretty fierce out there," and said it could be an appealing space for NKE. Guy Adami suggesed GRMN in the space, with its "nice dividend."

Tim Seymour opined on the Fed: "Larry Summers is the guy for the job."

Pete Najarian's Final Trade was INTC. Tim Seymour said to sell EEM and buy back at 37. Steve Grasso suggested buying the EEM that Seymour advises selling. Guy Adami said TPLM.

‘Bond-related, uh, things’

On a Friday Halftime Report that was out of gas by about the 18-minute mark, Pete Najarian found himself unable to put together even a coherent statement about his favorite 2nd-half story and its 5C phone.

"I think this eventually will be receptive (sic), very, very, very receptive (sic) rather, by the public," Najarian predicted.

Judge would hardly be one to laugh, given his own troubles asking Kathleen Gaffney, who predicts a small tapering next week, what that means for those who "invest in bond-related, uh, things."

Dr. New World, perhaps unduly influenced by HFT thugs who "come after" him for celebrating Greifeld Glitches® that derail HFT profits for an afternoon, decreed Twitter the best stock(-to-be) of the social media space. Stephen Weiss impressed Pete Najarian by saying it's hands-down FB. Joe, however, predicted outflows from FB into Twitter.

Joe said WLP is in the "sweet spot" of health-care plays. Steve Weiss said the JPM compliance-staffing news means nothing and he likes BAC and C the best.

Fish said he likes HFC and PSX but recommends a basket in the refinery space, and also likes CHK, SWN and UPL but stressed that the UNG has that futures contango.

Pete Najarian said he agrees with Jefferies' INTC upgrade on the strength of transition to mobile; "I think it's working."

Joe Terranova, on the other hand, sounded practically offended that Credit Suisse could reverse SWY to outperform from underperform (isn't that what the Colts did from 2011-12?) and advised that he would "take profits here." Joe apparently was spared a Fast Fire on CLF. Steve Weiss said ULTA benefitted from Pete Najarian's business, and Judge said he was watching the boxing match at Pete's place.

In an unbelievably dehydrated, decrepit, de-useless debate on DIS, Stephen Weiss called it a buy because it's "very very shareholder-friendly" (at least he didn't say "very very very receptive"), while Pete Najarian said he's bearish on valuation especially compared with Fox Sports. Mr. New World opined, in a notable overstatement, "Pete makes a great point."

Fish explained to Judge about the new "Logical Institute" he plans to open in 3-6 months to teach youngsters some consumer/financial basics. A great idea, and we mean that. However, a Google search for "Logical Institute" delivered, astonishingly, zero. Nothing on the subject whatsoever.

Mercifully, the show did come to an end. Steve Weiss' Final Trade was to short German bonds. Pete Najarian said buy MU, which Joe Terranova said he'd sell to Pete. Joe said to sell TRIP, and Fish predicted a 95-125 crude range.

Then why are you on the show?

Asked about Twitter's valuation on Friday's Halftime Report, Kevin Landis curiously told Judge Wapner, "It doesn't matter what I think."

Pete looks at account yesterday, finds lowest amount ‘that I have ever had in the market’

Friday's Halftime Report brought back a special guest (no, not Patty, but Fish), but it was Pete Najarian's surprising assessment of his own account that raised eyebrows.

"When I look at my portfolio — I just went through it yesterday — I have the least amount in the market that I have ever had in the market," Najarian said, predicting that tomorrow he'll be, "for the most part completely in cash, with a few positions."

Well, he's already behind Brian Kelly this week, and Doc from December 2012.

Mike Santoli, who has been listening to Simon too much, opined that "it's become this famous stock-picker's-type market."

Mark Fisher concluded that "there's no place else to put money," but what's been a "good" environment to him feels like it's getting "less good," because of "too much uncertainty."

Fish said he's got a "6th sense" that tells him things will be "less good," and, invoking the franchise's preeminent cliche, said that "at the end of the day," it'll be Larry Summers at the Fed, because he's got a "higher GPA score" and "higher SAT score."

Actually, we'll differ with that, as we don't know these people's SAT scores; it's because Summers is someone with stature whereas Yellen is perceived as a bureaucrat.

Fish explained that "gold is like a form of insurance," but regarding crude, said he gets messages accusing him of being a permabull, but pointed out he's been calling a range of 80 to 110, and now, "I think the range is now 95 to 125."

Mr. New Land said, "There's every reason to be in the market right now," and "What has worked will continue to work" (unless it's Netflix, which could be down $50 when Joe wakes up).

Stephen Weiss agreed, "I still think the trend is up."

Najarian thundered that the options plays he sees are "so short term," implying there's not a whole lot of longer-term confidence, but Weiss said that's because "weeklies are the new phenomenon."

More from Friday's Halftime and Fast Money later.

[Thursday, September 12, 2013]

Dan Niles might’ve called the Facebook IPO overvalued, but he also called GLUU a play on people playing smartphone games at airports

Only one panelist on Thursday's Fast Money ventured into an opinion on the real IPO value of Twitter.

That was Jon Najarian, who said, "I think 15 billion in valuation is cheap," and was heard amid the din predicting it's closer to 25 or 22.

Najarian predicted the IPO would be "at least as hot as Facebook was."

Thursday's show, well-handled by Melissa Lee, posed a challenge in that there was significant news to discuss, but with virtually no details. Yet one wonders why they weren't able to round up Porter Bibb, Bill Gurley, etc. (Or, why not Carl, given that he calls in for everything else.)

Anthony Scaramucci predicted that Twitter would not steal investor dollars from FB but from other social media (hmmm ... that would seem to be limited to LNKD, ZNGA, maybe GRPN) and that, "This will be the momentum darling of 2014."

Scaramucci invoked the show's preeminent cliche in noting that Mark Zuckerberg was speaking in hindsight about the FB IPO this week, and "at the end of the day, it seemed like the right decision."

That comment inspired Melissa Lee, who said it's possible that not just Goldman Sachs would be the underwriters, but "everybody on the Street ... at the end of the day."

Dan Niles, one of Fast Money/Halftime's best semi-regular guests, wasn't in peak form this time, first saying he "definitely" would be interested in this offering, then admitting that it depends on valuation and that at a "certain value ... it's not that interesting."

Then he said it's basically the "same analysis" as he did on FB last year, which he found "ridiculously overvalued at 38," something "I obviously said at the time when it came public."

We do in the May 2012 archive (good grief) have Niles on record as cautioning people on the show about the valuation. We have no doubt he did say "ridiculous" at some point in some format.

But when even the greats mention the good, it's important we also note he made the case around the same time for GLUU ... which, um, hasn't exactly had a Facebook-like 2013 and was even mocked by Judge a few months ago.

Niles said investor cash won't dry up for any particular company in favor of Twitter; "it's gonna come out of a wide variety of names."

Mike Khouw praised the legitimacy of Twitter, calling it a "legitimate source of content ... it's become kind of the news wire for a lot of trading desks."

Dan Primack pointed out that nobody knows when this company is actually going public; "We could be in for a long wait."

Yeeeesssssss!
No bull-bear debate

In the non-Twitter portion of Thursday's Fast Money, in which Melissa Lee redefined "obligatory" in granting time to Barbara Marcin and Barney Harford, 2 panelists ganged up on NFLX.

Dan Nathan said, "I think you can fade this one," while Anthony Scaramucci resorted to the old-as-iPhone-carriers-phasing-out-generous-subsidies argument, that being competition from GOOG, AMZN, AAPL in the space (but he didn't actually say "Hulu"), "negative cash flow," and "I think it's very scary ... feels like a heavy stock here."

Nathan chimed in to say NFLX short interest is at 5-year lows. Scaramucci advised, "Buy Facebook and sell Netflix."

Karen Finerman, who unfortunately didn't get much airtime despite donning that striking Rene-Russo-in-The-Thomas-Crown-Affair dress, said she's kind of calling it quits with CVS. Jon Najarian said shippers are rolling over; "I think the trend is now broken."

But Najarian gushed praise for CIEN and FNSR, saying he thinks that trend continues.

Dan Nathan said he now likes QCOM, which he said is going to be in "all ends of the smartphone market."

Barbara Marcin likes AAPL and said interested investors got "another buying opportunity this week." Marcin insisted to a skeptical Melissa Lee that a wow product is on the way; "that's gonna come over the next year or so ... possibly something wearable."

OWW chief Barney Harford, who surely had no idea when booking this appointment that it would occur minutes after a Twitter IPO revelation, told Lee, "Our main focus is on the hotel part of the business." Jon Najarian said, "I like his stock; I really like TripAdvisor."

Mike Khouw's Final Trade was FCX calls. Dan Nathan said to short GM. Anthony Scaramucci said FB. Karen Finerman said SPY puts. Jon Najarian said buy ARRS.

It’s not just the China-data debates that Judge could describe that way

3 of the 4 panelists on Thursday's Halftime Report see the stock market as a buy, with Brian Kelly being the lone "100% in cash" holdout.

The "risk/reward just isn't there anymore," Kelly said.

Mike Murphy said, "I think you stick with this rally here," and Stephen Weiss even said, "I like the market," and "I bought Qualcomm back ... I still like the banks," as well as AIG, ETN and GT.

Jon Najarian sees a stronger market into year-end; "I think we're going to see a very light taper."

Guest Kate Moore told the panel she wants to own emerging markets, but got on the wrong side of Stephen Weiss, who demanded to know how Moore can think that 9 times is cheap in China.

"9 times is cheap relative to the rest of the market," Moore said, as someone else suggested that China's debt problem is no worse than America's, which prompted a frustrated Judge to move on and declare the debate over whether China numbers are real to be "tired" and "old."

Back to the daily-outguessing-the-market-on-AAPL feature

Jon Najarian, in a rambling defense of AAPL on Thursday's Halftime Report, started off with a hardware/software thing and finally got to the NTT DoCoMo thing, which he called a "big deal ... I can't see a reason to not buy the stock at these levels."

Stephen Weiss took issue with Najarian's claim that AAPL is able to woo back people who try Samsung or some form of Android, saying the stats don't agree. Weiss conceded he owns some "very cheap Apple calls" but said it's not the same story it used to be.

Judge impressively asked the panel a good question, whether AAPL sees 600 before 400, and got tepid responses suggesting 600.

Jon Najarian advised people to ride the momentum in FB and said 46 calls were active. Mike Murphy said at 45, "I think you're gonna see a lot of stock for sale." But Stephen Weiss reaffirmed that he's long and said he thinks the stock goes through 50.

Mike Murphy said people are grasping at P in an effort to find the "next Netflix" or "next Tesla," and "I would sell this position here."

Stephen Weiss a couple times said he was back into QCOM and that the company is shareholder-friendly. Jon Najarian said he's "willing to get long" LULU at the lows of the day (generally speaking, not a bad strategy if you can accomplish it) and said, "I believe that this is a takeout candidate," particularly for NKE.

Find the winners.
Avoid the losers.

Peter Dixon, an investor in retail stocks, had perhaps the line of the day on Thursday's Halftime Report (Steve Weiss actually had the funniest line of the day, below), explaining that the key to successful investing is, "You gotta find the winners, and avoid the losers."

Hard to argue with that one.

"You just have to be selective" in the sector, Dixon said, revealing he's not in department stores or teen retailers. But he likes (or, as he put it, they're "in the list of holdings") HD, LOW, TJX, AZO and ORLY and also H&M, though we're not sure how you invest in that one.

Dixon wouldn't opine as to whether NKE might buy LULU but responded to Judge's question with his own question, wondering of Lulu's logo, "How big could it be."

Mike Murphy said "I would wait" to buy LEN. Brian Kelly would "much rather be long oil" than VLO. Stephen Weiss bashed CLF and reminded everyone he doesn't like coal or iron ore (what was Judge saying about "tired, old"?). Jon Najarian said he'd "stay away" from MW.

Anthony Grisanti asserted that somehow tapering is priced into stocks but not the gold market. Jim Iuorio disagreed; "I think the taper's factored in, I think this is more Syria." Iuorio predicted that for gold holders, there would be a "better level to sell it" but that it hits the "low 1300s eventually."

GM exec Dan Ammann told Phil LeBeau that General Motors makes the kind of large SUVs that customers want.

Mike Murphy said he's long F but it's "such a crowded trade," so he suggested something like GT. Stephen Weiss agreed that F "is very crowded." Jon Najarian said he likes CMI, JCI, DLPH and BWA better than all but F.

Mike Murphy said, "You have to love United Health," because his premiums went up for the same service, and he thinks it could reach 100. Stephen Weiss cracked that Murphy's premiums got higher because of the "psych component," and while we need to stress that such treatment is no joke and no one should be stigmatized, that line happened to be funny. Weiss said he had the stock but "sold it too soon."

Judge then asked Jane Wells to "save us please," except Jane's mike initially was off and so she was in Shields & Yarnell mode before revealing that corn-yield estimates are up and soybean-yield estimates are down.

Jon Najarian addressed the secret SEC meeting and said the Goldman Sachs glitch was an "even bigger deal" than the recent Nasdaq problems, but that it's the phony orders that are monopolizing the system, and "the SEC should do something about it."

Herb Greenberg (we thought he couldn't wait to get away to San Diego) told the gang that the share sales of the CEO of MELI are raising doubts about that stock because "he is a good seller" and his sales have "always been just well-timed." Someone questioned how that could be the case given that the stock's at an all-time high; Herb said it tends to go down after he does it and then back up.

Jon Najarian's Final Trade was INVN. Mike Murphy said LULU, Stephen Weiss said short ANR, and Brian Kelly said ... lessee ... JJG ANDE SPY puts TLT (bingo).

[Wednesday, September 11, 2013]

  

Marissa’s hand signals — The hair flip (a/k/a is this Exhibit A for why it’s tougher for women to succeed in business)

During the choppy and awkward Marissa Mayer TechCrunch interview shown on Wednesday's Fast Money, we happened to notice something.

Twice when Michael Arrington was making comments about Mayer's appearance, Marissa resorted to some kind of tic of flipping her hair over her ear.

We think that's a CEO's way of blushing.

Whether she was blushing out of modesty, or regretting the extreme informality of this particular interview format, we don't know.

Arrington actually asked several great questions and nailed a minor stumble, when Mayer announced 4 things and really only mentioned 3, though she said the last one (traffic and revenue) that she ran together was actually 2 things. But he wasted key minutes on drivel.

OK ... (this observation is potentially really gonna get us in trouble) ... but after Mayer's interview was over, instead of giggling an apology, wouldn't it have been worthwhile for Melissa Lee and Karen Finerman and Renée Haugerud to address the banter of the Mayer interview and opine as to whether the dialogue would've been the same with a male?

It's hard to say that Mayer wasn't asking for it, given that the Vogue photo referenced by Arrington was provocative enough for women to debate in August.

And, an autograph request is probably not out of the question for Zuck or Reed Hastings either.

Honestly, in our opinion, this wasn't offensive, just kind of silly.

But Gloria Steinem might say this is a person being rated on her beauty and not her brains.

We have no clue — about anything — so that's why we ask.

Mayer looked into the floor and mumbled when telling Arrington the backstory of the Vogue shoot, so clearly there are some mixed emotions here.

It's certainly worth wondering whether the Vogue shoot is a "do" or "don't" in Finerman's Rules.

We also wonder about the TechCrunch crowd's loudest cheers of the interview occurring after Arrington's use of the f-word ... have they never heard profanity before? Or are they really that bothered by the Yahoo! logo?

Marissa said it'll probably take "3 or more" years for Yahoo to "really get the company going in the direction that we want it to."

Seriously?? Yahoo might be going in the wrong direction for 3 years?

Mayer also credited Jerry Yang for the Alibaba thing, whereas we were under the impression Terry Semel was the one who sealed the current deal. #researchthatsomemoreyeahright

Anyway, Dan Nathan said "Yahoo is doing nothing good in mobile" and stressed not investing in something just because of the word "mobile."

However, Nathan later in the program claimed, "You could see this stock break out."

Steve Grasso agreed; "she's so damn likable, I think people make a bet on her." (See, this is what we're talking about at the beginning of this item.) Grasso said, "I think the stock actually breaks out going into Alibaba."

Eric Jackson also is bullish. "There could be another 10 to even 15 bucks left in the stock," he said, because Alibaba could be "even bigger than people expect," and Asian transactions might be tax-free (well, she is a big Obama supporter).

Without realizing it, Karen implies that AAPL has strong incentive to tank its own stock

Dan Nathan, the only panelist on Wednesday's Fast Money who impressively viewed the session as more than filler, chided Apple management, asserting, "They let the rumors get out of hand," and predicting, "There probably is some more downside."

Steve Grasso, in a strangely snide quip, said "kudos to Guy Adami," whose guess of a 465 AAPL bounce was evidently closer than Grasso's 461.

Karen Finerman said she wasn't scooping up AAPL on the dip and protested that the "stock is often very unrelated to fundamentals," but admitted she "wasn't overwhelmed" by the product presentation.

However, Finerman took issue with Dan Nathan, arguing that management's focus shouldn't be on the buzz and rumors.

Finerman also told Nathan, in the most intriguing remark of the conversation, that Apple is the biggest buyer of AAPL, so it wouldn't shock her at all "if they're loading the boat right here."

Meanwhile, Eric Jackson, like Nick Colas (how come he's not back on for a 3rd time to trumpet his market-pullback-in-August-September greatness based on 3 factors), tried calling a bearish pocket in the market for the next 10-14 days, those being "the ones that you have to worry the most about" if you're long the tech wonder kids of 2013, but ultimately, "all of these winners will continue to run," Jackson said.

Jackson said GRPN in particular "could have a lot more upside," perhaps through 20. But he suggested Yelp and Zillow are ones to think about taking profits.

NFLX actually got downgraded
on valuation

Steve Grasso on Wednesday's Fast Money pointed to the market's monsters of the last couple of weeks, coal and steel, and argued, "I think you should be selling those right now."

Panel newcomer Renée Haugerud, however, suggested those sectors have a "little ways to go." (This writer is long AKS.)

Dan Nathan, somehow the most bullish of the crew, said we're "obviously speaking to a risk-on environment." But Haugerud insisted it's "multiple expansion more than earnings," that gold will come down, and we're in an "overvalued zone on the technical basis" as the S&P "looks toppish."

Steve Grasso predicted a breakthrough in fertilizer and said he is long POT. Dan Nathan said P-demise rumors have been around a while but the stock is working and it "probably has some legs."

Mike Khouw said NFLX got a downgrade, and then Khouw got preempted by Marissa Mayer.

Karen Finerman said she likes GNC, and then actually claimed, "I'm in Joseph Banks (sic)," while predicting it would be hit by MW's troubles. (Those things, like the mattress makers, go up or down $5 about every 6 weeks.)

Renée Haugerud, who apparently doesn't pick single stocks (great for a Fast Money panelist), said, "We think that we're bottoming in coffee," which became her "Final Trade."

Tom Flexner, given the bum's rush by Melissa Lee, said in real estate, it will be "impossible to avoid some slowdown if rates rise," and that he likes the REITS "with the best management teams in the best markets with the best assets." He said in New York that would be BXP, VNO and SLG.

Dan Nathan's Final Trade was GE (isn't it worried about a Dow dumping according to Mr. New World?). Karen Finerman said BAC (that one already got the Dow dumping), and Steve Grasso said to trim positions.

Fast Money airs ‘F’ word

No one apparently told the TechCrunch folks that they were on live TV.

In a live airing during Wednesday's Fast Money, some guy who thinks he's a mighty cool moderator first asked Marissa Mayer for her autograph, then asked, "What the f--- happened here" regarding the Yahoo logo.

Mayer, likely instantly regretting this loopy invitation, chose not to use profanity herself, but stammered matter-of-factly through a clumsy defense of how the company wants to think of itself as a (bleeping) startup.

Mel Lee laughed and said "we apologize for" the colorful language.

Steve Weiss implies he’s going to make a 300% return this year

Joe Terranova, famed for predicting June's "30 days of frustration," told Judge Wapner on Wednesday's Halftime Report that "we're having an excellent September," and at least regarding energy, "I fully view yesterday as a buying opportunity."

Stephen Weiss decided to rain Brag Trades on his unfortunate colleagues, first chiding Judge, "Not everybody thought September would be a bad month," saying he's out of JCP and that in China despite the data, things have "actually gotten worse."

Wapner questioned, "so what" about that in China, look what the stocks are doing. Weiss boasted he's made 6% in trades, which comes out to "300% annualized."

Pete Najarian said there's strength across the board. Jon Najarian pointed to shipping companies, "I think you still buy 'em," and also casinos.

Alec Young warned that Syria isn't over; "the only way a military strike is off the table is if you get cooperation, timely cooperation, from Assad and Putin," failing to point out that a military strike is off the table because the American public doesn't want it. But Young said, longer term, "We still think this market's going to 1,780."

Paul Richards acknowledged that "people are chasing risk," but "at the end of the day," he sees the Fed chief choice as a "binary event" and he hung a 2.85% on Yellen and 3.25% on Summers, the latter prompting a 4-5% October correction, Richards asserted.

Weiss: ‘Nothing good’
in the AAPL presentation

Katy Huberty, who doesn't do TV very often (Judge likes to cite his accomplishments in landing tough gets), played contrarian on Wednesday's Halftime Report, regarding AAPL.

"I think the Street is missing the big picture, which is the financial impact of this product cycle," Huberty said, pointing to EPS estimates moving higher and adding, "in 6 months time, I think we'll see more aggressive pricing out of Apple."

Huberty cut off Stephen Weiss before he could finish his question about the date of some survey of pricing and with/without China Mobile, and then Judge let Huberty go and let the matter drop.

Weiss scoffed at the big Apple events this week, saying the best thing was the stolen-phone feature. "There was nothing good about the presentation," he said. "I still think it's a sell here."

Joe Terranova placed AAPL in the "same spot gold's in" and called it a "trading vehicle." But he said he couldn't see it getting much higher than 525 or 530 and that money managers who can choose FB or AAPL are going to choose FB.

What we can't figure out is why Joe and Anthony warned last week that NFLX with its high multiple could be down $50 in a day, yet neither said anything about low-P.E. AAPL maybe doing the same thing, and ... lookie here... 3 days later AAPL, not NFLX, is the one down practically $40.

But whatever.

Pete Najarian, whose 520 "before you can blink" call was a bust, said it all comes down to China Mobile, "that puts the stock at 550 at least."

Ticker symobls that should
exist (cont’d): BRA

Superfox Seema Mody (sorry, no time for a picture today) delivered a report on SBUX on Wednesday's Halftime Report. Pete Najarian said there's a "lot more upside left" in the stock, and Joe Terranova said he owns it. Jon Najarian explained that he took profits at 73.

Mr. New Land predicted that the long trade in HLF "is probably ending," but "the pressure's on the bears."

Stephen Weiss said Mason Hawkins' Southeastern is OK but might not've actually made any money on DELL, and ripped Judge's "mismatched outfit."

Jon Najarian said of GM, "I think the stock is still a buy."

Najarian said he'd buy HD. Stephen Weiss claimed he bought RAD at 1.50 and sold at 1.56 (that's a backdoor Brag Trade) and look at it now; "I hold it here" was his advice.

Pete Najarian said "I'd hold off for now" in BIDU. Joe Terranova credited Jon Najarian for advocating long IBM at 180.

Weiss said that after M's stumble, "I like it even more at this point," and predicted "well into the 50s" in 6 months. Jon Najarian said he likes TJX and M. Joe Terranova said, "The trade for me right now is Limited (sic) Brands."

Jamie Foxx sidesteps question from Mary Thompson on whether he invests in stocks

Joe Terranova, almost with the glee of a kid on Christmas Day, revealed on Wednesday's Halftime Report that he put in a bid for the 5-year VZ bond that's "190 basis points above the Treasury." Terranova, who hasn't uncorked an "in essence" for a long time, called it an "awesome deal" but revealed, "don't know if I'm filled."

Jim Iuorio, without mentioning John Kilduff's 125 prediction, said crude "could go down another 2 or 3 bucks from here," but he finds it "disconcerting" that it didn't go down more after Barack Obama's speech.

Jeff Kilburg said 103.50 is key support, and below that, look for 98.66.

Pete Najarian argued that LULU is very much like Under Armour and a buy. Jon Najarian argued that GPS has done better and that valuation is the bear case and that you can get it at 65.

Pete said it's the same forward multiple as UA.

Stephen Weiss called it "just an expensive stock ... I think you gotta wait." Mr. New Land said he backed "Najarian" and asserted that "Under Armour's goin' a lot higher."

Jamie Foxx was the lucky beneficiary of the Sister Golden Hair treatment, at the Cantor Fitzgerald event, and said his Mike Tyson voice raises the most money, and that after speaking with Harry Belafonte, he invests for "humanity."

Joe Terranova said "I like Marriott" and said money will shift out of HOT. Jon Najarian likes PM, and Pete Najarian likes RH.

Pete's Final Trade was VALE. Steve Weiss said SODA, Joe Terranova said MS and Jon Najarian said AMAT.

[Tuesday, September 10, 2013]

Brian Kelly goes 100% cash

Trying to time the market with no real convincing evidence, Guy Adami said on Tuesday's Fast Money that he thinks the S&P can go "sideways to lower" for the rest of the week.

Anthony Scaramucci, invoking his new favorite term, twice referred to "lax" monetary policy.

Steve Grasso called the EEM "oversold" and thinks it gets "maybe to 44."

Guest Adrian Mowat said you can play China long right now, "as long as you're willing to be reasonably nimble," but remember it's only a trade. And, "You don't short India," Mowat advised.

The most curious call of the program came from Brian Kelly, who revealed, "I sold all my equity exposure today" and went to "100% cash."

Guy Adami insists show isn’t trying to stick it to pro-AAPL folks

Peter Misek on Tuesday's Fast Money didn't try to conceal his feelings about the price point of Apple's 5C for Chinese and Indians.

"It's just too expensive," Misek said. "We were very, very disappointed."

Misek predicted that Street estimates are too high and that they will have to come down to his own level, "20% below the Street."

Guy Adami noted that viewers are sensitive to AAPL discussions but said he thinks the stock may test the 465 level. Steve Grasso, who evidently doesn't fear the email/tweets, complained, "There's still no new product launch." Anthony Scaramucci made a bullish argument, saying "The trade-in program is gonna be hugely valuable to Apple."

Adami also predicted backpedaling in NFLX shares. "Now you're at the frothy level," Adami said, claiming the stock got "a little bit ahead of itself" and has a "classic potential for double-top." So, "take profits," he said.

Anthony Scaramucci referenced his bearish NFLX warning last week and admitted, "5 more points, I'm gonna get Fast-Fired on this thing," but not as badly as Dr. New Land and his fear of waking up and finding it down 50 bucks.

We think it’s more commonly known as the ‘cover jinx’

Tuesday's 5 p.m. Fast Money crew, like the Halftime folks earlier, tackled the Dow changes, with Guy Adami opining that AA "sort of looks interesting" as a long, and V (as well as MA) should be held, but he'd be interested in HPQ on the short side.

Brian Kelly said not only would he sell Visa, "I think you fade the Nike move here."

In what seems a bit of a reach, Anthony Scaramucci said the concern is that the newly added companies, while realizing a tremendous achievement, may suffer "the Sports Illustrated effect," or "some complacency culturally." (Lessee, how would that work ... "Hey man, did you hear we're in the Dow now?" "Yeah, dude, I'm takin' the afternoon off.")

Rich Moroney observed that the changes boost the Dow's offerings of financials and tech and that the administrators have been really struggling how to incorporate AAPL and/or GOOG.

Grasso: Grab URBN at 36

Guy Adami on Tuesday's Fast Money made a bull case for LULU arguing that "all the bad news has now been priced into the stock," and he could see an 80 handle.

Brian Kelly first said, "It's the Christine Day resignation," then went on to competition issues as to why he's negative.

Steve Grasso said it "has to hold 70" but then admitted he'd "rather be a buyer of Nike."

Brian Stutland suggested that the options market is overplaying the extent of the LULU earnings move, and "I think they're in good shape."

Steve Grasso called URBN a good buy in the $36 range and said to wait on it. Guy Adami said he thinks you can get long GMCR at 81.50 or 82.

James Gorman enjoyed one of the greatest gifts a person can get — Mary Thompson asking you a lot of questions — and told Sister Golden Hair that another 2008-style crisis is unlikely, and that the retail investor is not overcooked. Anthony Scaramucci, who earlier called the stock a "strong buy," said Gorman and his team deserve huge credit for the Smith Barney transaction and that, of the Bulge Bracket, "they're the No. 1 pick."

Irwin Simon evidently thought he could use a positive recommendation so he visited the Nasdaq again between 5 and 6 p.m. Eastern time, when the crowd tends to be favorable to HAIN. Simon said there's nothing wrong with Carl Icahn ringing the register. "I'd be a buyer," said Steve Grasso.

Brian Kelly's Final Trade was S&P puts. Steve Grasso said long CREE, Anthony Scaramucci said SNDK and Guy Adami said NUE.

What they could’ve said about the Dow: Just makin’ it up as we go along

Given that it's a TV program dealing with momentum trades, what could be more fitting for Tuesday's Halftime Report than to discuss the biggest momentum trade of all?

The Dow Jones industrial average.

Mr. New Land got things going with a dubious point, saying GE and INTC "obviously have to be concerned right now."

Concerned about what? Being dropped? What difference would that make?

(As if a Dow legacy such as GE is going to get dropped.)

Nevertheless, Terranova opined, "I think it's a great move."

Stephen Weiss scoffed that in removing AA, the Dow is "only 10 years late." Weiss interestingly said that Goldman Sachs and the Nasdaq composite have shown "very little divergence" over time.

But he called it "ludicrous" to let Dow administrators "dictate" people's portfolios.

Mike Murphy suggested that names can move after they're taken out (see, that's the momentum trade thing we're getting at, that the Dow sells at the bottom and buys at the top), such as AA in this case, but he did praise the changes for making the index "a little more relevant."

See, that's just the problem: "A little more relevant" ... for what?

If it's supposed to represent the general direction of stocks, why doesn't it just use the 30 biggest market caps?

Liz Ann Sonders, who is and always has been extremely let's take a moment to emphasize that a bit ... ex ... treeeeeeeem .... ly good-looking, offered another suggestion, that the new names are "probably more reflective of the economy."

Seriously? Then where are the airlines? Don't people fly? What happened to the automakers? How is American Express' success more "reflective" than Target?

No one pointed out that chasing this index over time is a fool's game, because it constantly moves the goal posts in its favor. It's as if the Patriots could cut their wide receivers and add Calvin Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald when they decide they need an upgrade at the position.

Jon Najarian, in another interesting point that we think is overstated, predicted there will be some "real alpha" in the ETFs that are levered to the average; those are "gonna be much more interesting."

Stephen Weiss said the index made a move for "excitement and growth."

Mike Murphy said that no matter what the Dow's doing, he prefers BAC to GS at this point. Joe Terranova said he's staying with GS and said that while Visa makes sense based on this goofy nominal share-price formula, MA is better; "I like Mastercard over Visa."

Sonders said she thinks stocks may be choppy for a little while. "In the near term you may still want to keep your, your cards close to the vest," Sonders said.

Questions Tim Cook didn’t get asked at the Senate hearing — Joe vents at analyst

Steve Milunovich told Tuesday's Halftime Report that the key for AAPL is "what happens to earnings estimates," and whoop de do.

But things instantly got chippier when Dr. New World vented a long-held frustration about the tanking of AAPL.

"This time last year it was supply disruptions that cost me personally and a lot of folks out there that were long Apple a significant amount of money," Joe said, demanding Milunovich explain if any such disruptions are on the horizon at present time.

Rather than question why Joe (and many others) were constantly trying to time this stock last year and much of this year (as if that's possible with a company of this magnitude), Milunovich acknowledged Joe's point but concluded, "I doubt they'll say a lot about that today," the understatement of the day.

Stephen Weiss predicted the response to these announcements that we've been sick of hearing about for days would be ... minimal. "I think it's gonna be another yawn," Weiss said, while Judge bristled that the shares haven't been yawning recently.

Mike Murphy said "the stock could rally," and then, in the most dubious comment on the subject, actually claimed, "I don't think there's much downside."

Jon Najarian said he'll be looking to see if there's a deal with NTT DoCoMo, because that's a "higher-end phone buyer than the 5C's would be in China."

Dr. New World retained his sense of humor by the end of the discussion, uncorking the best line of the day in suggesting that AAPL should split 4-for-1 to get into the Dow.

How a surprising vote in Britain ruined an important guy’s summer

Jim Iuorio, taking up the subject of gold, said on Tuesday's Halftime Report that the negotiations involving Syria appear to have taken the notion of a strike "off the table."

Jeff Kilburg on the other hand suggested, "I don't know if the Syrian situation is gonna fade away," and then insisted, "there's gonna be a reason to own gold as a safe haven."

It was particularly noteworthy that the narrative for the last couple of days has been that the "credible threat of U.S. military action" (as poll after poll shows the public won't have it) has brought Assad to the negotiating table, when the obvious truth is that (we're giving the benefit of the doubt here) the administration probably thought it was the right thing to do and figured this would be a good little payback for that Edward Snowden thing, not realizing Great Britain was going to vote it down and that the American public wouldn't support it. So somewhere in the process we've made Russia an offer, cloaked by an "offhand" comment of John Kerry, and the Russians are interested. And so here we are.

Meanwhile, Kate Kelly reported that JPMorgan's Blythe Masters, "44" per Kelly (but she doesn't look it), has been under fire for years for power deals. Stephen Weiss said this is probably a good time to dump the commodity interests. (And Gasparino is still re-reading that Goldman Sachs aluminum storage story and wondering what's going on.)

Morgan Stanley's pharma watcher David Risinger told the gang he likes MYL and ACT, as well as ABBV and PFE.

Jon Najarian tried to elicit an opinion on VVUS, but Risinger said that's not in his sphere. Risinger said if PFE can make greater progress in early-stage breast cancer, that would be a big boost.

Joe Terranova revealed, "This is an unpopular call but I actually shorted XBI today." Mike Murphy said he likes AMGN, Steve Weiss said he likes GILD, and Jon Najarian said his favorite in the space is MRK.

Joe: Long PANW with 44.67 stop

Joe Terranova issued a couple-days-from-now buy call on URBN on Tuesday's Fast Money; "I'm actually gonna buy this name."

Mike Murphy said that at Monday's levels in PVH, "this guidance will not support the stock."

Jon Najarian said he thinks FIO has room to pull back before going much higher. Najarian said of his FL Fast Fire, "I've liked it all year," but he'll sell it when it gets back to 38.

Stephen Weiss said he owns MOS and not POT, but he still thinks those names will "skyrocket" with a cartel deal.

Weiss argued bullishly for TGT, saying Street estimates/expectations have come down. But Mike Murphy took issue with Weiss' emphasis on northern expansion; "they're not producing up in Canada," he said, arguing it's fighting both WMT and AMZN.

Jon Najarian backed Weiss, saying "I also like Target."

Joe Terranova said he likes JOY more than CAT. Mike Murphy said MSFT should hire a turnaround specialist.

Mike Murphy said he's not buying WY at these levels. His Final Trade was GNW.

Jon Najarian predicted ATVI and EA would move higher, and CAM was his Final Trade.

Steve Weiss is not interested in MPC, but is interested in TBF, his Final Trade.

Joe Terranova said he likes PANW and made it his Final Trade, being long against its Monday low.

Instant bust: John Kilduff
on Aug. 27 calls 125 crude

This flop was one we were glad to see — for rationality's sake.

Just a couple weeks ago, John Kilduff opined on Fast Money that 125 crude was not only possible, but "I think it's heading there."

If it is, it's taking its time.

A couple days later, John Woods said the Syria operation would be over in 10 days.

Instant bust II: Joe, Anthony
warn of 1-day $50 plunge in NFLX

It was just on Friday that Dr. New Land made a bear case for NFLX and revealed he sold his own shares a day earlier because Carl just sold some HAIN, and Joe didn't want to wake up and find NFLX down $50.

But when he wakes up Wednesday morning, he'll find it up 7.6% in just 2 days, after Carl specifically told Judge Wapner a day ago he hasn't sold any of it.

Meanwhile, Jon Najarian on Tuesday's Halftime predicted another 10-15% upside from Tuesday's levels.

This page keeps saying it, but not everyone believes it: We can think of a lot better things to do with your account in 2013 than selling 4-letter ticker symbols.

More from Tuesday's Halftime and Fast Money later.

[Monday, September 9, 2013]

Raise your hand if you can actually name the Olympics that Calgary hosted

Dennis Gartman, apparently having conducted his own unscientific survey, said on Monday's Fast Money that, with the exception of Calgary, "anybody who has held an Olympics in the past 40 years has regretted the fact that they've done it."

Whatever Calgary did to accomplish this permanent feel-good situation, Gartman opted not to share.

Actually we don't think that's true of Atlanta, Beijing, or even London, but we're not about to spend time investigating. The biggest problems have been in Athens and the smaller locales picked for the Winter Games who are supposed to build $3 billion worth of onetime bobsled tracks.

Anyway, Gartman reaffirmed his long-term yen thesis; "I still wanna be long the Nikkei."

JC Parets explained that for stocks, "I actually don't like the United States," but rather emerging markets.

Karen Finerman, hoping producers won't have a chance to play Al Stewart, said she still thinks this won't be the year of the CAT and is "still short," but is "getting a little bit more nervous" about that. Guy Adami said CAT has been resilient around 80, but "each bounce has been shallower than the last bounce." Mike Khouw's Final Trade was long DE, possibly against a CAT short.

Finerman joked that surging NM is experiencing a "flight to drybulk," but given the run, "I think I like NNA better."

It’s conceded: Tails wag the dogs in the analyst community

Peter Misek, in an impressively concise report, told Monday's Fast Money that he expects from Apple 2 new phones, China Mobile and DoCoMo.

"For us, it's a sell-the-news-kind-of event," Misek said.

Misek observed what is not much of a secret about price targets: "Unfortunately Wall Street kind of follows, uh, what the stock is doing," and here we thought it was supposed to be the other way around. As for AAPL downside, he said, "The stock could retest 450," and asserted that there are still "2 major issues" with the phones, one being that $400 is not a low price, and the other (of course), screen size.

Guy Adami said FIVE has a "ridiculous valuation" but an "equally ridiculous short interest."

Mike Khouw grumbled that if you held EXPE through that 20% debacle, then Monday's gain is barely a "big deal," but he thinks the stock "might actually be interesting here."

JC Parets griped that he can't get behind TSLA because, "Where do you put your stop-loss."

Karen Finerman knocked Jon Fortt's clips of the goofy PayPal boss explaining how great it would be if store clerks called you by name and asked if you want the usual. "Isn't this exactly the feature that Square offered?" said Finerman, who famously like Josh Brown was really into Verifone for a while before that got less sexy.

Melissa Lee, who had a hot gray dress, scoffed at the concept. "You walk into a store, clearly you don't know anybody there, and all of a sudden they say, 'Hey Melissa, how are you, you want the usual'," Lee grimaced.

If only Guy had taken a couple more moments to recommend Amphenol

Guy Adami said at the top of Monday's Fast Money that he could actually see the S&P 500 pulling back after its gain Monday, and pointing to the Molex deal, suggested (for the first time) that APH is worth a look.

Adami said there's nothing wrong with taking recent profit in XHB. Mike Khouw addressed HOV's day and pointed out, "These guys are sensitive to rising rates," so he'd avoid.

Khouw indicated Europe is appealing.

Karen Finerman thinks housing transactions will be fine, and still is long BAC and C and likes them.

It took Brian Kelly's prodding to get Ralph Acampora to address that Dow-possibly-12,000-in-October business in Ralph's I-didn't-have-any-other-projects-this-summer-so-I-had-to-put-together-this-thesis newfound bearish report.

Guy Adami said that in 1977, he was "rockin' out to some Linda Ronstadt." Adami told Melissa Lee, like Barker's Beauties showing off McDonald's wings, "I'll give you 5 bucks if you eat one on-air."

‘Something brewing’ in HLF

JC Parets had perhaps the most provocative call on Monday's Fast Money, saying HLF recently had a "beautiful key reversal" and also there was "crazy call activity ... I think there's something brewing."

Karen Finerman asked Parets a great question that he didn't really answer, whether short interest is a factor in his analysis (he just said he likes to see it).

Guy Adami, sort of like Dr. New Land hours earlier, praised GS' report on WMT and said he thinks disappointing sales are already priced in, and that margins will improve.

Grasping too hard for a punch line and forgetting that the rest of the world doesn't revolve around New York, JC Parets countered that "Wal-Mart is like the New York Jets of the Dow Jones industrial average."

Karen Finerman said "I don't own it," which she said makes her de facto bearish. Brian Kelly said he likes it. Mike Khouw said someone was playing a November 70/65/60 put spread in WMT.

Karen Finerman called DFS "sort of interesting." Mike Khouw said that now that MSFT is taking part of Nokia off its hands, "what's left is a better business." Guy Adami said you can be long PFG, "I think you own it into the analyst day," which is Friday.

Karen Finerman said PVH was impressive but richly valued, so "I'd much rather own Macy's" (Drink). Later, during a recap of the day's news events, Finerman said, "All right, I'm a little embarrassed, the Neiman Marcus thing, to me, is what stood out," and that was cute. Are we gonna get in trouble for saying that? We're saying that. That was cute, so we're posting Karen's picture.

Brian Kelly's Final Trade was long GLD. JC Parets said long nat gas. Karen Finerman said FL but rather conditionally. Guy Adami said CBI.

Mel refuses to reveal
her thoughts on stocks

Ralph Acampora, not known for his bearishness, was grasping for takers on Monday's Fast Money about his sudden view that markets are headed for near-term trouble.

Twice he pleaded with someone on the panel to side with him, eventually asking Melissa Lee, "You think it's speculation?"

"Oh, I mean I don't have an opinion as to, as to that," Lee said.

Yeah.

Sure.

Folks at Denny's have an opinion on stock market valuation.

We understand why CNBC hosts aren't supposed to speculate on stock direction.

But no opinion on the subject?

Hard to believe.

If only someone would
offer us $25 million to go away

It seems as though TV hosts who want to get Carl Icahn to speak on their program have their best shot when declaring the conversation to be the state of corporate governance.

Carl and Judge on Monday's Halftime Report agreed that communication between the 2 has been constant recently; "you certainly called my number a number of times," Icahn said, with Judge conceding, "it's a popular number in my Rolodex."

Icahn said he's conceding DELL because "we can't win; it was just too difficult."

Wapner pointed out that Carl made money, so "at the end of the day" it's still a win. Icahn allowed that "in a sense we won," but it's an example of how we need "much better corporate governance," when you inquire about an offer and someone asks to pay you $25 million to go away.

It's "a sad commentary on the laws of Delaware," Carl said.

Icahn insisted that "we have not sold a share" of NFLX, and "at this point, we don't intend to." He also said his dinner with Tim Cook will be this month but he wouldn't reveal the day, and the notion that he expects AAPL to buy NUAN is "a little farfetched."

Carl told Judge he hasn't spoken with Michael Dell, but he sure has spoken with Judge; "you called me so many damn times."

In essence, Joe was too polite
to mention the best reason:
When Simon says ‘game over,’ it’s buy-buy-buy

Joe Terranova, impressively the first person on the Halftime Report to bring up Simon Baker's massive airline-offer bungle since Simon made it, told Monday's show that Baker will indeed be buying Steve Weiss first-class airfare to California over Baker's DAL-lower-at-year-end-than-19.32 prediction, for 3 reasons, index buying, Chinese deregulation and "margin expansion here."

Mike Murphy said "I'd be a seller," because "the stock price has doubled" and when an S&P-inclusion reference is made, "a lot of times, that's a sell-the-news event."

Murphy, though, when revealing "we bought Apple this morning," actually got tripped up by Judge, who suggested "maybe you should've bought it a hundred points ago." Murphy rebutted that it's better to buy it now maybe "200 points" below where it will be; "I think the stock has a lot of upside."

Jon Fortt said he doesn't think the 5C will be cheap. Murphy claimed one benefit of AAPL is that "nobody's really expecting too much of this," while Judge protested that people are expecting "the moon."

The (future) ex-lax economy (cont’d)

Joe Terranova, for about the 7th time in his last 5 shows, insisted on Monday's Halftime Report that "the Fed is going to taper," that you want cyclical stocks, and to keep an eye on steel and coal, "I think we can finally say that short trade's over."

Anthony Scaramucci contended, "I think the Fed is not gonna taper as quickly as people think," and then referred to one of our favorite new terms, the "superlax monetary policy going to lax monetary policy."

Mike Murphy said if there's no tapering now, "I think that would actually spook people."

Brad Berning also insisted that tapering is priced in and called the Fed "less relevant" and said he likes PRU and ALL.

Inexplicably, Dr. New World, who twice said on his last show that he doesn't like the insurers, was quiet as a mouse on the subject Monday, as Stephanie Link pointed out for the dozenth time that Cramer's long AIG and HIG.

‘Lot of selling in Netflix’

Foxy Nicole Sherrod delivered the TD Ameritrade retail-investor assessment on Monday's Halftime Report but without citing that goofy number that neither Judge nor anyone else will explain what it means, said retail investors "really dialed up their market exposure last month" and "bought into the dip."

But Sherrod saw "a lot of selling in Netflix," and selling in AAPL.

Stephanie Link said, "I would buy CAT in the low 80s," and said Cramer bought JOY.

Link said she likes EXPE and made RIO her Final Trade.

Joe Terranova congratulated Goldman Sachs on an "excellent note" about WMT and said it points him to COST. Dr. New Land asserted, "I think the Micron trade is over," predicted EPS challenges for MPC in Q3 and made UAL his Final Trade.

Guest Tyler Vernon said good REITs have experienced the "baby out with the bathwater" situation, and ARE is a "great one to start." He also likes WY.

Mike Murphy said of the BBRY move/reports, "there may be something to this." Murphy called ORCL a buy and said he likes LULU. His Final Trade was PBR.

Anthony Scaramucci said LNKD is a game-changer, and you "gotta stay with this name." He said of MOLX, "look for more acquisitions like this," and made MSFT his Final Trade.

[Friday, September 6, 2013]

Another blow to Simon’s hopes of not buying Steve Weiss and Pete Najarian first-class airfare to California

Given what happened on Friday's Halftime Report — Pete Najarian gushing unchecked about AAPL while others suggested NFLX is a scary stock — it was refreshing on the 5 p.m. Fast Money to hear Brian Kelly claim that AAPL is "vulnerable down to 440."

Kelly said the fact it wasn't soaring on the Dow Jones China report suggests "this news is probably old news" and the reason hedge funds were buying in the mid-400s.

Guy Adami acknowledged that was a good point and reiterated that 465 is his line in the sand and he still thinks it can get to the "515 to 520 level."

Jim Lebenthal said the company can have "little catalysts," which rightly did not impress Steve Grasso in the slightest.

Beyond that brief discussion, this dreadful, cliche-filled 30 minutes of warmed-over CNBC soundbites couldn't end soon enough.

In a late market mover, Dominic Chu reported that DAL, already comfortably ahead of Simon Baker's 19.32 bear-case level of a couple weeks ago, is going to join the S&P 500. Jim Lebenthal said he still likes airlines, and "I didn't know Delta wasn't in the S&P 500."

Lebenthal said the idea of the U.S. and Russia going to war over Syria is "crazy talk."

Guy Adami thinks there's "wiggle room to the upside" in the S&P, and touted Macy's (Drink) on the dip, "that's one you pick up."

Steve Grasso said, "I think you have to be buying stocks here," and asserted that "housing stocks are a screaming buy."

Adami concurred that the XHB "sets up for a nice long trade." Grasso also pounded the table for EEM, which he predicted would bounce for a couple weeks.

Dan Greenhaus said the tapering doesn't matter now (yawn), but it's the "signal" that the Fed gives from here.

Greenhaus joked that his shop has "suspended all view of the Treasury market," but meanwhile, "at the end of the day," it's a "crappy economy," a term Melissa Lee repeated while demanding to know how Greenhaus likes tech and industrials in a "crappy economy."

Jim Lebenthal said he likes F, while Guy Adami chipped in AN and BWA.

Lebenthal, who occasionally had trouble finding the camera, said he wants to see more from JCP and noted that it must be painful for Ackman.

Guy Adami said that in FB, "The trade is to stay long," right up to the earnings release, then sell before it.

Steve Grasso said of NEM, "I'm actually long GDX ... I'd stay long."

Melissa Lee, in hot denim skirt, said they'd deliver a Trade School on the term "set."

Lee also mentioned "porn." (Well, she did reveal Jesse Jane's real name.)

Guy Adami said CHD has had "basically a double top" and can be bought a little lower.

Steve Grasso's Final Trade was GOOG. Brian Kelly said sell APA. Jim Lebenthal said UAL, and Guy Adami said COP.

Flash Crash plan: Put in
$67.12 limit buy for TSLA

If there was any drama on Friday's Halftime Report, it would be whether Dr. New World bungled in selling his NFLX stake.

The guess here is yes, although it's still a sensible call.

The relevant question that needed to be asked by Judge (but wasn't) is, why do Terranova and Scaramucci fear NFLX falling $50 but not AAPL doing the same (at least, they never mentioned it).

Pete Najarian made the bull case for the stock against Anthony Scaramucci, pointing out that user satisfaction is high, and "All they've done Anthony is provide us with a lot of growth."

Scaramucci said he's focused on the "negative cash flow in the company" and warns that there's no safety net when a multiple like this begins to crack.

That's when Joe Terranova reaffirmed his sell-NFLX recommendation of a day ago and said he sold his stake and explained that the catalyst was the sudden belief that Carl might sell based on the report that Carl sold HAIN.

Terranova, who claimed "it's very rich here" (when hasn't that been the case), said he doesn't want to wake up and find the stock down $50, which is just not happening unless Reed Hastings says he wants Steven Ballmer's job.

Basically Joe's catalyst for buying was momentum, which is fine, but now he's suddenly declaring momentum at risk based on some completely unrelated event of one investor (does anyone think Carl's about to go all-cash?), when in fact the 2013 stock market is all about being long the sexy 4-letter ticker symbols.

Honestly, based on their valuation-safety-net argument, Terranova and Scaramucci are implying that NFLX is far more likely to have a $50 selloff than AAPL is. #toeachhisown

We'd be shocked if NFLX doesn't smash through the old 304 high in the very near future. However, Terranova is correct about risk/reward. It's just had such a monstrous 3 weeks, it's hard to believe there's not a fresher place to put money now. It doesn't seem like a sell right now, but a week from now, probably yes. (This writer sold way too early and has no NFLX position.)

Another debate about a high-flier, TSLA, though it involved one of our favorite guests, Aswath Damodaran, wasn't as interesting because it was just a rehash of the valuation argument. Damodaran says he can't get to $20 billion but could, under optimistic, Audi-like projections, get to "8, 9, 10" billion. Pinning a value of $67.12 on it (maybe you can get Bob Greifeld to come through and deliver it at that price), he conceded, "I wouldn't short the stock."

Terranova called TSLA "obviously" a momentum stock but said it would take insider selling for him to get immediately concerned, and that hasn't happened. Anthony Scaramucci drew a nice analogy to shorting this thing and getting airbagged.

The funniest high-P.E.-conversation moment occurred during the YELP chatter, when Simon Baker said he'd pick YELP over FB.

"You gotta be kidding me," scoffed Pete Najarian, who added, "I find it absolutely ridiculous."

Mr. New Land opined, "Clearly the momentum is in place for Yelp," but he said if you're long it to buy protection.

Does that mean, after QE,
it’s the ‘ex-lax’ economy?

We've had it up to here with CNBC personalities predicting when/if/how tapering occurs, which is why Judge's Friday Halftime opened about as weakly as "Jobs."

Steve Liesman reaffirmed that "the plan" (or should that be "The Plan") of the Fed is September tapering, depending on data.

Anthony Scaramucci observed that monetary policy is merely going from "superlax" to "lax."

Joe Terranova opined, "Clearly oil prices wanna go higher," and in another boring segment at the top of the show on emerging markets pointed out that they're not all the same.

Anthony Scaramucci cautioned that in Brazil there is "a lot of corruption, lot of bribery."

Simon actually thinks Columbia’s neighborhood is full of lakeside homes

In an utterly bizarre feature that seems to serve primarily as a way to get Dolly Lenz more airtime, Judge Wapner on Friday's Halftime Report introduced a real-estate battle between a roughly million-dollar home that everyone already knows is in New Haven vs. a roughly million-dollar home of some secretive Ivy League location (that certainly wasn't Philadelphia, Ithaca, Cambridge, Princeton, N.Y. ... and really didn't look like Providence either though we weren't 100% ruling that one out).

We weren't paying any attention until Judge said that Seema Mody would be showing one of them off, and if somehow Seema Mody was part of the package for this home ... o ... m ... g ... anyway, Lenz affirmed that Mody's entry is in Hanover, and then proceeded to trash it, saying a buyer would have to "readjust the entire house to make it work," and the fact it's been sitting for a while, "I think the market's spoken about it."

Pete Najarian suggested Hanover buyers might want to stash a nanny in one of the apartments.

Pete, backing off that "520 before you can blink" bust of a few weeks ago, claimed "there could be some news here" that finally propels AAPL past 500, and "I think there's still some upside." (Right, because there's no chance of Carl exiting; its P.E. is just so much lower than NFLX ...)

Geographically challenged Simon Baker praised AMT; "I like this space a lot" and would own the stock here. Joe Terranova said of TKR, "I actually think you stay with it here."

Baker suggested taking profits in SWHC and moving on. Anthony Scaramucci said he'd sell into homebuilder strength. Joe Terranova called EA "a buy on the dip." Pete Najarian said "Chinese names are far better at this point" than FSLR.

Najarian said he still likes BMY. And, he said he'd pick NKE over UA, though Dr. New Land said he prefers to wear UA; "that stuff is comfy."

Simon Baker said of CSCO, "definitely own it here." Joe Terranova actually said an oil company (OXY) is a buy because it will "monetize" some of its acreage. Anthony Scaramucci said that GMCR's selling pressure is off, "at the end of the day."

Scaramucci's Final Trade was HES. Pete Najarian said KOG, Joe Terranova said MA and Simon Baker said STI.

Looks like September

Anthony Scaramucci on Friday's Halftime Report credited the Federal Reserve for doing a "very good job on the jawboning side," there is "room" now to start the tapering process. But he thinks "it's gonna take longer" and go slower than people think, and will "be very good" for U.S. stocks.

Joe Terranova reasserted, "You will see taper on September 18th." Steve Liesman said he does think tapering happens in a couple weeks but asserted it's a "close call."

Paul Richards predicted a "minimum $20 billion in 2 weeks' time," but it's not keeping him awake at night like uncertainty over the next Fed chief is.

Simon Baker said tapering is "absolutely done."

Mr. New World said his clear bullishness, especially with tech, has changed; "it has changed directly because of Syria."

Keith Banks said, "We would use weakness to continue to add to equities," and pegged Chinese GDP at a minimum 7%.

More from Friday's Halftime Report and Fast Money later.

Syria: Sanctions instead?

Some things are really worth fighting for.

Other things kinda aren't.

And so, given the headlines we've seen on Politico.com about congressional opposition to a strike on Syria, we've gotta be thinking the administration is looking at Plan B. (This is a political matter, mostly having nothing to do with the stock market, and for the purposes of this post, this page is going to be neutral on the subject.)

The White House may exert every drop of political capital it's got on achieving a positive House vote on lobbing Tomahawk missiles at Damascus.

Or, as we suspect, aides are feverishly working round-the-clock under Gordon-Gekko-Bluestar-at-16-type instructions to generate ideas; "Harold, there's gotta be a way out of this," something other than a mysterious sort of strike that Bashar Assad almost certainly deserves though our own leaders who support it can't even articulate what such a move is supposed to accomplish.

It's almost unfathomable that this goes to a vote in the U.S. House of Representatives. If a cruise missile strike somehow passes by 5 votes after extraordinary lobbying, does that constitute a real victory? Clearly it's not in the White House's or the country's interest to undergo an embarrassing U.K.-style vote.

Honestly, and we don't want to trivialize this subject with movie references, but something about this situation resembles Stephanie explaining to Tony Manero in "Saturday Night Fever" how confidence works in an observation that is not trivial at all; if this really is an American problem, then "You shouldn't have asked; you shoulda just done it."

We're not exactly sure what has been done to Syria already or what a proportionate response is. This is what our leaders (should) get paid for. Respect the opposition, concede the support isn't convincingly there, find an alternative we can all live with, and let's move on.

John Melloy’s interest-rate opinion cited on Fast Money

John Melloy is occasionally mentioned on Fast Money whenever someone wants to give a nod to the production crew.

Jon Najarian on Thursday's Fast Money decided that Melloy's opinion on 10-year interest rates (apparently surging past 3.0%) was worth discussion, as Najarian explained that he's in the other camp, "I think we're topping out as far as rates" and will hit an "absolute wall at 3%" and trickle down to 2.8% before eventually climbing higher.

Well, quite frankly, Melloy watches as much of this show and listens to these people as much as we do, so he oughta be stepping in during some of these conversations.

JC Parets, another newcomer not to the show but a panelist seat, said the last time bond bullishness was this low was 2011, and the TLT rallied.

Dan Nathan warned that at 3.0%, "I think you have to be careful here" in the stock market. Parets opined that if rates rise, it's good for stocks. Karen Finerman pointed out that in the past, 3.0% for the 10-year would be a very comfortable level for stocks.

Jon Najarian said there are signs of "organic growth" instead of Fed steroids.

Nathan, though, asserted that "I think equities are gonna sell off here," citing "disconnect" between stock-market valuation and actually corporate results.

Parets agreed with that, saying we have "less (sic, he meant "fewer") stocks participating," and "there's just less good."

Karen Finerman said she likes "Bank America" (sic) and C and that rising rates wouldn't hurt banks, but an "exogenous spike" (Drink, but make it chardonnay given the use of "exogenous") would be trouble.

Lindsey Piegza told the crew that taper doesn't seem right; "the tone of the Fed has been patience," and it "really doesn't make sense to make a preemptive action," in fact, she said, the economy has been "losing momentum since April," while admitting the August jobs report is the "key indicator."

Melissa Lee actually said, "There are a lot of young folks in our audience." Honestly, and we're not trying to take a dig here really, but has Mel seen the latest Nielsen viewership reports? There's gotta be a way to promote the product without dabbling in hyperbole.

The 2nd-half story: Doc claims AAPL is going to be a ‘social media kingpin’

JC Parets, on his maiden voyage as a Fast Money panelist Thursday, declared the notion of a golden cross in a AAPL "nonsense," and said that if you're thinking of a new position, "I don't think it makes any sense at all."

At least if you do it, short the SPYders against it, Parets said.

Jon Najarian revealed, "I'm still holding onto long spreads in Apple," which Najarian says is "on the precipice of being a social-media kingpin."

Najarian argued a bull case for GRPN, pointing to "90% improvement in revenue." But curmudgeon Dan Nathan, who always gets the bear side of these things, said the company is adopting a "very low-margin, low-profitability business" of selling goods, and to wait for a stock price in the "high single digits."

Najarian rebutted, "50% of the business is on mobile."

Apparently the strongest argument, about Amazon selling the same stuff at low if any margin, came from Melissa Lee's conclusion, which prompted Karen Finerman to confusingly say, "I'm right there with you Mel ... it's a really tough business," before Nathan protested that he was the one making the bear case and Finerman said, "I'm agreeing with you. Yes." (And who wouldn't give anything to have Karen say that to them?)

Mike Khouw said someone was buying the November 12/16 call spread in GRPN.

Khouw, however, called NFLX's gains head-scratching. "I find it very hard to understand the valuation of this company at all ... I would absolutely avoid it," Khouw said.

Noting FSLR's gains, Khouw called that "still a very risky space."

Dan Nathan, addressing Z (the stock, not the 1960s French movie), said, "To me this one doesn't make any sense," and Melissa Lee suggested Nathan (after a grand 2% decline in the stock) was somehow taking a "2nd victory lap" in the stock. (No, that's Nick Colas, being brought back to gush about how he said to get out of the market for a whole month during a bumpy August.)

Nathan said support for LNKD's offering is indicative of the "risk appetite of investors ... people still want it."

Liz Dunn: Movies on the mind

We've been clamoring for Stacey for months, but on Thursday's Fast Money, we only got Liz Dunn opining on retail (and not being asked about her longtime support of Ron Johnson's turnaround plan).

"I think it's still rocky out there," Dunn said.

Karen Finerman asked Dunn about her endorsement of "controversial" ANF. Dunn again spurned Apollo or Clubber or Drago and called it a "rocky story," but becoming "more of a margin story."

In what is generally a gratuitous Fast Money reference, Dunn was asked for one pick for the holiday season, and you knew what she'd say, "that's probably Macy's (Drink)," even though "I'm not currently recommending it."

Jon Najarian said that the "real story" in JCP's big week was Stephen Weiss getting long. (#thanksforboostinghisego;itneedsit)

Guest calls Bronco rout,
Manning’s huge day

Sahm Andrangi visited the Fast Money set Thursday to clamor for a sale of the Morgans hotel group, which we had never heard of. "We think that the vast majority of shareholders want this company to be sold," Andrangi said, suggesting it's worth $8 to $15 per share.

Dan Nathan said it sounds good for a "small position."

Karen Finerman got to revisit an excellent call, NM; "I still like it here," she said, while conceding "the space is volatile." (It was indeed a great call, though she also touted it a couple years ago in the summer of 2011 when it busted.)

Finerman, who was quizzed by Melissa Lee to define the differences among the shippers, also noted TKR's gain and revealed, "Sadly we sold our stock about 59."

FInerman said of JOSB (gosh, have you managed to catch one of their commercials?), "We're long, I like it, it's cheap."

JC Parets said, "I like Smith & Wesson," but called NEM "dead money at best."

Demonstrating ability to pick up show cliches quickly, Parets, while saying utterly nothing at all about MU, claimed "this is a stock-picker's market." (And isn't Simon happy while he prepares to buy first-class airfare to California for Steve Weiss and Joe Terranova and Josh Brown.)

Grant Gurtin of Fanium proved to be possibly the best Fast Money guest in months, mostly rattling off Fantasy Football suggestions that we don't think really matter, but much more impressively utterly nailing the Thursday night football outcome; "I think that the Broncos are gonna run away with it," he said, with Peyton Manning dominating.

Gurtin's top player pick was Adrian Peterson, and he suggested taking Jimmy Graham early because of the gap between the next-best tight end. And, he also likes the Rams' Daryl Richardson.

Melissa Lee impressed by using the terminology "sleeper pick."

Gurtin said his company is "exponentially better" than Yahoo and other sites that offer fantasy football because his is focused strictly on fantasy football. (However, he doesn't have a stake in Alibaba that Terry Semel bought and handed to current ownership, at least that he mentioned.)

Jon Najarian predicted the 49ers would win the Super Bowl. "I think this is the team to beat," he said. Honestly we don't see that, and Super Bowl losers historically are lousy the next season, but as we admitted earlier, we don't have a much better opinion.

Dan Nathan's Final Trade was long T. JC Parets said to fade the S&P 500. Karen Finerman said FL, and Jon Najarian said DFS.

Why Seattle can’t win it all

Football season sneaked up on us this year.

Honestly, there's nobody that feels like the right Super Bowl pick regardless.

But the trendiest (if that's a usable term) team is likely the Seattle Seahawks, which somehow amassed gobs of young talent last season.

This page thought so much of that talent in January, it picked them to go all the way — last season.

The problem with that, as evidenced by Seattle's playoff games in Washington (win) and Atlanta (loss), is that the defense, which appeared to be the league's best at season-end, really isn't there. The Falcons rolled them, and before Griffin started limping, the Redskins did too.

It's a paper tiger.

There's an overwhelming argument against winning the Super Bowl for every presumably good team this season. But somebody has to do it. We figure, in this parity-driven age of the NFL in which the Steelers and Giants won titles 3-4 years apart, the Packers are due.

Dr. New World says same line twice, 40 minutes apart, seems to warm up to contrary view in between

We'd been getting concerned during the extended absence, but Joe Terranova roared back to the Halftime Report on Thursday with some aggressive comments on the taper.

And one sector he's evidently been thinking about is insurance, given that he said early in the program "I don't like the insurers here," and then much later in the program, "I don't like the insurers here."

In between, perhaps some reflection occurred, as after the first reference, he said he's merely out of TRV and "I think it's time to get off that train," but then the 2nd time, he said that HIG still has a "bullish formation" and is making improvements, and if you have to be in the sector, that's one he'd be long.

Stephanie Link bristled (the first time this came up) and said Cramer owns AIG and HIG and would buy more HIG on a pullback.

Mr. New Land's call to sell NFLX for his Final Trade was the first time the stock came up during the program, and one of the rare times it's come up in the last couple weeks, a gigantic miss on the part of producers puportedly helping people "seek alpha."

Were they really that ‘hard-won’ in a year the S&P is up 16% in 9 months?

Barbara Reinhardt, whose first name (which came out a bit like "Robert" twice) for whatever reason proved a bit of a pronunciation headache for Melissa Lee (in brand-new sparkling turquoise ensemble) on Thursday's Halftime Report, suggested a pause is in order.

But nobody saw a problem with Reinhardt's advice to time the market by lightening up now simply to "protect some of the hard-won gains." Reinhardt added, "September can be somewhat of a weak month for the markets" (now that's a convincing call).

Lee said that Reinhardt likes Europe and U.S. small-caps. Mr. New World said, "I still think small-caps are going to be good," added that Europe is investable again, Japan is back on the table and of course energy looks strong. Josh Brown contended, "The next leg of this rally is going to be the multinationals."

Later, Neely Tamminga asserted, "We think that the consumer is actually very resilient, and (this is the kind of comment that makes Karen Finerman cringe) said if you're long WSM to hold it, but if you're buying a new position, pick RH. Mr. New World said "I like Pier One Imports" and also said to look at BBBY. Josh Brown said he still likes LOW.

Rick Santelli, in a rare Halftime appearance, predicted that 3% in the 10-year will not be the "bus stop that many of these traders think they're gonna get off on" (that's the way he put it; we're not touching that terminology). Santelli said that with fixed-income redemptions, "Another layer of the onion will start to come off."

Joe: $15 bil. Sept. taper priced in

Joe Terranova asserted on Thursday's Halftime Report that tapering "is going to happen" on Sept. 18 and said "10 to 15 billion is priced in."

Josh Brown said it's the global growth names that are rising with rates, and then claimed he's "probably said this a hundred times" (that would be "I gotta tell ya"), but when tapering first was put on the table, there was one narrative, and then the narrative changed; "people get used to it."

Jon Najarian predicted, "The Fed is not gonna boil the frog here," and said tapering expectations seem to be a case of "let's rip the bandage off quick."

Stephanie Link said rising rates reflect a "better-than-expected economy," and when it comes to China numbers, "Ya gotta start to believe."

‘Gasoline will go lower’

Anthony Grisanti predicted on Thursday's Halftime Report that "gasoline will go lower along with crude oil," just because of the driving season ending and Syria coming to some kind of conclusion.

Rich Ilczyszyn said that 2.80 in the RBOB is the key gasoline level, but "it's on trend support."

Joe Terranova said that energy is "the one thing to be overweight right now." Stephanie Link said she likes APC, plus OXY if it's in the mid-80s and ESV if around 50-51.

Joe added HOS, and Jon Najarian added COP.

Stephanie stole Joe's thunder by being assigned LPX, mentioning its deal and saying "I think it's very positive."

Link issued a nervous buy recommendation on VALE. Jon Najarian said SD is worth being long, but you have to be patient. Josh Brown said of GE, "Technically it's terrible."

Joe: Stay with Z

Jon Najarian made a bull case for YHOO on Thursday's Halftime Report because it's the "most trafficked site," has "embraced mobile," and has bought a big "fantasy sports site."

Josh Brown shrugged that "the business is not in good shape right now."

Brown said of BBRY, "They have to sell the whole company." Joe Terranova said it's significant that with all the activism in tech, "why is that no one has looked at BlackBerry" (well, for one thing they have to deal with the Canadian government just to do a take-under).

Brown pointed to the Google/Motorola deal and said "the patents turned out to be a huge bust."

Jon Najarian wasn't ready to put on a smartwatch trade; "nobody's out there scrambling to buy these things yet."

Joe Terranova suggested avoiding NEM. Josh Brown said you can stick with GRPN, and maybe FAST will work, "stay tuned." Jon Najarian said DLPH is getting a boost from robust car sales and pointed out that MU is the highest since August 2006.

Terranova said of Z, "I think you stay with it."

Najarian suggested ACAD as more of a pure play in Alzheimer's research than giants like LLY that he likes.

Dr. New World admitted that with BBY, "I thought 30 would be the resistance."

Steph Link's Final Trade was NKE. Josh Brown said to "walk away" from YHOO. Jon Najarian said SVU.

Sheila Dharmarajan, an instant contender for CNBC's Mount Rushmore of Hair, made her first appearance on the Halftime Report.

[Wednesday, September 4, 2013]

Nathan: Buy AAPL ‘mid-400 range’

Despite what Mike Murphy and Pete Najarian were saying about Apple's Beijing announcement on Wednesday's Halftime Report, the 5 p.m. Fast Money crew seemed to indicate this is a sell-the-news situation.

Guy Adami said that, given the buildup for a China Mobile deal, it would be a disappointment if there is no deal announcement and evidence that management can't handle expectations like Steve Jobs could.

Adami pointed out that Colin Gillis was not "overly enthusiastic" about the presentation, and Adami reaffirmed, "465 is still my line in the sand."

"They've given up the margin game," said Adami, who likes VZ in the smartphone space.

Mike Khouw agreed that margins aren't the same and predicted the stock would "probably be soft" after the announcement.

Karen Finerman, with not a ton of enthusiasm, professed that if there is an announcement of a China Mobile deal, "I would be very excited about that." Finerman said she is long AAPL and GOOG.

Dan Nathan warned that if Apple gives buyers a choice, people will pick the cheaper 5C. Nathan suggested waiting for a selloff, and "buy this stock in the mid-400 range."

Regis Philbin told the group, "I'm still worried about Apple."

Karen Finerman said she doesn't get how BBRY created any value Wednesday with its sale-deadline expectation, questioning why they don't call it a "fire sale" instead of an "auction."

Guy Adami said the stock is doing what Steve Grasso predicted it would do, rise on a headline, but that shorting the pop is "probably the right trade." Dan Nathan warned that buyers might not swoop in now, but "at the end of the day," just wait to pick up the company in pieces.

Paul Hickey said his smartphone trade is SWKS; "play this for a ride up to 30."

Things That Make Melissa Go ‘Wow’ (cont’d)

Phil LeBeau said on Wednesday's Fast Money that a key takeaway from GM's car-sales update was the "enthusiasm" it has for this year.

Karen Finerman said she heard that GM could've even sold more if it had more inventory in the right place. LeBeau agreed. Melissa Lee twice said "Wow" during LeBeau's report.

Finerman said GM "I still think is attractive here."

Mike Khouw said someone was buying a March 18/20 call spread in F. Paul Hickey said, "We love Ford here."

Dan Nathan suggested that TSLA is "kind of topping out here" and disclosed he still has a put spread on, and he made sell TSLA his Final Trade.

Adami: Carl capable of buying JCP

Guy Adami said on Wednesday's Fast Money that it "would not shock me" if Carl Icahn got into JCP.

Dan Nathan, meanwhile, said Microsoft's Nokia move was "really not a well-liked deal," and he's looking for the stock "somewhere below 31."

Karen Finerman said it looks like DG is "sandbagging a little bit."

Mike Khouw said of CIEN, "I'm not inclined to chase the stock."

Paul Hickey said if you're going to chase ETFC, use a tight stop right around 15.

Guy Adami pointed to Z's reaction since its secondary at $82 and said, "that's a great tell to me." But Dan Nathan contended that "This is a Greater Fool's thing to me ... you don't buy stocks when they go parabolic." Paul Hickey said in the short term, he agrees with Adami.

Adami and Nathan also took up Angie's List on the heels of a choppy interview with CEO Bill Oesterle, who said the company has a "lasting relationship with our members," and that the average churn number that the Street focuses on is "nearly meaningless."

Insiders such as himself have only sold to diversify holdings over set periods of time and "still have substantial ownership," Oesterle assured.

Guy Adami said ANGI has "actually bigger short interest than Zillow." But Dan Nathan said the multiple wasn't so bad, so he'd say "no to Zillow, maybe Angie."

In another CEO interview that got a bit choppy when Melissa Lee and Jon Fortt asked a question at the same time, Qualcomm's remarkably casually dressed CEO Paul Jacobs trumpeted his new watch as though it's a circa-2001 iPod and predicted that wearable type of devices will be the "next generation of, of mobile experiences that we'll get."

Paul Hickey said, "We like Dr Pepper here."

Regis Philbin predicted that "Sirius is on its way to a 5 or 6 or even 7." Dan Nathan said, "It makes sense to me."

Mike Khouw's Final Trade was a diagonals play in BBRY (that's inside Options Action stuff). Dan Nathan, predicting that 10-15% selloff on the next round of news, said to sell TSLA. Paul Hickey said buy CRM, Karen Finerman said buy C, and Guy Adami said to buy GRMN.

Adam Parker says
‘curing Alzheimer’s’ might be
overlooked by the markets

Yesterday, Tony Dwyer said that in all his appearances on TV, he was about to say the most important thing ever.

Today, on Wednesday's Halftime Report, Adam Parker actually said near the end of his interview that he likes health care because R&D has improved and that people are saying, "Wait a minute, maybe there's something really effective in there, like curing Alzheimer's," and investors will realize, "I think I should probably pay a premium for that."

Well, it makes sense; a developing cure for Alzheimer's that nobody knows about is arguably worth an investment premium.

Parker told the Halftime crew that he is positive on the markets because of "the bear case being not that probable." Judge Wapner, citing Parker's intriguing 12-month S&P 500 possibilities of 2,327 (bull), 1,840 (base) and 1,352 (bear), noted Parker's previous pessimism and observed, "It sounds like you have completely turned." Parker reiterated that it's not a question of exceeding EPS targets, but the bear case going unrealized.

Stephen Weiss tossed in an "at the end of the day" in a question about bonds.

Pete Najarian said the stock market is "a focused laser right now on the Fed," and "I think we're in this pause sort of a state."

Mike Murphy asserted the taper is priced in, and the market was rallying Wednesday because "Putin kind of softened his stance" on a Syria strike. Jon Najarian said robust car sales are a sign that tapering might be imminent. Najarian later touted CMI, BWA and JCI, and Stephen Weiss said he likes F and GT.

Is it a ‘2nd-half story,’
or just a July story?

Brian Marshall predicted on Wednesday's Halftime Report that Apple's Beijing event is "gonna coincide with China Mobile offering the iPhone," which Marshall thinks could bring orders of 5 million units of the iPhone by the end of the year.

Marshall acknowledged AAPL stock peaking a year ago on the iPhone 5 and Samsung's doing the same with its last blockbuster, but he thinks this time September doesn't have to be a peak, there's a dividend now and the "stock's a lot cheaper."

Pete Najarian, who didn't mention the "2nd-half story" this time, grumbled, "That 5 million number seems very low."

Stephen Weiss played the curmudgeon, asserting, "Buying back the phones is going to cost them money," and that U.S. carriers won't subsidize Apple phones like they have before, an argument that was made for years but maybe will finally work this time.

Weiss scoffed that the China Mobile talk has been around for years. Mike Murphy said that if there is a China Mobile deal, "that's a buy-the-news event." Pete Najarian agreed.

Jon Najarian said he likes MSFT in the 29-30 range. Judge Wapner overdid it trying to help viewers figure out the point Marc Benioff was making.

Confidence shaken in trading;
S&P climbs 13 points

Jon Najarian assured Judge Wapner and viewers of Wednesday's Halftime Report that his favorite targets aren't behind the latest Nasdaq glitch; "I'm not blaming high-frequency on this one."

Stephen Weiss noted the "discrepancy" in the news updates from Bertha Coombs and Mary Thompson "between 6 and 9 minutes," and explained, "that doesn't give me any confidence."

Stephen Weiss revealed he's actually long JCP; "I did buy some shares today on the opening," he said, while still predicting a hat size of 9 and again knocking Kyle Bass' investment as something that is not Bass' specialty. (But he's long the stock regardless.) Judge Wapner scoffed at Weiss' opinion of Bass; "so what if he's a credit guy," Wapner said.

Mike Murphy said HAIN is "only down about 2% on the day" but that it's tough to buy when Carl's selling; "I wouldn't jump in here."

Anthony Grisanti said fundamentals are "out the window" on gold and that it seemed pressured by McCain and Rumsfeld comments. Rich Ilczyszyn warned that "1,425 is a double-top," and if it breaks through 1,373, there figures to be "more pain to go on the downside."

Pete Najarian argued a weak bull case for DG starting with "year-over-year sales." Mike Murphy countered equally weakly, "I think the valuation right now is getting stretched."

Pete Najarian's Final Trade was JPM, Mike Murphy said HD and Steve Weiss said AIG. Jon Najarian merely trumpeted an OptionMonster conference. Mr. New World had no Final Trade because he's been absent for about 3 weeks; hopefully he's just recharging the batteries and hasn't concluded "I've had enough of this."

[Tuesday, September 3, 2013]

3 basic premises credited for (mostly) getting the market right for 2 weeks

Nick Colas on Tuesday's Fast Money took what is now his 2nd victory lap for predicting in late August a declining market, which he asserted Tuesday "feels like an 8 to 10% move" in a "slow grind."

But it was when rehashing his "3 basic premises" that we started tuning the conversation out.

Guy Adami curiously contended, as he has before, "it doesn't seem like taper's on the table."

Steve Grasso said Syria is the unknown with the market; "we've been there, done that with the debt ceiling."

Karen Finerman predicted any oil spike would be temporary, and she would buy retail stocks in that scenario, assuming they take a hit.

Grasso said even with an oil spike you have to be selective in energy. "You have to stay away from the refiners ... Schlumberger is good, but Halliburton looks better," Grasso said.

Mike Khouw said we're looking at "very moderate action, if any" in Syria.

Karen causes most of her viewership to cringe, possibly change channel

Blunt assessments of AAPL are not uncommon on CNBC.

Karen Finerman though pushed the boundaries of ... omg ... something or other, when she guessed at the new Apple product on Tuesday's Fast Money.

"I think it's gonna be a phone ... another mini, maxi, whatever, pad," Finerman said.

Steve Grasso even claimed moments later, the "stock is really maxed out" (and we are so done with this thread of conversation).

Guy Adami said if you're an AAPL holder, "you stay long it against 465."

Mike Khouw seemed unimpressed that AAPL seems to be playing catch-up, that "ultimately is a bad thing."

Colin Gillis speculated that "unsubsidized, all-in, it's a $400 phone."

Meanwhile, Gillis said the NOK deal was something "Microsoft had to do."

Steve Grasso argued that BBRY has a future north of $10; "it's about enterprise software" and some deal will get done.

Karen Finerman shrugged that "it's been for sale forever," and major customers are afraid to re-up.

Guy Adami said BBRY should've been up solidly on the NOK news and it wasn't; he agrees with Karen. Mike Khouw said some folks were buying 10.50 weekly calls in BBRY seeking a quick bounce.

If people didn’t sell on the Ballmer retirement news, then you can’t really say they were holding the stock simply for a management change

Kathleen Kelley, who was cute in the relaxed pose she struck at the Nasdaq, told Tuesday's Fast Money that "physical demand for gold has actually started to wane again" and that the bullishness is more on the speculative side.

Karen Finerman suggested that HLF could still produce a big short squeeze if the longs designated their shares in a certain way. "It is so dangerous to be here on the short side," Finerman said.

Finerman said Carl Icahn's group "were a constructive shareholder" in HAIN.

Steve Grasso said of STX, "I don't like the chart here," and advised using 37.20 "as your out." Grasso twice pointed out he bought DECK around 53 but you need to see it close above 60 for a couple days before riding it up 75, though it was nevertheless his Final Trade.

Guy Adami predicted CBS would pull back to 48½, 49. And he "wouldn't be surprised to see a 6-handle" in ARO. Citing short interest, Adami said Z "probably continues to move higher."

Adami, repeating for the 3rd or 4th time his curious argument that viewers holding MSFT for a leadership change and didn't sell on the Ballmer announcement really blew it, suggested viewers can actually get long VZ against 45. His Final Trade was EMN.

Mike Khouw suggesed you can "probably get a better entry point" in HUM, but in NUAN, "I don't think there's that much risk to the downside." Khouw's Final Trade was an AAPL calendar spread.

Brian Kelly predicted "possibly more weakness" in KO, and made (as he does about every 3rd appearance) TLT his Final Trade.

Karen Finerman said "I am long GM," and though Fast-Fired on WTW, insisted, "I've made way worse calls than that." But she said "I don't know what to do here" with WTW.

Finerman indicated she'd cover her CAT short below 80. Finerman said "I like Realogy," and made it her Final Trade.

Melissa Lee put together a smokin' top and smokin' new hairstyle.

Guest (seriously)
overpromises, underdelivers

Tony Dwyer on Tuesday's Halftime Report defended his no-taper-in-2013 forecast and 1,760 S&P target, and we figured it was just another humdrum interview, until Josh Brown asked Dwyer to explain why the market doesn't get the difference between tapering and tightening, and Dwyer kicked it up a notch with this:

"For all the years I've done TV, I think this is probably gonna be the most important comment."

Wow. Must be something big here.

Except instead of an important comment, Dwyer tried to string together a story, starting with the Philadelphia Fed having a 2005 research paper on the savings rate that found a lot of revisions made in disposable personal income since 1965, which, according to Dwyer, "tells you how much this data gets revised" ... and what were we talking about again ... and then Dwyer cited durable goods being better than expected ... and we're wondering again what exactly we're talking about ... and Dwyer concluded, "How could the Fed possibly look at a single data point?"

Did anybody say it was?

Stephen Weiss told Dwyer it was unfair for Dwyer to cite 2009 rate data in his argument that stocks have done well with higher rates than this. Dwyer noted, "My opinion is not really relevant."

Pete’s 520 ‘before you can blink’ on Aug. 19 was a bust

Perhaps issuing a challenge of some sort, Stephen Weiss contended on Tuesday's Halftime Report that in targeting AAPL, Carl Icahn might've taken on a company "he really can't impact."

"I'm just not sure we can get much higher than 5, 5 and a quarter," Weiss said of AAPL shares.

Jon Najarian suggested that a trade-in deal could move the stock to 515 or 520.

Meanwhile, the big deal in the mobile space Tuesday prompted healthy debate, as Josh Brown enthusiastically backed MSFT's purchase, and Stephen Weiss gave it a thumbs-up aside from the notion of buying a CEO. Simon Baker contended MSFT's daily move represents what the market thinks of this.

Jon Najarian said he'd be interested in MSFT around "29, 30-ish." Najarian also said regulators might be interested because overseas transactions tend to have more leaks.

Note to males: The most important step in dancing is asking a woman to dance

Josh Brown said on Tuesday's Halftime Report that "I would be long CBS here." Jon Najarian concurred, saying CBS is his favorite media name.

The shocker was when Najarian predicted television irrelevancy for the cable giants. "People are gonna disintermediate these guys, and the cable companies will be basically your Internet provider," Najarian said.

In a clumsy debate over VZ that is too long after its VOD deal, Josh Brown, the bull, said "it was never an if, it was always a when." Simon Baker said it could be equivalent to taking the last girl on the dance floor; just because it's the last girl doesn't mean you really want to ask.

Baker claimed they "paid too much," which in our opinion tends not to have much bearing on near-term stock results. Brown fought back with, "I gotta tell you."

Steve Weiss decided, "There's no reason to own this stock," it will have to fight through the "overhang of the equity," and he prefers VOD.

Kyle Bass’ ability to evaluate a retail stock called into question

Guest Daniel Gamba told Tuesday's Halftime crew that ETF investors took $15 billion out in August, a record, but Stephen Weiss pointed out that as a percentage of ETF assets, it's not a big deal because ETF assets are rapidly growing.

Kate Kelly reported that SAC is up 1% in August and more than 11% for the year.

Jon Najarian reiterated that you should sell gold once the missiles start flying. But Steve Weiss one-upped that, saying, "When you hear the first Tomahawk has been launched, short the energy market."

Najarian said he likes COG and that it's not affected by Syria.

One of the best exchanges recently didn't get nearly enough time because it came at the end of the program, when Simon Baker was unfairly Fast-Fired for a May call in JCP, and asserted, "I do like it down here," as a "speculative part of the portfolio." Stephen Weiss said Kyle Bass' expertise is not in owning retail, but analyzing credit.

Jeff Kilburg claimed "3% is not digestable." Jim Iuorio made some point about movement of stocks and bonds but we have no idea what he was talking about in his conclusion, perhaps it was the S&P 500 level.

Josh Brown said KO is "not a great name, I'd much prefer Pepsi."

Stephen Weiss said you can't short TSLA but he can't accept the valuation, but "There's no reason why it can't keep going."

Weiss said he owns BAC and GT and made TBF his Final Trade.

Brown said LNKD "keeps marching higher," predicted mid-60s for STZ and made VZ his Final Trade as well as FSLR.

Jon Najarian said the solar space will be driven by Germany, and that VVUS got a small CEO-related lift. Najarian's Final Trade was OPK.

Simon Baker said he owns FITB and that Mike Mayo likes C. Baker's Final Trade was ALU.

Stephen Weiss: Syria a ‘nuisance’

Stephen Weiss said on Tuesday's Halftime Report that Syria isn't worth sweating.

"It's gonna be over before you even know it happened," Weiss said.

Weiss said only in 1969 were stocks and bonds down together in the same year.

Simon Baker, like Josh Brown, indicated Syria isn't a long-term concern for markets, and contended, "The big number is coming out in Friday" and suggested being long emerging markets against the S&P. Jon Najarian and Brown pointed to the ISM as stirring up taper issues. Najarian said that unlike John Boehner, he doubts there is much support for action in Syria.

More from Tuesday's Halftime later.

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