[CNBCfix Fast Money Review Archive — July 2018]
[Monday, July 30, 2018]
Brian Sullivan suggests last few days of Nasdaq Composite might be like post-1999, is manhandled by Karen Finerman
(This writer is long FB.)
We caught a little bit of CNBC's stock-picking shows on Monday. Thankfully, it was Karen Finerman to the rescue.
After a borderline hysterical hour of value-vs.-growth hand-wringing on the Halftime Report, the 5 p.m. crew opined on Monday's tech selloff, with more hysteria results.
Guy Adami twice uncorked a bizarre fear-monger scenario, referring to FB's bogus-margin-forecast/PR-control-so-Congress-and-EU-don't-get-mad-it's-up-40%-since-Zuck testified slide, suggesting, "Who's to say the broader market couldn't do something along those lines," which he then defined as 5-8% (which is a lot less than FB's slide).
So, of course, we wondered, what is going to happen that will suddenly sink the U.S. stock market by 5/8/20 percent.
Adami again mentioned FB moments later. "It's trying to tell you something ... who's to say a similar move couldn't happen in the broader market in- in the context of a news story coming out," he said.
OK. So Guy must be unloading all his stocks if the whole market is going down 5/8/20, right, assuming he believes what he says? #singlestocksaremorevolatilethanthemarketGuy #threadtheneedlewiththeFastMoneygang
Guest host Brian Sullivan mentioned 1999 (snicker) (that's a buy-buy-buy signal), stating, "A lot of us were here back in 1999 (actually none of them were to our knowledge, at least not on CNBC), when you had a lot of people crowding into the same stocks ... and every cab driver out there would talk to you about them. I felt like it was, it was FAANG-y, kinda the same way." (#Brian1999isnotgoingtohappenagainbecauseeveryoneisafraid1999isgoingtohappenagain)
As of Monday, it's not just FAANG but many other dynamite tech stocks that were ridiculously being given away by algorithms. Karen Finerman, standing tall and stunning in white, correctly stated, "To me, the valuation of Facebook now is attractive. I think it's well overdone."
Not only that, "It wouldn't shock me if this FAANG thing, as quickly as it happened, that it starts to turn around," Karen said. "This FAANG selloff right here, comparing it to 1999, I don't quite get it."
Neither do we. #Whenstupidalgosgiveusgifts,wetakethem.
On the Halftime Report, instead of loading up on tech at gift prices, Steve Weiss (it's not about acronyms or labels, it's about individual stocks) and Jim Lebenthal (value has had false starts before) didn't completely jump aboard the value bandwagon, but Jim ludicrously warned that this time, growth names haven't recovered all their losses in 2 days, so maybe it really is a new value era, and Weiss tried to argue that some of his favorite tech stocks (AAPL and GOOGL) are really "value" stocks and not "growth" stocks.
Joe? Joe was trying to thread the needle, insisting money would be flowing out of tech "because of momentum" and even said he trimmed MSFT and suggested selling TWLO. #It'stheCalloftheYearJoe #Don'tblowit #Thesepricesaregifts #ThisisFacebookJoenotGPRO.
WBA is up 16% since Amazon bought Pillpack June 28, by the way.
If GOOGL is so much better than FB, how come it fell 2.5% Friday while FB fell 0.78%?
TV hosts are a smooth bunch, able to handle all kinds of commotion around them while putting together flawless live broadcasts.
Nevertheless, Scott Wapner succumbed to some of the hysteria suddenly and hilariously gripping the U.S. stock market on Friday, actually asking his Halftime Report panel, "Is Facebook a no-touch right now because you gotta wait and see what happens?" (What exactly will people have to "wait and see" ... personally witness someone logging in to Instagram to make sure it hasn't disappeared? ... Screenshots of ads appearing on the site? ... Vladimir Putin and firms in England revealing to everyone, "Yes, this is how Donald Trump won, all those people in Wisconsin/Ohio/Pennsylvania/Michigan/virtuallyMinnesota were brainwashed by KGB-caliber trickery on Facebook even though Californians and New Yorkers and Illinoisans were too smart to fall for it.") (#shelostthewhitewomenvotebytheway) (This writer is long FB.)
According to our back-of-the-envelope calculations (snicker) based on a supposedly horrid quarterly earnings report, Facebook grossed $200,000 in the time it took to write the above paragraphs.
Rather than pointing out the utter gifts that have been delivered to FAANG-watchers the last 2 weeks, Wapner was fear-mongering the tech sector, rattling off some of Friday's losers, including Intel, and claiming Facebook had "another follow-through on a, on a huge down day."
"Another follow-through." What does that mean? #itwasdown$1.37
#EarthtoScott:ThisisFacebooknotGE
Wapner claimed, "For the first time in a while, real questions about tech." Jim Lebenthal, who on June 18 was saying 1) INTC is in Year 2 of the MSFT-like comeback and 2) you'll be sorry if you didn't buy it at that day's price ($53), for some reason jumped aboard, but Joshua Brown to his credit introduced sanity to the conversation, pointing to "recency bias" and stating, "Are we forgetting what Microsoft and Google had to say, like, 36 hours ago?"
Fending off Jim's Mike Wilson-esque commentary, Brown said the number of earnings beats in tech is "closer to like 85" percent and that "Guidance overall's been great."
It wasn't recency bias but "ownership bias" that was clearly ruining Jon Najarian's week. Najarian, who on Wednesday said it's a "no-brainer" that FB outperforms AMZN over the next 12 months, then freely admitted Thursday he somehow flushed away $50,000 on now-worthless FB calls when he could've just bought the stock and waited (however many months) for the inevitable new all-time high, on Friday pronounced FB as having another "14% lower" to go, while according to Najarian, TWTR suddenly looks "tasty" down $9. And we all know that if Najarian had spent that 50 grand on TWTR 46 calls, he'd be dubbing FB at 174 "manna from heaven."
Tim Seymour, not surprisingly, on the 5 p.m. Fast Money said of FB, "I think it's dead," because of the "disclosure issue" (snicker) and "governance issue" (snicker) and "security's a major cost for these guys going forward" (snicker). (Facebook grossed $41,000 in the time it took Seymour to make that point.)
We'll see what these C/BAC/GS longs have to say when they crawl out of their fallout shelters and FB is back to 190.
Jon Najarian could’ve bought 230 shares of FB on Wednesday with his $50,000, it’d be worth $40,000 now, then back to $50,000 in a few months; instead it’s $0 forever (a/k/a Why are other tech stocks down just because Facebook is spending more money?)
It's borderline hilarious.
On Wednesday's Halftime Report, the Najarians gushed about the greatness of FB, with Jon even suggesting maybe "this thing just goes significantly higher."
Host Scott Wapner asked whether the "better returns over the next year" would come from FB or AMZN. Pete Najarian said with no hesitation, "Facebook." Jon Najarian said "it is a no-brainer, I think."
On Thursday, Jon Najarian could barely conceal the frustration, reverting to options-sales mumbo jumbo in telling Wapner, "The good news is that when you have an option position rather than stock, you lose that option position, I dropped about 50 grand on that, thank you very much, uh, last night, uh, but, uh, it was options, not stock, I controlled about 15,000 shares of stock through those options." (How is he controlling anything if the options are hopelessly out of the money?)
Nearly bungling the obvious question of the day — is FB a buy now? — Wapner only feebly managed to ask Pete Najarian what to do with these shares. "The stock position? I'm holding onto it," Pete said.
Ah, that's interesting. Pete's not selling. As a matter of fact, on Wednesday's Fast Money, with the stock at 197 afterhours, Pete said, "Buy it." (We did. On Thursday. This writer is long FB.)
Oddly, the ability to buy this company at $40 off didn't impress a pair of observers on Thursday's Halftime. Steve Weiss stated, "I don't think you see the quick bounce." Joe Terranova offered, "I think if you're buying it today, you're buying it on the belief that the guidance as it relates to operating margins is too conservative. I don't know whether that's the reality or not." #ThisisFacebookJoenotGoPro
By the way, while chortling about the all-time high on Wednesday afternoon, Jon Najarian again told Scott Wapner that with the stock at 150, "You and I were the only buyers on the desk," except 1) Wapner doesn't make stock calls and 2) Najarian had also called it a buy at higher levels than 150 before it bottomed around that level.
David Seaburg on Thursday's 5 p.m. Fast Money bemoaned of Facebook, "They come out and pull the rug out from investors." OK. They pulled the rug out from the longs. If you weren't long, it's called a gift.
And they said FB was the best FAANG stock because it has the lowest P.E. ratio
Anybody tuning into Thursday's Halftime Report for a credible market assessment surely was reaching for the remote once Mike Wilson claimed again at the 7-minute mark, "There's a rolling bear market going on."
Host Scott Wapner, who allows this refrain every few weeks while looking starry-eyed for the next news report on Bill Ackman, actually mentioned the S&P, Russell and Nasdaq and told Wilson, "That doesn't feel or sound like a quote 'rolling bear market' to me."
"I know it doesn't look it, and that's the trick, right," Wilson explained.
The Nasdaq composite is up for 6 straight years. That's the real trick.
Dan Nathan revealed on the 5 p.m. Fast Money that he buys into the rolling-bear-market concept.
Karen Finerman twice
recommends L Brands
Va. Va. Voom.
Viewers of Tuesday's (7/24) Fast Money not only noticed Karen Finerman in stunnnnnnnning new white outfit and new hairstyle but also learned about potential positive developments in easily one of the world's most important products.
Finerman gave a "bull's eye" (that meant "buy" during this feature) to recently beleaguered LB late in the program, then made it her Final Trade.
"This one I actually think is so cheap ... I think there's a comeback in the future," Finerman said.
Meanwhile, Tim Seymour uncorked GM as his lunkheaded Final Trade. "This is a name I feel very good about," Seymour said.
Lee Cooperman moved by extraordinary Wall Street tributes read by Scott Wapner
Tuesday's (7/24) Halftime Report was an interview with, and tribute to, investing legend Lee Cooperman as Omega converts to a family office.
Scott Wapner brought Lee to tears with these tributes: "I also reached out to some of, uh, the heavyweights if you will of- of this business, uh, to get sort of their thoughts on, on what you've meant to the industry ... Mario Gabelli, who ... stuck with you through thick and thin, writes to me, 'After Lee started his firm in the early '90s, he would grill me on stocks that he thought I had a core competency in. It was as though I was his younger teammate. He still does that.' Uh, David Tepper, uh, wrote to me, 'I knew Lee from when he headed an investment committee at Goldman Sachs I was on, and I always considered him one of the all-time great stock-pickers.' David Einhorn says, uh, 'Lee has boundless energy, is a fantastic storyteller with a long memory and has an anecdote for every situation. But even more he has a heart of golden generosity. He is a terrific example for everyone in my generation.' Uh, Lee when- when you hear that, I'm wondering what you think."
Lee said, "Well, it brings tears to my eyes. Shouldn't do that to me. Not in a public arena."
Cooperman dubbed Donald Trump's trade policies "very dangerous" and added, "I think he's on the wrong track, and I hope he backs off." Lee also said of the SEC, "One of my cause celebre maybe in my next life will be to get a losing-party-pays legal system. Believe me, if losing party pays, I would've gone to trial."
Wells Fargo analyst calls
Melissa Lee ‘Michelle’
It really is bizarre how often this happens.
On Tuesday's (7/24) Power Lunch, Melissa Lee introduced Wells Fargo senior analyst Tim Conder.
Conder said, "Good afternoon, Michelle."
Lee said, chuckling, "Uh, it's Melissa, that's OK, but Michelle's here too."
Jeffrey Sonnenfeld says show couldn’t ‘do any better’ than the other two guests, then talks more than both of them put together (and makes zero sense)
We always look forward to Ivy League profs on CNBC, because we figure we're bound to learn something, and we sure do need it.
On the Halftime Report of Wednesday, July 11, Scott Wapner brought in Linette Lopez and Bethany McLean and Jeffrey Sonnenfeld to discuss recent tweets from Elon Musk directed at Lopez.
Revealing a portion of business school we weren't familiar with, Sonnenfeld dropped a bombshell of accounting theory (or maybe just basic math) when he claimed Chanos, a famous short seller, "doesn't benefit" if the stock falls.
"He doesn't benefit, right, he's already- he's already taken his short position, it doesn't- obviously if the stock goes down, it's good for him. But it- but for Musk to suggest that somehow, uh, there's some trading taking place by Chanos is ludicrous," Sonnenfeld said.
Let's think about that for a second ... Sonnenfeld is actually suggesting that Elon Musk thinks Chanos is feeding negative information in order to make a trade AFTER the stock falls?
Moments later, Sonnenfeld was asked by Wapner what a CEO is "supposed to do" to counter articles he/she believes to be inaccurate or unfair. Sonnenfeld's answer: "You have to have a board that's a stronger board than what poor Jonathan Bush had at Athenahealth, or, um, or Klaus Kleinfeld at Arconic that- or Ellen Kullman at DuPont (remember, that's Joan of Arc), where the CEOs were unable to speak back, they- if they could speak back with the facts ... they have a chance to persuade people."
So ... Tesla needs a stronger board in order for Musk to tweet?
And these other CEOs were somehow "unable to speak"?
Is this what they teach at Yale?
Is this for real?
Wapner might've spilled the beans a bit when stating, "Chanos is the one who said in the midst of all of this ... that he talks to reporters, uh, all the time. As, as you, Linette know, and Bethany you know, and I do as well, um, from all of our professional relationships, um, with Jim." (OK. If we were to speak for Lopez and McLean, we could do as Mr. Panos in "Wall Street" says, "Thank you for (supposedly) telling me what I already (apparently) know.")
Sonnenfeld began his appearance on the program telling Wapner, "I'm honored to join you on this show, but frankly with, uh, with Linette Lopez and Bethany McLean, you can't do any better than those 2 guests."
But then he went on to speak for 4 minutes, 12 seconds (we timed it), while Lopez spoke for 2:11 and McLean spoke for 1:36. (And Joshua Brown still managed to get a word in edgewise.)
Wapner referred to "Mr. Musk" in his description of the incident.
Oh joy — Let’s open an account in the Netherlands to play Bill’s closed-end comeback try (as opposed to shipping a buy-CMG order to Steve Grasso at the NYSE)
An interesting development occurred in Nasdaq-stocks-land on Thursday.
eBay slid a whopping 10% after a challenging earnings report. (This writer has/had no position in eBay.)
It's only notable because of a semi-famous trade mentioned on CNBC's Halftime Report at least 3 times over the past 14 months: The college chap who won the Ira Sohn best-idea (or something like that) contest for suggesting a long EBAY/short PYPL pairs trade. (This writer is long PYPL.)
The usual disclaimers: 1) We're not repeating anyone's name, because 2) no need to outline someone's mistakes at age 20 (goodness knows, we've got plenty of those in the archives), and 3) We wouldn't be harping on this at all if said stock-picker hadn't been re-invited and then later, CNBC panelists weren't inclined to do revisionist history and bungle the recap of the trade and make it sound like a glorious win, and 4) it all says something about Wall Street elites (see below).
On May 9, 2017, the Sohn champ told Scott Wapner's panel, "eBay is a long, but, embedded in the idea that eBay is a long, implies that PayPal is also a short (sic grammar). Because there's a peer value transfer from PayPal to eBay, about $1 billion in earnings starting in 2020, in perpetuity."
On March 16, 2018, the champ returned and still sorta claimed that PYPL is a short and claimed that PYPL execs had been publicly calling its eBay business a "loss leader."
Yet that didn't stop Jon Najarian (who typically has excellent recall) from claiming during a June 8 discussion of a PYPL upgrade, "The kid at Sohn, remember that Judge, the young man at Sohn that, that won it last year, won it with this call. With this call on PayPal. And it was, yeah, it was a tough call to make when he made it, and then when it just zoomed ... he deserves credit."
Yeah. Sure. Here's the truth: On May 9, 2017, the long (EBAY) closed at $33.72, and the short (PYPL) closed at $49.22. As of Thursday's close, the long end of this trade is up 1% ... and the short end is up 78%.
Like we said ... can't say it enough ... everyone makes mistakes. Not harping on that. Just know that on the original May 9, 2017, episode, Josh Brown described being among the investing elite at Sohn while the trade was presented. "I was in the audience," Brown revealed, and "everyone was like very into the idea." 2 and 20, anyone?
All the best, Lloyd Blankfein
This is one of those derivative trades.
We certainly don't know Lloyd Blankfein. But others do. And being sort of plugged into the Wall Street-CNBC-financial media radar, occasionally, things about movers and shakers cross the desk around here, including things that aren't so much stories but descriptions or anecdotes.
It used to be said on CNBC (and possibly still is, if they ever actually have a reason to talk about him) that Henry Paulson had/has "sharp elbows." We've never heard such an assessment of Lloyd Blankfein.
Yes, to get where he is, one has to be aggressive. Tough. Skilled.
The way we hear it, rather than a sharp elbow, most people fortunate enough to encounter Lloyd get a handshake or a pat on the back.
He leads a bottom-line business in a bottom-line industry. That industry is in permanent transition, not really for the better. That is the reason he'll be stepping down as Goldman Sachs CEO in a few months and why his successor probably will not maintain the position for nearly as long. There have been cogent comments on CNBC about shortcomings of Goldman Sachs, different approaches it could've taken, industry headwinds. All valid points.
The only complaint we'd express here is that, like so many other business greats, Lloyd typically keeps his opinions and assessments under wraps. The world needs to hear from people such as himself on a number of subjects far beyond improving FICC trading results. It's fine, actually very important, to make money. There just needs to be more than that from people capable of much more.
Nevertheless. The people of Goldman Sachs and its customers are very lucky to have had this gentleman at the helm.
A credit to Wall Street.
He'll be missed.
Soon.
[Monday, July 16, 2018]
Guy Adami suggests association with Obamas, Susan Rice is ‘valid explanation’ for Netflix’s subscriber shortfall
Late Monday afternoon, the Fast Money gang speculated about Netflix's disaster (the stock was actually trading $40 higher Tuesday than it was in Monday afterhours) when Guy Adami mentioned what he was seeing on social media.
Said Guy, "I see it on Twitter ... March 26, Netflix announced Susan Rice was joining the board. Obviously they announced the, uh, President Obama and his wife were gonna be some sort of contributors. People are saying, maybe this terrible number is based on the fact is (sic), as polarized as the country are (sic), maybe people stepped away from Netflix because of that. That is a valid explanation in the environment that we find ourselves in. Just something to think about."
Host Missy Lee cut to a report from Kate Rogers basically before Guy was even finished speaking.
CNBCfix Movie of the Week:
Edward Yang’s offshore accounts of ‘A Brighter Summer Day,’ ‘Yi Yi’
Edward Yang directed a pair of acknowledged masterpieces of modern cinema. One is "A Brighter Summer Day"; the other is "Yi Yi" (also known as "A One and a Two").
Both involve everyday depiction of life in Taiwan, an entity mentioned on this page not too long ago, forever a source of worldwide fascination for its lack of definition.
Directors trying to tell the story of a nation/state/territory typically run out of time. "The Leopard" is a beautiful 3-hour account of the unification of Italy, but all the stuff that happens afterward has to be left to De Sica, Fellini, Rossellini, Antonioni, Coppola, Scorsese and still others. Russsia, France, Israel, Ireland are all popular subjects ... try defining them in 2-3 hours (and without mentioning Germany).
Taiwan, however, just might be doable. Its position on worldwide radar is historically only very recent, and its size is compact. It is very much on the front lines of what remains the world's (possibly) last superpower dispute. Taiwan, by its existence alone, succeeds mightily at something — rankling China. This makes it an extremely valuable ally of the United States. But what of those who live there? They are human beings, not foreign policy pawns.
Enter Yang. Born in Shanghai in 1947, raised in Taipei, later educated in America, Yang — whose lifetime dance with the cinematic profession is curious — tells in "A Brighter Summer Day" the story of the Taipei he must've known. The authorities. The parents. The kids. The system. The uncertainty. The growing pains. The people who believe Shanghai to be their rightful home forced to live someplace else next to island natives who view them with mixed reviews, wondering where their roots are, wondering a decade later if they'll ever go back and whether doing so could happen peacefully or only by conquest, quite possibly sentiments shared by displaced Cubans in the late 1960s and '70s or Iranians in the late 1970s and 1980s. "Yi Yi," the later of the films, involves multiple generations re-assessing their values in a world still partly dominated by American corporate influence but also emerging globalism.
"Day" is 4 hours; "Yi Yi" is 3. Don't let that scare you. They don't have to be seen all in one sitting. Watch an hour, think about it, come back for more. Appreciate some of the majestic shots Yang offers, often distant, deep-focus with seeming touches of Robert Bresson.
Yang is hardly the only successful Taiwanese filmmaker (he passed away in 2007), and no single film can define a ... people. But that's what we're getting at here. Beyond obviously imperfect definitions. Showing us who people are without dwelling on what they are. Yang has the world's most fertile ground for this particular observation.
When words are not adequate. That's the power of cinema.
[Monday, July 9, 2018]
‘Total crap’ is a good description of Monday’s program
In an absolutely obnoxious edition of the Halftime Report on Monday, a few comments stood out.
Judge said Scott Minerd is threading the needle again, tweeting that this is the "last hurrah" and that you should "sell now" because "speculators may do better in August."
Judge also said Mike Wilson, who claims to believe that we're in a "rolling bear market" (snicker), gave tech and small cap a downgrade. Jim Cramer actually said it's a "very well-reasoned piece."
But Jim said the employment number may have been "the best" he can recall.
Joe Terranova pointed out that everything started Thursday afternoon, "a very odd afternoon."
About the only time things got mildly interesting was when someone, we think Joe, mentioned the notion of a retail "apocalypse." Pete claimed that's "total crap" and added, "It's totally total crap."
Pete railed about KR going from 20 to 29. "Unfortunately on the network, we talk about, OH, AMAZON'S KING OF THE WORLD. Are they really?" He said BBY, TGT and WMT can all compete.
But he wasn't so demonstrative when KR was actually $20. (He might've recommended it at some point. Was he recommending it Monday at 29? Hard to tell.)
However, Pete's partly right, the Amazon "king" notion is a little stretched.
Trumpeting TGT, Pete said, "Everybody keeps talking about a FAANG rally, right, and I get it ... but it's far more broad than all of that."
If Judge needs more help from other CNBC hosts, maybe they should give Marcus Lemonis and Sidney Torres some Calls of the Day
It's hard to believe anyone got through the entirety of Monday's Halftime Report with Jim Cramer and Stephanie Link jabbering with each other and making faces and chuckling over everything, but here are some of the "highlights."
Pete Najarian said he sold NKE because of the ... P.E. ratio.
Stephanie Link said "I love Nike" and she's not selling it, "but Under Armour I think has the most upside."
Judge's Call of the Day was HSBC giving KORS an 88 target. Pete said it seems "a very short-term call." Joe Terranova sounded skeptical that KORS has really branched out beyond handbags. Jim Cramer said RL and PVH are better names. Jim also called URBN "fantastic fashion."
Link said GLD is cheap, and "the bad news is already in." But she twice referred to it as a "value trap."
Jim Cramer called WFC a buy, which prompted Pete to shriek in joy.
Stephanie Link started talking about 4% GDP. Joe suggested the regionals, specifically FRC, BBT and RF, are better than C and BAC. Joe also mentioned WTFC; Stephanie likes STI.
Link suggested Macau gaming names. Pete called WYNN a buy.
Judge brought up Barron's "profit champs." Pete said Navin Shenoy will get the INTC job and be "just like" MSFT's Satya Nadella. (He didn't say that Jim Lebenthal says INTC is only in Year 2 of the MSFT arc.) Link likes NOC over LMT. Link and Cramer like TXT. Joe touted OXY.
Jim Cramer likes MPC; Joe said he has to "pooh-pooh" the name. Joe tried to critique the balance sheet of MPC, but everyone kept chuckling over him.
Pete touted XOM. Joe said gas exposure has been a problem; "you're getting penalized."
August 195 AMGN calls got Pete's attention, as did XOP August 47 calls.
Jim didn't seem too impressed by SNAP.
Joe said he was "harshly criticized" for taking a CMG stake 6 weeks ago.
Judge and Cramer agreed that SBUX's problem is not China but growth.
Pete said to stay away from PG. Stephanie Link said she's adding to URI.
Pete said he'd rather be in DAL, AAL and UAL than SAVE.
Jim said he doesn't think PEP goes all the way down to 99-100.
Jim Cramer endorsed TTWO. Joe said 70% of gaming revenue is digital, and it'll go to 100% in 3 years.
Stephanie Link endorsed JNJ.
Joe's final trade was CMA. Stephanie Link actually said IBM. Pete said CBOE. Jim said GRPN. And who cares about any of it? This stench-fest was so awful, we're not going to bother tuning in Tuesday. If viewers are lucky, Donald Trump will be giving some press conference in Europe from noon Eastern to 1 p.m.
[Friday, July 6, 2018]
Can you name the No. 1 stock of the 1980s? It’s actually out of business
Out of an abundance of recent curiosity, we tried a quick little Google search to see if we could easily find an authoritative list of the best-performing stocks of the 1980s.
We found one.
You would think, this is the decade that brought Microsoft; must be a lot of tech names. In fact, there are virtually none, and the list is dominated by ... brick-and-mortar retailers.
The list suggests that if you get long retailers when they're expanding, the stocks can have a lot of room to run.
2 of the names (and essentially a 3rd) on the top 25 are defunct. You've heard of all of them. 3 of the names would've been great long-term holds: WMT, HD and BRKa.
Everything else was kind of good for a trade, apparently for an entire decade if not more.
Can you name No. 1? Here's the list.
Pete says Weiss ‘exactly wrong’ to want to unload banks
Pete Najarian on Friday's Halftime Report took issue with a fellow Halftime panelist's thoughts about the banks.
Pete said he's willing to hold onto BAC and C but said Steve Weiss' (who wasn't on the show) often-stated recent inclination to unload the big banks ASAP (a great idea) is "exactly the wrong decision" because Pete thinks they're only in a "basing range."
OK. Owning C vs. owning FAANG. That's what makes a market.
Jim Lebenthal said the problem for banks "is where yields are." (So why not just trade the 10-year instead of bank stocks? And if you don't know which direction the 10-year is going, then how can you own bank stocks?)
Jim: Neither bulls nor bears have the upper hand
On Friday's Halftime, Judge brought up the "feeling of Goldilocks." But Jim Lebenthal said, "I'm a little concerned," because the Goldilocks notion and Q2 earnings hopes are "based on a backward-looking view."
Joe Terranova stated, "Technology is the compass for the entire asset class of the capital markets (sic last 9 words redundant)" and marveled about how well the market has done since Thursday afternoon.
Jim groused, "I don't think either the bulls or the bears have the upper hand right now." Jim added, "You have to have some sort of resolution on this trade war."
Jim claimed that "the good news" is that "I don't think you go below the bottom of the range," which he said is "about 2,700" on the S&P.
Judge claimed he was telling Cramer in the morning, "It's a supreme stock-picker's market." Interesting. Seems like you can buy the QQQs and do pretty well.
Pete Najarian shrugged that there's only been "a little, small pullback" in tech. Judge protested that there's been "definitely a more defensive flavor" in the stock market.
Jim said he nibbled a bit recently on SBUX. Valid try Jim, but you're too early; no one likes this stock yet #buyFAANGJimmakemoremoney
Judge brought up the market as a Charlie Brown shirt. (That's when it's not a Goldilocks market apparently.)
Joe Terranova said Friday's tape is "nicely broad-based."
Catching up with the semantical debate of a day earlier in which Pete Najarian trounced Josh Brown, Erin Browne said the trade dispute is a "skirmish" and not a "war," and the Friday announcements were about "things that we already knew about."
Browne said, "Historically, July is a great month to be long equities." That may be true, but we think that's a lousy reason to plunge in.
Jim grumbled that we shouldn't analyze just the tariffs, because there are "a lot of other things that can happen," pointing to QCOM.
Pete Najarian pointed to the VIX and said, "It's not as volatile as everybody thinks."
Erin says you can buy EM now; Joe says he agrees with that ‘longer term’
Erin Browne on Friday's Halftime said, "I think that there's now value in emerging markets stocks."
Joe Terranova said, "I would agree with that, on the longer term."
But then Joe added, "In the near term, you're gonna have problems in the emerging markets."
OK ... if it's going down in the near term, why would anyone be buying it now?
Pete Najarian basically dissed the EEM and said you should know what you own and said he prefers to be more stock specific. But he didn't name any names; Joe said he agrees and named Nestle, Diageo, MercadoLibre.
Dom Chu said some portfolio manager likes STLD and FSLR. #JustbuyFAANGsirmakemoremoney
Pete suggests LRCX is a ‘falling knife’
Joe Terranova on Friday's Halftime said he "went out and bought the XBI today."
Joe said BIIB is creating an R&D buzz and is "socially exciting" as well.
But Pete Najarian wasn't quite so enthusiastic, saying of BIIB, "It's extremely exciting. I think we also should be very very cautious," because this is Phase 2 and not Phase 3.
Jim Lebenthal touted GBX and GM. Judge asked if Jim isn't worried about autos' place in the trade dispute. Jim claimed, "It's priced in." Judge said GM is down 10% in a month. Jim said "it's also had a good year." Actually, if the 1-year chart means anything, you should buy at 35 and sell at 45.
Jim's most interesting call was to look at CAT for a bounce.
Later, Jim said Ford's sales slide in China can't be explained by tariffs because it happened before the tariffs. Jim said "there's really no reason to own Ford over GM. Own GM."
JD September 41 calls were on Pete's radar screen.
Joe Terranova said he doesn't think you buy DB now; it needs to "dramatically, dramatically cut its expenses." (This writer is long DB.)
Pete said PSMT is "doing all the right things" and "should be bought."
Erin Browne predicted industrials would "stay under pressure" until there's more "clarity" in the trade disputes.
Anthony Grisanti said 74.40 is upside resistance to crude and 72.20 is downside support, but he agrees with Bob Iaccino that prices will start to slide.
Jim Lebenthal said you can play the momentum in BOX. Joe Terranova said he always likes FDX and UPS and also suggested UAL and JBLU. Erin Browne predicted transports continue to do well. Pete Najarian suggested LRCX might be a "falling knife" and suggested holders might want to "pull the ripcord and just move on."
Erin's final trade was XLY. Pete said "energy names" and NXPI. Jim said INTC, stating the notion of a bunch of things being swept under the carpet is "bunk." Joe said NTGR, ADBE and AKAM.
Shaquille O'Neal, a fine gent, dropped by and took a seat for a few minutes, but we're not really sure why. Shaq brought the traders a box of Krispy Kreme chocolate-glazed doughnuts.
Bill Griffeth told Judge that Bill must be the only Laker fan not too thrilled about LeBron James, but "it's too complicated to talk about right now."
Gina Sanchez actually took a seat as a panelist on the 5 p.m. Fast Money. #holidayweek #what'sdr.doom'slatestforecast
[Thursday, July 5, 2018]
Claude Lanzmann, filmmaker
behind ‘Shoah,’ dies
We're going to talk stocks and TV here, but, as Jim Lebenthal will sometimes say, "Hang on, hang on, hold on a second."
Claude Lanzmann died at 92, apparently on July 5, according to Le Monde. Lanzmann was the director of "Shoah," a 9½-hour documentary released in 1985 in which Holocaust survivors recall what they saw. Because of its length and format, "Shoah" is a unique property in the film world but typically regarded among the 100 greatest films ever made.
There are legit filmmaking criticisms. The format is very similar to what "60 Minutes" (an outstanding show in its own right) would look like in extended takes. Much of what is said in the film had previously been stated in testimony at hearings or war-crimes trials, and the few visuals gradually become repetitive.
It seems the most significant accomplishment of "Shoah" is its position in the vanguard of post-1970s WWII-era artistic material. Put another way, Lanzmann had an instinct, recognizing before most others that the stories of the early 1940s held permanent, staggeringly powerful relevance for much later generations. American movies about World War II had played since about 1942, but look what came only after "Shoah": Stephen Ambrose's Band of Brothers, Tom Brokaw's The Greatest Generation, Steven Spielberg's "Schindler's List," the National World War II memorial in Washington, D.C. (2004).
Lanzmann was not a cinematic prodigy. He was in his late 40s when he began work on "Shoah." He had something to say, and he wanted to say it. He has said he was inspired in the mid-1970s to locate survivors who had given official accounts many years earlier and that the biggest difficulty with the film was simply finding those people. He has said most of the funding came from France; according to AP, much was from his ex-lover, Simone de Beauvoir. Lanzmann led what might be called a European bohemian lifestyle. Prior to "Shoah," he had a single film credit. Most directors (Orson Welles notwithstanding) experience trial and error before a big breakthrough. Lanzmann was not a likely candidate for putting together a seminal work such as "Shoah." That he did tells us that skill and intellect of course matter, but effort puts us over the top.
Josh Brown tripped up in semantical clash with Pete, still gets pat on the back
Judge returned to the Halftime helm on Thursday, but it was at Post 9, which produces weaker shows marked by background noise and inadvertently hot mikes and typically poor camera angles.
In his opening comments, Pete Najarian utterly shrugged off the supposed trade war, saying energy has been "pretty spectacular."
Pete even asserted, "Let's be honest: Trade war, negotiation, it's the same thing."
Josh Brown was taken aback, stating, "Trade war and negotiation are the same thing? ... We're literally having a trade war now. The negotiation didn't work out."
Brown then suggested that market reaction will produce a turnaround in policy approach: "We blow it up, and then his advisors tell him all the damage that's being caused, and then hopefully that leads to a second negotiation."
"Negotiation or war?" Pete asked.
"I would say we're in a war," Brown said.
"OK, so it sounds more like a negotiation," Pete shrugged.
Pete's right, and it's surprising to see Brown falling for White House mumbo jumbo. This is either a long-term, strategic plan (snicker) of revamping American trading relationships ... or a buncha jokers spouting undercooked political red meat because they're bored and have run out of other things to do and will quickly tire of this and move on to Birtherism or Obamacare or NFL national anthem or firing staffers or Supreme Court or infrastructure or defense contract prices.
This is as much of a trade war as the plot in ‘Star Wars: The Phantom Menace’
It wasn't just Pete Najarian whom Josh Brown was tangling with on Thursday's Halftime.
Joe Terranova demanded Brown explain the "ecinivic- oconovic (sic both) impact on the Chinese economy." (Alternate pronunciations are one reason we like Joe, by the way; that's how real human beings talk.)
"I don't care about the Chinese economy," Brown said.
"No, no-no-no-no, why don't you care about the Chinese economy," Joe said, adding the trade impact is "2 basis points!"
Judge weighed in with an understatement, saying of Donald Trump's approach, "Maybe it doesn't produce the worst fears." Brown tried to claim TPP is "definitely better" than the unilateral mess that's occurring now.
Steve Weiss told Judge that steel tariffs have been in place "while you were out for the last 3 (sic) weeks."
But, "This could get settled tomorrow," Weiss admitted.
Microphone problems dominated the session, even Judge at one point sounding like he was in a cave.
Weiss explained Micron's troubles with some kind of incomplete China-vs.-Taiwan (or something like that) argument. (This writer is long MU.) It sounded like whining about a stock that hasn't produced lately ("lately" meaning about several weeks) or rationalizing.
Weiss said Trump is "the only one who blinked" in all of this mess, citing ZTE.
Joe Terranova said the stock market should be paying more attention to China's lowering of the yuan.
Joe and Pete Najarian thundered that the White House "absolutely" does pay attention to stocks despite what Wilbur Ross said.
For Weiss, the trade war (along with everything else) gets back to his nonexistent boogeyman, "inflation" (snicker).
Pete Najarian observed, "Volumes have absolutely dried up recently."
On his Twitter account, Judge retweeted something from the George W. Bush Presidential Center about the mistake of tariffs. Wonder if the GWBPC also is recommending Harriet Miers for the Supreme Court.
Just pick the FAANGs (plus MSFT), Pete, it’s not any harder than that
Judge asked Pete Najarian, who had a great show in a great silver suit, for a summer "playbook."
Pete promised 3 things; the only problem was, he only spoke of 1 of them, stating, "I'd still wanna own the financials (snicker)" and talking about nothing except banks.
Steve Weiss admitted he's still got big banks. Judge made an interesting point to Weiss. "You're only liking the financials at this point because of your ownership. If you didn't own these stocks, would you run out and buy them? No way," Judge concluded.
"You're absolutely right," Weiss admitted, but he said he would go out and buy V and MA.
Weiss trumpeted biotech and AGN, a name he mentions once or twice on every show.
Joe Terranova declared that "energy stays strong" but said FAANG "continues to be your compass."
Pete was talking about how energy names haven't kept up with the gains in spot price of oil, which is just like how everyone even to this day talks about how the banks will someday trade at the same multiple of tangible book that they had in 2007.
It’s not where the 10-year is, it’s the pace of the change
It took 18 minutes of Thursday's Halftime before Joe Terranova suggested we "approach" an inverting yield curve later in the year.
Judge didn't seem to buy it, stating, "There's gonna be hell to pay in the stock market if that happens."
Josh Brown said if the yield curve shifts to barely above flat, the "sentiment damage" alone could make whatever fundamental damage exists irrelevant.
Steve Weiss said only 50% of the time has an inverted curve led to recession.
Judge curiously claimed that for stock investors, summer is "traditionally a good time to get those gains" (we're not sure that's true; nobody asked Kensho), and that this year, "all bets are off" in the fall because of midterms.
Joe Terranova said there's risk in November because it's a "binary outcome." Josh Brown said the summer of 2016 had more political uncertainty than probably any time we've seen, and the second half of that year turned out fine, so it's impossible to know how to play the political scene.
Brown said, in a long, drawn-out explanation that Judge should've shortened, that you couldn't find a single Wall Street strategist predicting a stock surge if Donald Trump won the election; Brown and Weiss agreed they all expected a market tumble if Trump won. That's exactly what happened — for about 3 hours.
Instead of paying a fortune for Fox assets, why doesn’t DIS pick up ROKU for peanuts and get its foot in the cord-cutting door?*
Judge's Call of the Day on Thursday's Halftime was BTIG raising FB to 275, "tied for the highest on the Street."
Joe Terranova noted, without mentioning Jeffrey Gundlach (that's our job), "I think anyone that's bet against Facebook has been wrong." (Well, when stocks are near all-time highs, that's generally the case.)
Joe again pointed to Facebook's dealings with Europe as a turning point in the rebound.
Josh Brown said, "Instagram is only getting stronger."
Pete Najarian predicted Instagram TV would be like "services for Apple."
Judge tried to claim with a straight face that "there still is regulatory risk though here." Steve Weiss said, "The market doesn't really seem to care."
Weiss admitted he'd pick Google over FB. He seemed to think if one does well, so will the other. (He was afraid to admit he's going solely by P.E. ratio, which is a poor way to trade stocks.)
Josh Brown said Google "escaped the election stuff" because Google+ was a failure. Brown claimed Waymo is "way, way undervalued." We're not so sure about that.
Joe claimed that Facebook has more potential in international growth. Brown and Weiss looked flabbergasted, with Brown wondering if FB can really go from 2 billion users to 4 billion.
Pete said he's in FB rather than GOOGL because of the faster growth in FB.
*This writer is long ROKU.
Karen in casual moment at Nasdaq on Closing Bell before 5 p.m. show
Josh Brown on Thursday's Halftime said SCHW is down "in line" with "pretty much all the financial stocks."
Brown explained that it's a "2-pronged thing" and actually said "people are worried (snicker) (so much for Judge's "euphoria" of several months ago) about the overall economy" and also that people are concerned about the business of lending money at a higher rate than deposits are getting (for those unsure how banks work).
Pete Najarian agrees with the Morgan Stanley buy-LVS recommendation.
August 77 TGT calls got Pete's attention.
Steve Weiss called UAA "egregiously overvalued." Judge claimed, "You're paying up for the growth." Weiss said, "What growth in Under Armour? It hasn't had growth in years. There is no growth."
Weiss is correct, except it has had some growth over the years, but certainly not last quarter. Judge was missing the point; what he meant to say was, "They're paying up because they think Kevin Plank might catch fire again and because like CMG there's still a cachet with the brand that most companies lack that can make the stock trade parabolically when things go right."
Josh Brown said the volatility in TSLA really stands out to him.
Joe Terranova said "technicals still look good" for QRVO.
It sounded like Jeff Kilburg and Jim Iuorio were saying copper might bounce, but we're not 100% sure.
Joe Terranova said he wouldn't buy FEYE before its Aug. 1 report. He'd look at PANW (one of his favorite names to mention) and FTNT instead.
Pete said he likes GILD but likes CELG even more.
Weiss said he likes BA but might wait "for the next trade flare-up." (He also made some kind of joke about how many minds he has.)
Pete's final trade was KKR. Josh Brown said SCHW. Weiss said EHIC. Joe said CRM and predicted it actually would take out 142. Josh Brown joked that the stock climbing another $2 would be like the "Miracle on Ice."
[Tuesday, July 3, 2018]
Great moments in CNBC history: Steve Liesman emcees pay-per-view coverage of Grateful Dead’s Fare Thee Well shows in Chicago on July 4th weekend in 2015
As this site marks 10 years during Independence Day week, it's only fitting to bring up a much bigger anniversary that took place a few years ago over this same holiday.
That would be the Grateful Dead's (supposedly) final concerts in Soldier Field July 3-4-5, 2015, marking 50 years of the band.
The broadcast coverage was emceed, masterfully, by CNBC's most famous Deadhead, Steve Liesman.
Yes, the performance was rickety, choppy, and sounded like a bunch of guys who've hardly played together. This was all about the vibe, as if Yankee fans got one more chance to see Ruth and Gehrig take the field in an exhibition.
It should probably be the Dead's end ... but like Joaquin Andujar used to say, yaneverknow.
Markets close early Tuesday; there's no Halftime or Fast Money due on the schedule until Thursday, but we'll let you know if anything happens. Celebrate safely.
Viewer evidently doesn’t appreciate MCC’s aggressive handling of Halftime conversations
Steve Weiss on Monday's Halftime Report unleashed a broadside at emerging markets, stating he thinks "the investing cycle of EEM is done to any great extent ... The losses are gonna mount up."
Asserting that everything's dollar-denominated or perceived to be, Weiss insisted, "Inflation's gonna drive our rates higher. There's no doubt about it."
Then, Weiss and Josh were just about to have an interesting discussion as to whether most people need a "balanced portfolio, long-only portfolio." But guest host Michelle Caruso-Cabrera cut in, "You were just talking about ever- energy, let's move on. Oil lower."
Chippy MCC refuses to discuss November elections just as Josh brings up Chuck Schumer
Joe Terranova on Monday's Halftime said, "I think it's the rest of the globe that you have to worry about" and seemed obsessed with the notion that the top 6 tech companies account for 84% of the overall S&P 500 gain. (Speaking of which, where's Dee Bosa been lately?)
Jim Lebenthal said the idea of trade wars being easy to win is a "falsity."
Jim said "there's no easy way out" of the global trade disputes. Steve Weiss suggested the market might be worried about Angela Merkel's status in the wake of immigration issues.
Joe said you should already be in small caps and should look at mid caps. Joe also pointed to big moves in the yuan.
Jim said the administration wants sanctions on Iran but also wants lower oil prices.
Plunging into the trade situation, Josh Brown claimed "there is one way out" of this but it's "political" and not "financial," and the answer is "the Democrats actually being competitive naturally- uh, nationally."
Guest host MCC said, "And that's another discussion for anoth- and that's for a completely different network. ... I don't wanna have a political discussion on this show."
Weiss: Michael Dell ‘one of the best CEOs in history’ (even though Carl once demanded a stub that wasn’t granted)
Joe Terranova on Monday's Halftime opined that the Dell story "underscores how brilliant David Faber is" because Joe had to read the story 3-4 times to figure out what's going on, but "David understands it."
We're not sure what David read or David said, but kudos to David. (Better he investigates something like that than whatever National Amusements is voting for or whatever John Malone thinks of the pot of gold of Fox entertainment content assets.)
Joe said Dell returning to public markets is "overall a good thing." Steve Weiss ramped that up big-time, stating Michael Dell "made a fortune" by going private, "He tried to educate all the investors, take the long-term view, and this is a good lesson, nobody would. ... He's one of the best CEOs in history."
Joe makes the first yield-curve-inverting-in-2018 call we’ve heard on the show
Guest host Michelle Caruso-Cabrera on Monday's Halftime said "Mr. New World," first time we've heard that in a long time. Later, she mentioned it a 2nd time and asked Joe, "Do people know what I mean by that? Terranova?"
Joe was more obsessed with the stock-market leadership of just a handful of tech stocks and suggested that continues; he also said to prepare for the market to go "to the worst possible place for your portfolio," at least for right now.
Joe also suggested the yield curve inverts in the 2nd half of the year.
Joe was given ample time to discuss some recent transactions, revealing he sold HON, ABBV, MNST and WTFC while he was taking off puts in the QQQ.
Jim Lebenthal said, "Joe, you're a great trader," but Jim was surprised Joe unloaded HON, which Jim said is part of the "so oversold" industrials.
Eventually Joe admitted, "Listen, I've been wrong on financials. ... I thought financials would re-accelerate."
Joe said MNST "just didn't move."
Steve Weiss said AGN is coming down, but he'd still add.
Meanwhile, at the end of the show, Gail Reid said she's raised her international stock allocation to "about 15% of our portfolios." Josh Brown asked if that's not underweight given that standard international stock allocations are around 40%. Reid said it's 15% of the portfolios, which in a typical example may be 50% stock and 50% bonds.
Overall, Reid said, her shop still broadly likes technology.
On rates, Reid said, "We may or may not invert this year, but we're ready in case it does."
Jim: Spectacular 6-month retail run just a ‘dead-cat bounce’
In a brief chat about the retail sector on Monday's Halftime Report, Jim Lebenthal made by far the most provocative statement.
"Let's call it what it is, OK, I'm sorry to say this, it's a dead-cat bounce," Jim said.
Sadly, we have to agree, though we wish we didn't. Some of the retailers, such as M and FL (this writer has no position in either), look like absolute disasters at this level; we're shocked that people on the shows who routinely pronounced this sector dead a year ago aren't warning people to stay out of it, but whatever.
The country needs department stores, and it needs malls. Probably not as many as it's got.
Jim referred to "Nordstroms" (sic plural) and said its results don't justify an outperform rating.
Joe Terranova said he thinks DDS is where the opportunity is. Josh Brown and Steve Weiss agreed that tax reform helped retailers. Brown touted SFIX.
Josh demands to know what regulations exist in the pipeline space
Jim Lebenthal on Monday's Halftime suggested oil either stays where it is or goes a bit higher, "but it doesn't go down."
Jim touted Royal Dutch Shell, all the big integrateds and mentioned SLB.
Joe Terranova said the administration needs to focus (snicker) on "bottlenecks" in America's oil production. Joe pointed out quirkiness in oil pricing and said it's a "near-term phenomena" and that traders in the short-term oil market "fully understand" what's going on.
Josh Brown asked, "Tell me why there are bottlenecks" if we're going to a "lawless" ecological policy. Jim answered that, "It's regulations to get pipelines approved."
"What regulations?" Brown asked.
"You need more regulations than you can possibly imagine," Jim explained.
Jim said he likes SLCA as a post-"bottleneck" trade.
Josh fails to note Mimi Rogers was in it too
Asked on Monday's Halftime about TSLA, Josh Brown chuckled and brought up the Michael Keaton movie "Gung Ho" (which is one we haven't seen) and wondered, "This is a $60 billion market cap, and they're throwing a party for manufacturing an amount of cars that Ford makes every hour."
Brown said there was a "huge reversal intraday" in TSLA.
Steve Weiss said Macau's what drives WYNN, and "these are trading stocks if there ever wa- ones (sic clumsy unclear grammar)," and the slide "makes sense" based on what's happening in China.
Weiss said Chinese Internet stocks are getting killed in a "sympathy play" with the trade dispute though they basically don't operate in America.
Jim Lebenthal asserted GT is a "value trap" and advised, "Do not touch this stock."
Pete Najarian beamed in to say September 46 ORCL (Zzzzzz) calls got bought.
Jim said he sees 2nd-half value in energy and financials. He also mentioned DKS and SBUX. Weiss predicted "banks do well," and, "I also like health care." Josh Brown said "we remain overweight international."
Jim said INTC, NVDA, MU would be the best chip stocks to own for 5 years, but if there's a trade war, the sector will get "hit hard, very hard." (This writer is long MU.)
Asked for a 6-month target on JPM, Josh Brown said he doesn't do price targets.
Weiss said "until they have the fundamentals go against 'em," you don't sell NFLX.
Weiss' final trade was XBI. Josh Brown said TWTR. Jim said EA. Joe said WFC.
Ten. Years!
Time.
Flies.
We don't actually know the exact date this site surfaced on the World Wide Web, only that it was the end of June 2008.
Somehow, we're still here.
Happy 4th ... and happy trading!