[CNBCfix Fast Money Review Archive — November 2021]
Still waiting for Judge to tell us what happened to ‘Fire & Ice’
Following the lead of the president of the United States, Jim Lebenthal on Monday's (11/29) Halftime Report said "Omnicron" (sic pronunciation).
And Steve Weiss said "Omnicron" (sic).
And Joe Terranova said "Omnicron" (sic).
Jim Lebenthal said Omicron happens to be an "aftershock" of the onset of COVID and curiously said it is "not unlike the way the European Union threatened to blow apart after the financial crisis." (That's an interesting parallel that we hadn't thought of.)
Weiss said he's concerned about whether Omicron "lessens, uh, what we've seen as an easing of the supply chain."
Joe said he "absolutely" believes "the Street is underinvested in health care."
Weiss said he sold some MRNA calls "way above the market," which he "didn't put in my disclosures." But then at the end of the show, MRNA was his Final Trade.
Ed Yardeni told Judge, "I think the market's goin' higher," predicting 4,800 for this year, 5,200 for next year and 5,500 for 2023. Yardeni called the end of last week a "panic attack."
Yardeni mentioned durable goods indicators and wondered if there's "hype" surrounding supply-chain issues.
Late in the hour, Josh Brown joined the show to make an interesting point about TWTR's market cap (which has grown) vs. its share price (which is flat) since IPO. Judge wondered aloud how TWTR can ever grow its stock price if it hasn't done it in the media environment that we're in and especially during the previous presidency.
‘Value’ investors gloating about Cathie Wood’s misfortune again
It's been a bit of a rocky month for prominent growth stocks, something panelists on Wednesday's (11/24) Halftime Report couldn't wait to pounce on.
Steve Weiss was asked by guest host Frank Holland about Cathie Wood. Weiss said he uses ARK as a portfolio hedge and even cracked, "This is very kind of Cathie to put together that ETF."
Then he said, "I've got a lot of respect for Cathie, she's a great investor and built a great business, but it seems what gets you assets and what gets you elected are the same thing: hyperbole, and taking a long-term view."
"Hyperbole, and taking a long-term view." Those are 2 things that really seem to go together.
Weiss, whose comments are often reflective of only the previous 3 hours of the tape, said there's "a world that can happen" with growth stocks, which (we don't know what that means) apparently is his warning against buying hot or recently hot tech stocks. Then Weiss gushed about "opportunities in lower-valued stocks" because "there's less risk and similar upside." (Right, Citigroup has "similar" upside to Netflix.)
Joe Terranova claimed that Cathie's portfolio is "so highly correlated" to whether there's inflation or deflation and interest-rate direction (that's a lot of things) (as if no other stocks are affected by those variables).
Jenny Harrington insisted that rising rates have a "really big effect on people." (Yes, she followed that up with "stock-picker's market.") (Translation: When Cathie Wood makes money it's a tech bubble; when "value" investors have a good week, it's a "stock-picker's market.")
Jenny, who may have the best hair on CNBC and looked stunning on Wednesday, said "mayyyyyybe" she'll get interested in PYPL, COIN and ZM "if they get a little bit cheaper," which she said means "another 30% or more." (This writer is long PYPL and ZM.)
Joe offers ‘all due respect to the president’ before criticizing SPR release
On Wednesday's (11/24) pre-Thanksgiving Halftime Report, Steve Weiss said it's almost a "tick-by-tick" correlation between the 10-year yield and growth stock performance.
Weiss claimed one of those things that CNBCers often claim, that the day's or week's economic reports give the Fed "great cover" to be more hawkish, which it never is.
Joe Terranova said that he expects the market to "experience a lot of tax-loss selling" going into year-end, so he sees a "bifurcated performance in technology" before 2021 is over.
Jenny Harrington gloated to Weiss about the energy trade. Weiss insisted oil is a "commodity" and not a "growth industry" and in fact is a "shrinking industry" and congratulated Jenny but said it might not be a long-lived trade.
Jenny talked up a new investment in SBLK.
Joe Terranova said that "with all due respect to the president," he thinks that regarding the administration's oil move, "there is not a willingness to resolve the problem as it relates to the supply-demand imbalance that exists." Joe said it's about "incentivizing production" and "reversing some of the regulatory, uh, actions." Out of all that, Joe said the name to own is PXD.
Jon Najarian, who had a quiet show, admitted he owned GPS, which was "just a wipeout," but he apparently didn't own JWN.
Weiss did get in a couple good jabs about Jim Lebenthal, something about khakis.
Weiss said he's surprised at the "carnage" in JWN and GPS and also the selloff in DKS, which he called "noise." He made DKS his Final Trade.
Jenny suggested JBLU will get to $2 earnings, and "you put a 10 times multiple on it," it's a $20 stock. (Translation: Some multiples are obvious; others are way too high.) Weiss, who twists and turns on the airline sector, expressed encouragement but said it'll take business travel to bring the airlines fully back, "and that's just taking longer to come back." (This writer is long several airlines but not JBLU.)
So much for ‘price is truth’
Before we backtrack to Thursday's (11/18) notable Halftime Report clash between Steve Weiss and Josh Brown (see below), we took note of an interesting comment Monday (11/22) about stock prices.
Jim Lebenthal said he bought RIVN puts because "the emperor is not wearing any clothes."
Jim also said, "This is a stock that should be well below a hundred on a market-valuation basis."
Let's think about that for a moment ... what is a "market-valuation basis"?
Is AMZN overpriced on a "market-valuation basis"?
We'll see if we can figure it out.
Jon Najarian said it's an "unfair comparison" to put RIVN's market cap against F or GM.
Meanwhile, on the subject of Jerome Powell, Judge and Steve Liesman seemed to think the Fed chief decision was refreshingly apolitical. Judge said it would've been an "interesting precedent" if Biden didn't pick Powell "because a bunch of political activists, if you will, uh, on one side vs. the other decided they just didn't want Powell."
Liesman said the fact Biden didn't pick someone from his own party for the sake of choosing his own party caused many to "breathe a sigh of relief."
Judge said the "narrative" is that the Powell renomination is "pretty much a slam dunk."
Meanwhile, Jim Lebenthal predicted the new COVID wave will be "shallow and short" because of pills and treatments.
Jim touted "reopening" stocks but said one risk is that in January, "the buyers are all bought out." (And we're guessing that by the time November is over, we will have heard Jim Lebenthal say at least a dozen times that the market's going to be great until it "crescendoes" in late January, and we will have heard Pete Najarian say at least a dozen times that the corporate backing of Rivian is going to keep giving the stock a lift.)
Jon Najarian said he was cutting loose his Blink calls.
Steve Weiss tried to talk Jim out of CRM, saying "this valuation is egregious."
On Friday's (11/19) Halftime, Kevin O'Leary said that whatever trends exist in stocks, "They're never getting out of tech."
Whatever happened to Apple TV?
Thursday's (11/18) Halftime Report included another clash between Josh Brown and Steve Weiss.
We figured it had to be 1 of 2 things.
Either Brown's "shtick" (that's Jim Lebenthal's term, not ours) is wearing thin around the Investment Committee ... or someone had been peeing in Weiss' Cheerios all week.
Anyway, Brown had casually mentioned Apple's cash pile and correctly suggested that the company needs new places to put that cash, and that in the car space, it would compete only at the high end.
When Weiss got a chance, he insisted, "That's not Apple's plan, OK, to spend $200 billion to build a car."
Judge cut him off, stating Brown wasn't saying AAPL is going to spend $200 billion on a car.
Brown said he was the victim. "This guy just wants to argue with you no matter what I say," Brown said.
Judge ordered the mikes cut, then declared, "We're not dealing with nonsense, all right?"
Eventually, Weiss was able to say the "informed" answer was that "it's not in their DNA," and that AAPL prefers "partnerships" with car manufacturers than starting a car program from scratch.
Judge was really interested in the newest FundStrat call (so why won’t he tell us what happened to ‘Fire & Ice’?)
The hot topic of Wednesday's (11/17) Halftime Report was the FundStrat report about how this week could be a near-term "turning point" in the stock market.
To discuss this call was not the guy who made the call, FundStrat's head of technical strategy, but FundStrat's honcho Tom Lee.
Judge asked Lee if he agreed with his own shop's call. Lee said it "warrants us warning clients." (Translation: Don't agree, but this way I'm off the hook if there's a pullback.)
Lee's only evidence for this kind of toppiness was stuff people have known about for literally years (who's the Fed chief and COVID) and the most Lee could say is that there could be a "speed bump."
Lee claimed there's "a macro uncertainty now with regard to Fed chair."
Judge said the new call feels like a "real turn" (snicker), even though Lee basically distanced himself from it. Lee said whatever happens is a "buyable pullback."
Judge referred to Lee as "TL."
Steve Weiss actually said with a straight face that December's CPI and PPI could be "very destabilizing numbers for the market."
Weiss said he "pounced" on more TTEC.
Weiss took up Lucid and other hot car stocks and whether they could mark a market bubble. Weiss said there's "a lot of froth," but the euphoria is "rather isolated." Even though the cars are impressive, "They can never grow into these valuations," Weiss concluded.
For the 4th time in about a week, Jim Lebenthal predicted a market "crescendo" by late January.
Judge congratulated Joe Terranova on 1 year of JOET.
Judge still won’t tell us what’s happened with ‘Fire & Ice’
On Tuesday's (11/16) Halftime Report, Judge for the 4th or 5th time (must be an SEC rule) (the financial regulators, not the football conference with Alabama and Auburn) pointed out that Jon Najarian bought his RIVN shares on the open market. Doc said he's out of the stock now but that he bought the 160 calls and sold the 190 calls.
We have no idea whether the stock is going up or down. (This writer has no position in RIVN.) However, it is kind of refreshing to hear panelists excited about a name even though it's got a high P.E. ratio, unlike the sizable subset of "Investment Committee" members who automatically write off exciting stocks and are basically practicing closet indexing and could save a lot of time by just buying the SPY.
On the 5 p.m. Fast Money, in fact, Steve Grasso cited the "Amazon backstop" as some kind of ongoing lift to RIVN shares, though "I do believe the stock will eventually come back in." Pete Najarian agreed the "Amazon backstop" is "huge" and said he "can't see" why Ford would want to exit the name.
Meanwhile, back on Halftime, Bryn Talkington spoke about $30 trillion in national debt and suggested the Fed can't afford to raise rates very high, which sounds good for tech stocks but not if GDP is stifled. (Yes, we had trouble following the narrative also.) "I think the next 6 months could be rocky for tech," Bryn concluded, but she wouldn't sell stock, rather she'd sell calls.
Jon Najarian trumpeted his favorite. "Microsoft is THE best tech stock in the land. No question about it," Doc asserted, saying he's not planning to sell.
Josh Brown singled out SNOW as "a very symbolic stock," and "it happens to be working really really well right now."
Jim Lebenthal said the best isn't over yet for QCOM; he said it should be $200 now with a 20 multiple. Judge said Jim said it should be a $200 stock "for the 4th time" (that one doesn't have anything to do with disclosure). Jason Snipe also backed the stock.
Bryn Talkington said that over the last 10 years, energy — compared with tech and the S&P — has been an "asset destructor." However, she added, "I do believe in mean reversion though, especially when it comes to financial markets" ... which always gets the Spidey Sense tingling and quite frankly is a very controversial comment ... and anyway, Bryn thinks there's some "catalysts" in the energy space.
Doc said young people are "shunning investments like gold" and turning to crypto. "Crypto's the new inflation hedge (snicker)," Judge agreed.
Josh Brown said he unloaded VZ, which he called "money being put to sleep." But he said company management is "excellent" at compensating themselves, a couple of good lines. Brown said he has bought more UBER. (This writer is long UBER.) Brown also said he took a "small position" in CHPT.
On Tuesday's 5 p.m. Fast Money, Karen Finerman articulately described what might've driven the last few days of PTON trading and complained, "They could've raised money SO many other times at SO much higher prices."
What happened to ‘Fire & Ice’?
On Monday's (11/15) Halftime Report, Jim Lebenthal reiterated to guest host Sully the year-end forecast Jim's already made at least once in the last couple weeks.
"I think this rally continues and crescendoes through year-end and probably through mid-January to late January," Jim said. "For me it's very reminiscent of 2017."
"The next 2 months should be pretty clear sailing," Jim asserted, questioning "who wants to sell?" and post gains on their tax forms.
Then again, Jenny Harrington said her office is "actually harvesting capital losses," though it only has "just a few," to offset some gains.
But she said if tax rates are higher next year, then those losses will be more valuable next year, so there's a "couple different angles" on that subject. (And if we had a dollar for every prediction on CNBC about "taxes are going up next year" that we've heard, we'd be richer than Elon Musk.) (Well maybe not Musk. But close.)
Joe Terranova told Sully, "tough loss" by the Chargers to the Vikings. Joe said there's a "tranquil environment" that's "warranted" into year-end. Sully made a good joke — the last time Judge had a good joke was ages ago — that Joe would have "transitory" audio problems for the next 30 minutes.
Pete Najarian said he's holding onto RIVN and insisted he's "not looking to take a profit." Sully suggested, "You can see maybe a point where the 10% stake in Rivian becomes as valuable as the other 90% of Ford. Not yet. But it's certainly not impossible."
Jim had a great line, asking Sully "what 1982 bands we're gonna be listening to if inflation goes higher," suggesting Donna Summer or Queen; it all cracked up Pete. Of course, we don't know which band was Pete's favorite back then because he'll only acknowledge Guns 'N Roses (which wasn't formed in 1982) as his favorite.
"ESG is inflationary in its nature," asserted Joe Terranova, who said the "quickest fix" for the White House is to "roll back" some of those China tariffs.
Jim again suggested QCOM could get to $200 "this year."
Jenny Harrington bought JBLU.
The call of the day was a grand 8% upside in CVX.
Brown to Weiss: ‘I know you think you’re scoring points here’
It was so voluminous, it took us days to complete a post about it.
Maybe that's a bit of hyperbole. But Friday's (11/12) Halftime Report kicked into high gear when Judge asked Josh Brown to opine on the Wedbush downgrade of NVDA, which was based on valuation.
Brown said it's "one of the most ridiculous things I've ever read," like "Lewis Carroll doing semiconductor stock research."
Then Brown mocked the price targets involved in the downgrade before veering into what this page considers Red Herring Territory while arguing that NVDA longs don't need to sell because of valuation, with a caveat: "If this stock has grown to become an outsized position within your portfolio to the point where a down-20% day after an earnings disappointment, which is entirely feasible, would hurt you, then yes, you should take some off," Brown said.
(Helpful tip: NVDA shares don't care about what's in the rest of your portfolio.)
Judge quoted Jim Cramer saying that people should own NVDA, not trade it, and as for selling and buying around earnings, Jim thinks, according to Judge, "It's too hard. That's a game I can't play."
"I mean, Cramer can't play that game, who the heck can play that game," Judge concluded.
Steve Weiss moved in, with sharp elbows, stating, "Cramer's playing that game with Walmart, he took some off, and he's gonna get back in."
But then Weiss got to what he really wanted to flag: "What Josh said, to me, is the scariest thing about this market ... To say that you should not have any investment discipline on valuation. ... We take profits all the time. ... I applaud the analyst for selling it. ... He's got a discipline. ... You can't criticize somebody for having a different discipline than you have. Period."
Brown responded as he always does, that someone has misquoted him: "I agree with Steve, but I didn't say any of those words that he just put into my mouth," Brown said.
"I paraphrise (sic pronunciation). I took what you said in 15 minutes in 2 minutes," Weiss said.
"No you invented a straw man to argue against," Brown said, as Jon Najarian clapped. "And I- And I actually agree with the point that you made. But I didn't say valuation doesn't matter. You like to say that."
"One thing you're not is a straw man," Weiss said, as the two talked over each other.
"Well you like to say that. But I don't ever say valuation doesn't matter," Brown insisted.
Brown complained the analyst cut NVDA to a neutral, and Brown said, "I don't know what neutral means," though that wasn't his initial "Lewis Carroll" gripe.
Brown added, "He raised his target — listen to me now — from 220 to 300 and then said I'm downgrading it. That's what's ridiculous to me."
Actually, it's not ridiculous. What WOULD be ridiculous is if he raised his target to $400 and downgraded it. If he thinks the stock is not going up but will hover around 300-ish, then 300 and neutral should be his target.
"And I'm NOT saying valuation doesn't matter. I'm saying the valuation on this stock historically has not and currently should not correspond to the way we're valuing a run-in (sic)-the-mill semiconductor company that is not involved in the end markets that Nvidia is involved in," Brown said.
"You just said valuation doesn't matter in Nvidia, but it matters elsewhere," Weiss insisted.
"No I didn't. No I didn't," Brown said.
"You just said that Josh. Sit back. Fewer words Josh you can get the point across," Weiss said.
"That has yet to come out of my mouth. Listen, I know you think you're scoring points here. I agree with you that valuation matters. ... It's been expensive every day of my life and your life (sic last 6 words redundant) for the last 5 years. It's never been cheap," Brown said, adding, "That is not actually been the determinant of where the share price goes."
OK, so what do we have here.
Brown's knocking of the downgrade was silly. However, he didn't say valuation doesn't matter. He actually suggested that NVDA deserves a higher range of valuation than semiconductor stocks. ... But he never suggested that there's a range that could be too high, and he doubly insisted that NVDA always has an "expensive" valuation, which left the implication — not a statement, but implication — that it doesnn't matter what the valuation is, only the technicals.
Brown happens to be the only person on the show who will bluntly state that P.E. ratio is not a catalyst nor predictor of stock direction. This page puts it another way: It's an effect typically mistaken as a cause.
Weiss, on the other hand, successfully defended the analyst but gave the viewers no help. Is the stock a buy, or isn't it?
Whatever the price targets, NVDA figures to be a buy as long as we're in a risk-on (when did you last hear that term?) market.
At the end of the Weiss-Brown debate, Clapper Doc concluded that "if anybody has a little bit of acumen" to "keep rolling your calls up (snicker)."
What’s MRNA’s valuation?
The nation's inflation problem had trouble rearing its ugly head on Friday's (11/12) Halftime Report.
Josh Brown stated, "If you're being reasonable about the inflation situation, you understand that the Fed is now on track to slow down what it's been doing, they told us they would, you also understand that a lot of the imbalances related to the reopening are starting to ease."
Kari Firestone asserted, "We really have a glass half full, and by that I mean not so much inflation, type of environment."
Steve Weiss said Dave Tepper said that if interest rates stay where they're at, "he thinks Nasdaq could be up another 10%."
Then again, "Labor costs are not transitory," Weiss asserted.
After lengthy explanation (but not like the NVDA debate), Jon Najarian said he's "all the more comfortable" with his tech bet into year-end.
Like a lot of people this week, Josh Brown said of PYPL, "This stock is a buy, it's going up," and gave a lengthy description of its total addressable market. (This writer is long PYPL.)
Kari Firestone thanked Josh and agreed it's "really attractive here." Kari agreed with Josh that PYPL could be a $1 trillion company; she said CRM could be too.
Judge pointed to the current price of PYPL and said comments by Brown and Kari "are definitely moving that stock."
Judge didn’t ask anyone if Bob Chapek will be Disney’s CEO in 3 years
On Thursday's (11/11) Halftime Report, which featured another exceptional tribute to veterans from Judge via Jim Lebenthal and Degas Wright.
The stock story of the day was DIS, which appears to be in a slump. Jim said to hang onto it despite Thursday's selloff. "I'm in it. You should be in it too."
Judge asked if there are "longer-term issues" such as "saturation" that Disney must "wrestle with." Jim said the growth in Disney+ can't sustain what it's done for 2 years but insisted the spending will pay off.
Pete Najarian said he was waiting for a "flush day" like Thursday and said that "it feels like that Netflix moment," when people said it was "saturated" but NFLX went on to "absolutely take over internationally."
Pete though said NFLX has "much greater pricing power" than Disney+, saying the latter's new supercheap 1-month trial "kinda feels like a bit of a gimmick."
Jon Najarian said he held DIS calls into the earnings, "they're dust." (Translation: If we were to "measure the risk" in Doc's trade, we'd say it was 100%.)
Jim said he has taken a "small position" in PYPL, his first move into fintech. He said he'll buy more later but warned about "tax-loss selling" into year-end. (This writer is long PYPL.)
Bryn Talkington said 203 in PYPL is a "great entry point."
If Jim had spent all those show minutes of the last 6 years buying TSLA instead of talking about how great GM is, he’d be Warren Buffett by now
Wednesday's (11/10) Halftime Report, in which Judge kept promising the first trade of RIVN but never delivered, further revealed how people can somehow take stocks personally.
For example, there's a panelist on the show who, every episode, is absolutely adamant about how great and how undervalued General Motors is and how he'd never pick up a hotshot car company over GM.
And all that time, he's been trumpeting the wrong carmaker.
On Wednesday, panelists and commentators took turns on Rivian, and each panelist's commentary was exactly what you'd expect from that person.
The most interesting, thus, was CNBC's auto/aerospace ace Phil LeBeau, who stated, "The reaction that I get to Rivian is similar to the reaction I got when I brought up Tesla to executives, away from the public bravado, 'Oh Elon Musk doesn't know what he's doing,' I'm talking about 4 or 5 years ago. Privately, they would say, 'That's really interesting.' I hear the same thing about Rivian."
Phil's also heard from other auto execs that Rivian is "the real deal."
Pete Najarian, who sometimes warns against "no P.E." stocks and other times gushes about stocks like RIVN, did the latter on Wednesday. Pete got a RIVN allocation; he said AMZN owning 20% of the name is a "great backstop."
For his part, Joe Terranova said "I'm not necessarily sure" that you should "reach" for RIVN at the opening.
Regarding Ford's stake in Rivian, Phil said, "I do not believe that Ford is going to hang around for a long time," though he's not saying Ford will flip its shares "in the next day."
Joe, though, said "absolutely" Ford will stay with Rivian, suggesting it would "look very poorly" if Ford cashed in so close to the IPO.
Phil responded that he'd be "surprised" if the Ford-Rivian relationship lasts "a real long time."
Which brings us to Jim "GM Is The Greatest Stock of All Time" Lebenthal, who predicted, "I think Rivian is gonna pop today, and then it's gonna quickly fizzle."
Jim likened the stock to "the emperor wearing no clothes."
Jim concluded, "I will take General Motors over Rivian any day of the month."
That's fine. But we took just a quick look, hardly comprehensive (snicker), into our archives and found Jim was touting GM as far back as July 2015. How has GM done compared with TSLA since then?
Jim's constant, frankly tiresome advocacy of this stock is like Dolphins fans for the last 20 years insisting, "We're gonna be better than the Patriots!!!" Sure they will, at some point. For the last 20 years, they have not. That matters.
Jim may well be correct about RIVN. Over the last 6 years, he picked the wrong car company. In fact, for all the warnings about P.E. ratio risk, Jim's favorite car company went bankrupt just a dozen years ago.
Anyway, Jenny Harrington, who also insists on believing that P.E. ratio is a cause and not an effect, said Jim made "an absolutely perfect beautiful summary of the whole situation." Of course, Jenny claims the market cap of RIVN can't be "justified." (Who, again, is in charge of "justifying" a stock valuation? Gary Gensler?)
Judge said "there's some snark on Twitter" about Cathie Wood deeming Rivian as being overvalued.
Asked later about Rivian, Jenny said viewers need to be "very careful" about "not letting the emotion totally override the fundamentals." What kind of emotion did viewers have when General Motors was going to zero?
Jeremy Siegel told Judge he doesn't see "general market overpricing" and said RIVN and EV stocks are "still a small fraction" of the overall market.
Siegel complained that the Fed has "not been serious" about inflation.
As for the market as a whole, Jim Lebenthal told Judge, "I'm very much all in," but in "late January," expect to find some volatility, "much like you did in early 2018."
Ah. So we're already starting the 2nd-year-of-Biden-will-be-like-2nd-year-of-Trump Theory. (Except if everyone believes it and starts believing everyone else is going to believe it, then they'll start selling in December, and you'll still be too late. See how this works?)
Jim claimed the DIS quarter already has been "derisked" (snicker) going into earnings.
Joe Terranova said he got funds to buy ABBV by selling DOCU, which he wasn't going to let become a loser. (This writer is long DOCU.)
Pete Najarian did double duty, appearing on the 5 p.m. Fast Money, where he said "boughten" (sic) and "gingerously" (sic).
Doc suggests Joe, Weiss
should cool their JETS
Joe Terranova opened Monday's (11/8) Halftime Report stating he was exiting NFLX because "on Friday, October 29th, Netflix recorded a high at 691. Thereafter (snicker), the momentum signal began to dramatically weaken and you had 5 consecutive days where you had a price failure to exceed that October 29th high."
Meanwhile, Steve Weiss, who wasn't asked about MRNA (or whether it's the "core" account or the "trading" account), said he's buying F, because "Ford owns 12% of Rivian."
Weiss also is buying more SWKS and QRVO, saying it's a "gift" to be able to add lower.
Judge said Joe and Weiss both bought the JETS ETF, though Jon Najarian was hinting that it may be "a little late" to do the reopening trades. (This writer is long UAL, AAL and SAVE.)
Joe said he "clearly" sees a reopening as well as retail "foot traffic." Doc said since the New York-London corridor was announced, UAL is already up 11%, AAL is up 14% and JBLU is up 8.3%. "I like taking profits on those kind of moves," Doc explained.
Joe said "I'm sorry," he disagrees, and added that UAL was $90 before the pandemic, so there's "still plenty of upside potential." Joe also touted the return of the "corporate client."
Weiss asserted that UAL isn't going to 90, but he said airline ticket prices are "out of sight" and "the airplanes are full." Weiss said it's a "perfect supply-demand situation for the airlines."
Doc grumbled that he thinks business travel will take "significantly longer to recover."
Later, gushing about all his EV-related options gambits, Doc told Joe and Steve that airlines aren't getting money from the infrastructure bill, while all these names linked to electric cars are getting "direct input." As Weiss pointed out, "it's not as if they're unknown secrets," and he said he'd wait for a pullback.
At that point, even Judge of all people seemed to be raising skepticism of this program feature, mentioning EVGO's spike to Doc and asking for a timeline; "I don't want them to get in as you're getting out."
"No, and I don't intend on getting out of this one," Najarian insisted.
Liz Young claimed, "Obviously there's a rotation going on." Liz also claimed there's been a "momentum shift" since August-September (evidently stocks' surge of the last 5 weeks has demonstrated that).
Liz also stated "the market is a little ahead of itself" in terms of its forecast for rate hikes.
No word from Weiss
on MRNA’s latest stumble
Friday's (11/5) Halftime Report was a celebration of stocks, beginning with Jim Lebenthal, who stated, "I just feel great. And I feel- I felt great all week."
Jim contended that the reopening trades "still have a long way to go."
Rich Saperstein predicted a "rebirth in the economy" and declared the country's "right in front of a secular growth period."
One person who might not've been feeling great on Friday was Kari Firestone, who drew the unfortunate assignment (or maybe it was her own request) to dial in and discuss owning PTON.
Acknowledging the pain, Kari asserted, "We're still in the very early days of connected fitness."
"I don't wanna excuse this," Kari concluded, "but the stock right now trades at a level well below where it was as I said, you know, early times in the pandemic."
That's an interesting comment. That's the historic-price argument. PTON traded Friday at roughly the same price as late June 2020.
If this were AAPL or MSFT or FB, that argument would make a lot of sense. When it's a stock benefitting from perhaps the apex of the shutdowns in early summer 2020, you have to wonder, as Judge did ...
Judge suggested to Kari, "This might have been the ultimate moment-in-time stock. Maybe it's not. But it might be."
"That's a point that one can always make about a company that has a, an enormous rise in valuation and then comes down to earth somewhat," Kari said. "Companies trip, and that doesn't mean it's the end."
No, it doesn't. But we're talking fitness here. An industry where the customers are notoriously fickle.
Judge persisted that other companies that "trip" haven't had the "fundamental landscape" of their business altered like what may be happening with PTON.
Judge could've persisted with a stronger argument: What does PTON offer that's so great that people who have gym options will continue to use PTON?
Maybe there's a good answer for that, or maybe there isn't.
While Kari dialed in, we heard nothing from Steve Weiss, whose favorite stock, MRNA, actually plunged to $211 on Friday.
Closing the day at $236, MRNA is actually less than half its 52-week high, $497, on Aug. 10. Weiss' enthusiasm for MRNA remains the show's Call of the Year in a landslide. Back in November 2020, he was describing the shares as a "gift" under $100, a phenomenal assessment.
This page is not rooting against Weiss or any other MRNA longs. It hopes all succeed. (This writer has no position in MRNA.)
Rather, this has become a very interesting story. Interesting, because after making a fantastic call for months on this stock, Weiss and others might've gotten over their skis ... and in fact, MRNA could have similar headwinds of PTON mentioned above.
In fact, the slide since early August has been significant. Yet Weiss has recommended the stock all year on gains or pullbacks, including most recently on Thursday, even after he said he talked to management and would talk to management again later in the day. (Apparently management didn't see $211 coming on Friday.) On Nov. 1, Weiss was talking about adding MRNA as a "trading position" because his "core position" is "so large already."
On Aug. 9, with the stock trading in the 480 range, Judge asked Weiss whether MRNA holders should trim. The correct answer, we now know, was "Yes, short this thing immediately." Instead, Weiss' answer was this: "It depends how big a portion of your portfolio it is and how much risk can you tolerate."
OK. For the umpteenth time, stocks don't care how much risk you can tolerate. It was either a buy, or it wasn't. Could it have gone from 480 to 680? Sure, if it improved its COVID vaccine or was also curing cancer or the flu or heart disease. But actually, it's a biotech highly tethered (Joe Terranova's favorite word) to the pandemic that, at that time, was up about 5-fold in 9 months.
It certainly could've gone up into the 500s. But it also was capable of a tumble.
It's completely true that people assuredly bailed on MRNA in the 280s in July when their gains were already huge and it must've seemed like this stock couldn't do any better, and Weiss was right then to stay long.
But those 280 bailers are an important angle. People always feel like they "blow it" if they sell a stock way too soon. But that's quite possibly better than having tunnel vision like Weiss, who seems to think (based on his frequent statements on buying the pullback) that the day-to-day performance of the stock is a referendum on his own investment aptitude.
He made a great call on a very volatile sector. Maybe he should've been "dating" the stock rather than "marrying" it.
Meanwhile, on Friday's Halftime, Tom Lee, the star guest, said the bond market was coaxing the rally in equities. Lee stated that "many" of his clients are sitting on "very uncomfortable cash positions" in hopes of a 10% pullback and presumably are throwing in the towel on that pullback.
Tom said, "I think 4,800 is maybe the minimum" and suggested 5,000 is most likely "early" 2022.
Rich Saperstein said he trimmed MSFT because "it just got too big" and "we had to trim it down." (Here we go again — stocks don't care about what other stocks or cash are in people's portfolios.)
Josh Brown wasn't really on the show but made a video appearance to say the moves in LYV and SHAK were "very, very justified."
Explaining why she bought COIN, Bryn Talkington said, "I really believe that crypto is in the early days."
Judge didn’t ask if this was the ‘trading’ account or the ‘core’ account
On Thursday's (11/4) Halftime Report, Steve Weiss dialed in to start the show by explaining his response to MRNA's tough day: "I've added actually right down here." (This writer has no position in MRNA.)
Weiss said his "schmuck insurance" in the form of way-below-market puts "helped ease the blow a little bit."
Weiss explained that with these kinds of "high-beta" or "highly volatile" companies, "you have bumps along the road."
"I've spoken to the company once today. I'll be speaking to 'em again at 2:30," Weiss told Judge.
Judge concluded, "It really underscores the risk of a 1-product company."
"It's 1 commercial product; it's not 1 product," Weiss insisted.
"They have 1 commercial product. You know what I mean," Judge insisted.
"Right. But, you know what Scott, that's what biotech investing is about," Weiss said.
This is one of those days when some condescending folks will come on CNBC throughout the day and warn, "This is why you have to do your homework." But obviously very few people have done as much homework on this name as Weiss, and "doing your homework" doesn't prevent stocks — especially ones that have quadrupled in less than a year — from taking a dive.
We have no idea where MRNA is going. But recalling the Steve Grasso/Karen Finerman 3-Day Rule, we wonder if Weiss' knee-jerk reaction to buy more might've been premature. (We also wonder why he's able to buy more if he was just recently using "risk management" to keep his position from becoming outsized.)
Meanwhile, Jim Lebenthal took a victory lap on QCOM, predicting "200 and above," perhaps even before year-end. Jim had a curious summary of his gushing take, stating there are "nothing but reasons to be breathless." ("Breathless," by the way, is a famous movie by Jean-Luc Godard.)
Jenny Harrington proclaimed, "I think it really is a stock-picker's market." On a day the S&P climbed to still new highs.
Rob Sechan said he's "overweight quality tech," namely MSFT and GOOGL, which he said are "less geared to inflation mishaps."
Jonathan Krinsky dialed in to suggest it may be too late to chase the Nasdaq. "We just think, you know, we've seen this before, and you tend to get, uh, uh, pullback or consolidation from- from these types of, uh, metrics," Krinsky said.
Jim says being argumentative is kinda Josh’s ‘shtick’ (a/k/a If anyone thinks Jay Powell will be one-and-done if stocks are at all-time highs ... or because the government is adding debt ... then ...)
Typically, Halftime Report episodes airing an hour before Fed statements are pretty useless.
Jon Najarian, in fact, on Wednesday (11/3) warned about all the possibilities of "air pockets" if Jay Powell either offended the bond vigilantes or caused Joe Biden to maybe not appoint him. (We've been struggling with that terminology for a while. It's not really an "appointment," because Powell was already appointed. But it's not purely a "reappointment" either, because Biden never appointed him. Neither one sounds right. Oh well.)
Doc even mentioned "that debt being piled on" (snicker) could be a reason for Biden not to tap Powell for another term.
Steve Weiss bluntly and correctly said he didn't see the taper doing "anything" to his portfolio.
Judge had opened the show by asking Joe Terranova if the tech-stock "reckoning" — which Judge said "some have talked about" (snicker) — is going to happen with higher rates.
Joe said he thinks it'll happen only in a "bifurcated" (snicker) way in which the megacap tech stocks will be OK, but a lot of "higher-valuation names" will be challenged. (Guess that may include Keith Meister's life-sciences SPAC spree.)
Joe said "very happily," he's out of Z. That's curious, because hours later on the 5 p.m. show, Karen Finerman was gushing at the buying opportunity.
Doc pronounced Capri Holdings as "Cop-ree."
Weiss said he was adding to XPO.
Joe said he ditched the RSX, which was "a way to get exposure to the European gas crisis." If only he ditched that stale background room that he's in. (Note: It's totally fine to keep the numbers and mementoes; it's the fact the room has the space-feel not of a classroom but of a large closet, with a white board that isn't being used for anything unless Joe's conducting seminars.)
Leslie Picker, who was stunning, asked Joe Reece several great questions about Black Rifle Coffee and its political overtones. Reece was a good interview though he didn't really answer some of the questions; make of it what you will.
A day earlier on the Halftime Report, Jim Lebenthal and Josh Brown clashed when Jim was trumpeting TMO and Josh cut in with "30 times earnings."
Jim responded, "Like Microsoft at 34 times, which I own. So, I'm not sure what your point is, other than to be argumentative which is kind of your shtick."
The end of Jim's comment prompted Judge and Jason Snipe to chuckle (although Stephanie Link remained emotionless). Brown went on to say that he thinks he and Jim "agree, actually" that high-valuation stocks are OK if they're growing earnings.
"There's something in the way you and I interact that usually has a friction to it, Josh, for which I feel bad," Jim said.
Jim added that it may be true that they agree on valuations but they may disagree in that Brown believes "more than I do that the market gets priced right."
What? A day without all the bipartisan regulation coming for Facebook?
On Monday's (11/1) Halftime Report, there were a couple bright spots, such as Adam Parker's succinct "why wouldn't you be" bull call on the stock market and articulate defense of it when Steve Weiss asked about market multiple.
But the best Judge could come up with, as usual, was either 1) The Morgan Stanley guy's weekly promotion or 2) Jim Cramer's CNBC Investing Club or 3) Joe Terranova's stale whiteboard background.
Bryn Talkington bluntly said that whatever the Morgan Stanley guy's talking about is "already priced into the market, or it seems to be."
Judge referred to the Morgan Stanley guy's "narrative that he's put forth most recently." Um, Judge, that's the weekly narrative/update that gets free publicity from you several times a week. (At least Judge wasn't misquoting a recent letter from David Einhorn or informing Dave Tepper that Tepper was welcome to comment on a basis that could be "personal, professional, however you wanna characterize it.")
Bryn Talkington called NOT doing the taper "fiscally irresponsible."
Judge did ask Weiss a great question about the difference between a "trading position" and a "core position" regarding Weiss' favorite stock, MRNA. (This writer has no position in MRNA.)
"Why do you need both," Judge asked Weiss. "What, I mean, I don't understand it."
"It's an opportunity," Weiss tried to explain, before stating, "The core position is so large already that I don't wanna keep, you know, more- keep adding stock to it. It's risk management."
(Sigh.) OK, so if Weiss has (let's just use sample round numbers to make this easy) $1 million in MRNA in his "core" account, but then puts another $100,000 worth of the shares in his "trading" account ... the loss would be felt differently because some of the money is in a separate account??
Does MRNA care which of Weiss' accounts hold the stock?
Mucho mistrust,
love’s gone behind
But have you ever heard of Mike Chapman?
(More on that in a moment.)
Obviously, a lot of folks wish that they'd bought the little-known stock NWINF a week ago, before it experienced a moonshot Thursday (10/28) when Glen Kacher touted the company on CNBC's Halftime Report.
Instantly hitting it big on a stock is indeed a great thrill.
Sometimes, though, success takes time. And effort. As was the case of Blondie's 1978 megahit that still reverberates through pop culture, "Heart of Glass."
It's not Mozart, nor Rousseau. The song is "just a plaintive moan about lost love," explained Deborah Harry in 2013. The song was actually written in 1974, "one of the first songs" of the group, by Harry and bandmate Chris Stein. "We'd tried it as a ballad, as reggae, but it never quite worked," Harry said. The band called it "the disco song." The original title was "Once I Had a Love." Blondie had other hits over the next few years but had yet to reach superstardom.
Then, in one of those landmark moments, lightning struck. Harry recounted that in 1978, "We got this producer, Mike Chapman, who asked us to play all the songs we had. At the end, he said: 'Have you got anything else?' We sheepishly said: 'Well, there is this old one.'"
Like they say, you just never know.
But you can't win if you don't try.
Chapman, producing what would become the landmark "Parallel Lines" album, "started to pull it into focus," said Harry, and his interest in "the disco song" spurred some experimentation by band members with the then-new Roland CR-78 drum machine. Blondie falls under the category of "New Wave," and Harry says people were mad at us for "going disco" with "Heart of Glass."
According to Harry, "Clem Burke, our drummer, refused to play the song live at first. When it became a hit, he said: 'I guess I'll have to.'"
It may have been disco, but the song had an interestingly handled sneer of punk that affected its famous title. Depending on which version you're hearing, you might hear the "a" word. "At first, the song kept saying: 'Once I had a love, it was a gas. Soon turned out, it was a pain in the a--,'" Harry recalled. "We couldn't keep saying that, so we came up with: 'Soon turned out, had a heart of glass.' We kept one 'pain in the a--' in — and the BBC bleeped it out for radio." The "Parallel Lines" version and official published version include that one reference.
That particular word isn't the only curiosity of the lyrics. "Mucho mistrust" ... who would ever think of that? And then the 3 words that come after it in the headline above. How in the world could anyone make magic out of those 5 words together ...
"Heart of Glass" may be a song, but it's also a mesmerizing visual. Harry's performance with a scarf in the official video (here on Youtube), seen on the syndicated hit "Solid Gold," is something like a Marilyn Monroe of the '70s, something all those slick MTV productions that hadn't happened yet would never match. (The video implies that it was filmed at Studio 54, but band members say that's not the case.)
Is the song a celebration of disco ... or a parody of it? That will remain one of its mysteries. Stein said, "I never had an inkling it would be such a big hit, or become the song we'd be most remembered for. It's very gratifying."
What conclusions can be drawn from this? Maybe the value of experimentation. A band that had rejected disco suddenly found, with a little prodding, that its "disco song" was not only pretty good, but its greatest work.
As far as extrapolations to stock-picking ... maybe it's when a "value" investor decides in 2014 to throw a few dollars at this TSLA stock, maybe something will come of it.
Oh yeah, the producer. Chapman's pinnacle may have been "Heart of Glass." Or it may have been one of his hits performed by Suzi Quatro, the sensational '70s soft-rock staple "Stumblin' In." Chapman also claims Exile's "Kiss You All Over." The funny thing about "Parallel Lines" ... it probably should've been a disaster. Chapman was L.A., the band was NYC. Chapman found Blondie lacking in musicianship and, for the most part, hating each other, though talented at songwriting. Harry was apparently moody. Some of the lyrics may have been improvised. Somehow, Chapman and Blondie hit stride together and put together, according to Rolling Stone and others, one of the greatest albums ever made.
If you think you've heard "Heart of Glass" on the radio so many times that it can't possibly do anything more for you, try plugging in the headphones and watching the official Blondie video. That's some kick-ass pop culture.
Why doesn’t AMZN do a reverse split, make the shares $35,000?
Judge on Thursday's (10/28) Halftime Report asked panelists about the possibility of an AMZN split.
Jon Najarian said he's "not heard an awful lot of chatter about that at all," and, "Quite frankly, it's almost like Berkshire at this point where, when the stock's priced this high, people just, you know, they don't wanna get out to have to get back in and have all that slippage in between because of the price of the stock."
Well, we don't understand why an AMZN long would have to "get out" and then "get back in" because of a split, so we assume Najarian is talking about options holders, who apparently survived when TSLA and AAPL split.
Regardless, Doc said they're "buying like crazy" the 3500 AMZN calls.
Josh Brown suggested that the reason AMZN hasn't split is that there could be a belief among management, and it's "a little bit insulting," that a split would mean "you're inviting in a lesser class of shareholder."
Meanwhile, Glen Kacher announced his 2021 Ira Sohn pick, NWINF, which Kacher asserted is "a 4 bagger in 4 1/2 years." It sounds like it's well on the way there, as Judge pointed out the shares rose 100% minutes later.
Liz Young used her Final Trade to tout her new word, "Stagflationtory." We kinda doubt it'll catch on.
Jenny’s calling 2022 as ‘dicey’
A day after Josh Brown had to object to whatever Stephanie Link was saying, Brown did the same to Jenny Harrington.
More on that in a moment.
Joe Terranova opened the show asserting of Big Tech, "If you are not long these names, you're actually short," one of those statements that people like to say that actually means nothing.
But Jenny Harrington countered, "I want to caution people against FOMO," trying to explain why she's owned FB but not MSFT.
Judge told Jenny that people can "bank on" MSFT for the next 5 years and wondered if a couple names touted by Jenny, URI and AXP, present the same assurances.
"It's almost guaranteed growth," Judge insisted of MSFT.
Jenny called that a "tricky statement."
For the market in general, Jenny predicted "a dicey year next year." Interesting how someone can predict something like that but not agree that MSFT is "almost guaranteed" for 5 years.
Jenny also said, "Here's a truism: Innovation is always competed away."
Josh Brown dialed in and spoke about the various strengths of the tech giants and said, "Jenny talks about uh these edges being competed away. Let me know. Because search is essentially a monopoly, and it's been dominant for 20 years now. I don't know that anyone's coming anytime soon to even attempt. ... The idea that some of these edges can be competed away I think has been, uh, repeatedly, uh, beaten up in this era."
Brown credited Ruth Porat, who was basically hired to run 4 earnings calls a year, for being able to "compartmentalize" the things about GOOGL that "nobody really worries about" into a "bucket."
Jim Lebenthal said the reason to stay with BA is because "the airline industry is back in growth mode."
Steve Weiss claimed more orders have been going to Airbus than Boeing. Jim insisted that's "factually (sic redundant) false."
Weiss said Phil LeBeau got a "great interview" with David Calhoun; "it was great because it confirmed everything that I've thought about Calhoun and the stock."
The Boeing debate wasn't bad, but Jim being asked to defend GM again was once again hit-the-mute-button time.
Fan who had the Brady ball probably instantly owes the IRS $18,000
On Tuesday's (10/26) Halftime Report, Judge sounded really interested in procuring soundbites about how This Is The End of Facebook. (This writer is long FB but not enough to matter.)
Jon Najarian was asked to give his usual in-and-out refrain on his position and how options are so much better than the stock; Doc obliged.
Josh Brown said he wasn't going to gloat or do an I Told You So, but, "I have been referring to this company's product as cigarettes." (And Philip Morris continues to sell cigarettes, but government officials are really angry about ... FACEBOOK.)
Nevertheless, "I don't care about the whistleblower stuff," Brown said.
Judge tried to pit Brown and Stephanie Link in a debate on FB, but Brown kept cutting Link off, then Link cut Brown off, and when people are buzzing in from their living rooms, the talking over/dead air doesn't really work.
Steve Weiss dialed in to say he's "happy to be taking profits" in his TSLA calls.
Judge reported that Savita Subramanian is still trying to talk the market down to 4,250.
Judge actually with a straight face referred to "The CNBC Investment Club, uh, which all of you, I hope you all know about that, at this point."
Yes. We do.
Josh Brown said COIN was primed for a move upward, but he didn't expect it to be this much this fast.
Rahel Solomon reported that Tom Brady gave the fan who originally got the 600th TD ball a Bitcoin.
On Monday, a sleepy episode, Judge demanded his panelists opine on tech stocks, then constantly kept telling the panelists he didn't want to hear what they were likely to say.
Amy Raskin tried to argue that all the greatness of Big Tech is already priced in. But Bryn Talkington suggested MSFT's "best days are ahead of them."
Judge mentioned the Morgan Stanley guy again, as he does about every other show. Bryn Talkington actually said, "It's tough to be a strategist (snicker)."
Say Dave, what do you think
of the stock market?
Movie buffs who read this page may remember that scene in "The Candidate," when Bill McKay's campaign has just managed to secure some critical time in a TV studio, and they rush Bill over there, and then Bill (that would be Robert Redford) is unable to read his script because he can't stop cracking up.
We had the same impression watching Dave Tepper fight a smirk throughout his T-shirt-clad, 14-minute appearance on the Halftime Report on Friday (10/22).
Usually, when people aren't too excited about participating in an interview, it's because they're irked about something (um, perhaps that was true for David Einhorn, see below). Tepper by contrast was practically giddy, which was contagious, because we nearly fell out of our chair.
Judge opened by asking, "Do you like the equity market here?"
"You mean like I like you Scott, or- you talking about like on a personal basis, or?"
"Personal, professional, however you wanna characterize it, David," Judge sighed.
"Um, look, I like it as a long-term instrument, that I think everybody needs in their portfolio."
"OK," Judge continued. "Do you like it for the risk-reward right now in stocks, given where valuations are relative to where rates are."
"As a trader- trader, you're asking me, as a trader, or as an investor, Scott?"
"As an- as an investor, David," Judge confirmed.
"As an investor," David affirmed. "Um, Like I- like, you know, I'll use a, a, it's like a Warren Buffett line, you know, it's a great asset for the long term. So, but, uh, I mean look, I mean, I don't think there's any great asset classes right now. There's, you know, people on your show talk about the risk of inflation and, uh, the question is, you know, what the Fed's doing, I guess, how pretty much the Fed said it's gonna taper today, um, you know, online- when people expect it, uh, you know the question is when will they raise interest rates and really what is the underlying inflation and how much is endemic to the, becoming endemic inside the economy. And that's really what we're dealing with right now. So, I mean, if you go down different asset classes, um, the stocks, I mean I don't love stocks, I don't love bonds, I don't love junk bonds, I don't like, you know, you know, it's a question, what's the, uh, what's the best-looking you know investment, vs. other investments when nothing looks that great."
"We've been probably too conservative this year," Tepper admitted at one point.
"My exposure's not high right now, but I still am exposed to stocks," he added.
About crypto, Tepper said, "I think it's a store of value to a certain extent."
Tepper closed, "This is for you, Scott. Special."
Mike Ovitz reminded Judge of "your days in Dallas."
A year ago, it was an ‘enormous tech bubble’ with the top supposedly in on 9/2/2020 (a/k/a Einhorn basically says Judge misquoted him)
Early in Wednesday's (10/20) Halftime Report, David Einhorn told Judge, "I don't know what the Fed should do. I don't- I don't run the Fed."
Which is a little like complaining about the Pittsburgh Steelers calling too many pass plays and then saying "I don't know if they should call more running plays; not my job."
Judge said in a recent Einhorn investor letter, "You suggested that they need to immediately end QE and that they need to quote rapidly increase rates to deal with inflation."
"That's not what I said," Einhorn said. "What I said is their plan is to gradually eliminate QE and to gradually raise- raise rates. So that's- that's what their plan is. I'm just not sure that that's going to be realistic and successful in fighting the level of inflation that we have."
Hmmmm ... it sounds like he agrees with the way Judge described the investor letter to a T.
Curiously, Einhorn was appearing on the show about a year after he last made a splash — his claim of an "enormous tech bubble" in which the top was a month earlier.
(On that show, Judge asked Josh Brown for reax. "At first, I was like, oh no, not another bubble. Another tech bubble! Um, because I'm old enough to remember the last few tech bubbles," Brown said. "And, uh, I was in the audience at Ira Sohn, when David Einhorn unveiled his first bubble basket. And it wasn't in 2016, it was in 2014, it was in April of that year, so we're talking about 6½ years ago, and Amazon was in his bubble basket. He was shorting the stock."
Einhorn began Wednesday's show saying the Fed has to "hope" inflation goes away because it doesn't have the "stomach" to fight it.
Paul Tudor Jones asserted in the morning that inflation is "here to stay"; Judge played the clip. Einhorn said he agreed.
Judge referred to Einhorn as only the "first headliner of the day," evidently so as to not offend Nelson Peltz.
Celebrating ‘10th’ anniversary after 12½ years: Halftime Report debuted on Monday, April 13, 2009
Monday's (10/18) Halftime Report marked, according to Judge, "10 years of Halftime Report on CNBC."
Those types of proclamations always perk up our ears, and in some cases, get the Spider Sense tingling.
Judge was actually referring Monday to the show's "10 years" as an hourlong program.
That began on Monday, Oct. 17, 2011.
The "Fast Money Halftime Report" actually premiered April 13, 2009, around 12:45 p.m. Eastern time, a brief insert of the first hour of Power Lunch. Its "studio" seemed rather improvised. This page estimated that with commercials, it was about a 9-minute soundbite-fest. That tightness wasn't a bad thing, as panelists had to get to the point fast. This page decided then, "The Halftime Report is marked by two regular features — massive short leash for the panelists (they're allowed to say about two sentences before MLee cuts them off) and strange background noise of people shouting, partying, arguing, etc. in the CNBC backstage that somehow is heard just about every day."
On that Halftime debut Monday, Guy Adami said, "I feel like Don Shula." (Apparently because the program was called the "Halftime" Report.)
Eventually — that would be Monday, June 7, 2010 (don't believe everything you see on Wikipedia) — the Halftime Report expanded to a half-hour at 12:30, while "The Strategy Session" of David Faber and Gary Kaminsky launched as a half-hour noon program, the 2 shows meeting/transitioning in the middle of the hour, carving up the remainder of what had been the first hour of Power Lunch.
As this page has suggested many times, many CNBC shows — at least the stock-picking ones — don't need a full hour and would be better if shorter. However, half-hour shows without a dedicated sponsor are rare, and with separate sets for the 60 minutes, they're more costly, so this page credited CNBC for taking a chance on The Strategy Session. (Nowadays, about the only attempts at innovation are renewing the Shark Tank contract or launching Jim Cramer's "CNBC Investing Club" (snicker).)
Melissa Lee hosted the Halftime Report at its inception, adding it to her Fast Money duties, though over the next 2-plus years, Judge often served as guest host of both Halftime and the regular Fast Money.
The last episode of The Strategy Session aired Friday, Oct. 14, 2011. The star guest was Barbara Matthews, and also on hand was Mark Shafir. Looking back on his time as a Wall Street reporter, Faber drew a contrast between entrepreneurs who got megarich creating jobs and those such as John Paulson, who got megarich by betting against people paying their mortgages. Kaminsky said that when he started at J.R.O., the system was, "you eat your own cooking," but by recent years it became "so much of this OPM — other people's money."
(The show airing in the 11 a.m. Eastern hour back then was The Call. Remember that one? It should've been called The Future Fox Business Staff. Its last show was also Oct. 14, 2011.)
As the Halftime Report aired that day, the 14th, Judge briefly hailed the expanded 1-hour show coming Monday, saying "We're gonna bring actionable trades." (Now, he too often brings inactionable strategist calls.)
On that first hourlong day, Monday, Oct. 17, 2011, this page said, "Scott Judge Wapner launched the expanded hourlong Fast Money Halftime Report with a crisp, informative discussion, though there were few new wrinkles."
Back in those times, Fast Money and the Halftime Report featured names such as Joe LaVorgna, Debbie Weinswig, Dan Dicker, Bill Strazzullo and Ronnie Moas and things such as "The Prop Desk..."
So back to the now.
Judge told Carl Icahn on Monday over the phone, "I think you were with us on one of our very first shows."
Had Judge merely looked up this page's archives, he would've seen that Icahn dialed in on Oct. 17, 2011, and said he's not interested in Research in Motion. (Despite covering this program for more than a decade, we weren't asked to take part in the 10-year commemoration, but we get how the drill works.)
On Monday, Icahn told Judge, "I'm glad you've been so successful." However, after Judge asked if Carl's still "pretty well hedged" in the stock market, it led to some dead air as Carl struggled to answer.
Carl went on to bash whatever CEO he's butting heads with in his latest activist move. Then he warned about inflation. Late in the show, Jim Chanos also dialed in and congratulated Judge on 10 years. What he said about China wasn't exactly fresh. Chanos also mentioned his IBM short; we got excited, thinking he would condemn those obnoxious "hybrid" commercials featuring that condescending woman's voice, but all he complained about was the earnings.
Joe likes the word ‘resilient’
Meanwhile on Monday's (10/18) Halftime, Judge opened by asking Pete Najarian if they should focus on the "vulnerability" of stocks or the "resiliency" of stocks. (Zzzzzzzzz.)
Moments later, Joe Terranova claimed it was "the easiest question" Judge would ever ask and that Joe "waited 10 years" (snicker) to hear.
Judge said the Morgan Stanley strategist, who makes a new call every 10 days, is now walking back the correction talk. Judge promised that they'd talk to the strategist and "put him on the spot (snicker)."
Steve Weiss, who just last Wednesday declared he's got "a lot of cash on the sidelines," claimed Monday "the market always bounces off the dips," then Weiss did what the Morgan Stanley guy always does when the trend works against the call, stating stocks are only up at the index level and there's all kinds of "rolling corrections" underneath that supposedly justifies whatever Weiss was advocating recently.
Joe said he ditched MNST in favor of DOCU. That's curious, as DOCU since July doesn't strike us as one of Joe's supposed "quality momentum" plays. (This writer is long DOCU.)
Joe noted S&P 4,545.85 on Sept. 2 and declared that if "we take that out very soon, the bottom's in."
Apparently because of timing with Carl Icahn, Judge actually cut to a commercial at the 9-minute mark.
Joe chortled that on Sept. 1, he bought NFLX at 577, "nobody wanted to own Netflix at that time." That's curious, as noted "value" investor Bill Nygren talked it up on the Halftime Report on Aug. 3.
Joe says ‘certainly’ no bear market in the next 12 months
On Wednesday's (10/13) Halftime Report, Liz Young described the Delta variant as "kinda done and gone."
Young said Washington is "not yet resolved" because they've "kicked the can down the road." That's like saying this week's "Three's Company" is about a misunderstanding.
Sort of echoing Young, Steve Weiss at one point said he's got "a lot of cash on the sidelines, hoping for a massive flush," because he's "very worried about the 3rd quarter" and expects "multiple compression."
But Weiss said he added to FB on the pullback as a "tactical trade." (This writer is long FB.)
Judge's persistent questions about how well tech and semiconductor stocks will hold up got tedious in a hurry. Judge asked Joe Terranova about Larry Fink's prediction of "higher highs" in stocks. Joe said he agrees and that we're "not looking at a bear- the onset of a bear market anytime, uh, certainly, over the next 12 months."
Judge seemed quizzical as to why Joe was talking about bear-market prospects and said, "I'm not suggesting that- that we are."
But Joe said the market can continue to have "a corrective-type of pattern" (sic meant "pullback").
Weiss said he's been adding to DKS and called it a "phenomenal stock." Joe got grilled over MNST. Joe said he bought it at $83.60 on March 5 and predicted then it would top $100. He said it got to $99.89 on Aug. 10, "but unfortunately my egro- my ego and probably too much hubris at the time uh wanting that $100-plus print kept me in the stock."
Joe said he "failed to realize" that rising aluminum "was going to impact margins" and promised to "pay close attention" to the stock over coming days and might even sell it to avoid letting a winning trade become a losing trade. (Note: MNST does not care that Joe bought it months ago at 83.60.) (Note II: If Joe doesn't sell it UNTIL it trades below 84, it's entirely possible it will end up a loss.)
In what might be a show first, Judge told Weiss he could ask Joe a question "if it's serious," but "if it's a joke, I'm going." Weiss responded, "You better go then."
Judge grilled Weiss for adding to FDX though it's been a "dog." Weiss said he thinks margin pain is "temporary" and its valuation is low historically and that the world has moved "exponentially" online. Mike Farr said he added to it also and like Weiss, likes the stock longer-term.
Judge read a viewer question to Weiss about MRNA. Not surprisingly, Weiss heartily endorsed the stock but cautioned about a "possible dislocation" over the next few days as booster-shot rulings are handed out.
Jim sees 2 reopenings, Mike sees 3 reopenings, Joe sees no more than 1 reopening
As the whole world checks its 2011 inbox and hopes there's nothing in it from Jon Gruden ...
Joe Terranova opened Monday's (10/11) lackluster Halftime Report by declaring "the market's gonna rally" because "the megacap equities ultimately, uh, are gonna resume their upward appreciative (snicker) (sic redundant) path."
Jim Lebenthal, however, countered, "Joe knows I love him, but I completely disagree that this is a large-cap tech rally."
Jim pointed out how the pandemic market has rallied without big tech, but Judge suggested that Joe's point is that if tech doesn't stumble, the market can't have a correction or a big drop, which Joe said is 100% correct.
Jim again contended, "The waning of Delta is critically important." Jim claimed that there's "a little bit of hate" about his point about "Reopening 2.0." Jim said that kind of "hate" is great because people will have to play "catch-up."
Judge brought in Mike Santoli, who said it's really "Reopening 3.0" but that he thinks there is a "decent likelihood" of people "hating the rally" as Jim suggests.
Joe curiously said, "I don't believe in multiple reopenings."
Bryn Talkington offered, "I think that higher oil prices are here to stay, mainly because of poor policy errors globally."
Joe said he sold RBLX and put the cash into RSX.
Discussing SBUX, Jim admitted he probably sold NKE too early with a multiple in the upper 20s and saw it go into the upper 30s. (But according to Karen Finerman and Jenny Harrington, multiples only go down, not up.)
Jim reaffirmed he bought WYNN recently a little too soon but still called it a cheap play on China, saying all the value in the stock as of now is in the U.S. operations. "Basically, Las Vegas is packed," Jim said.
Jon Najarian remade the same point he's made about every appearance for 3 weeks running, the one about the circular firing squad in China, and Doc said once the CCP (not the CCCP of the '70s) stops "hammering" tech and other Chinese stocks, there could be "dramatic upside" in these names. (This writer is long BABA.)
In Final Trades, Joe hung a $300 on MSFT, which is basically a rounding error.
Using Facebook supposedly is as dangerous as smoking cigarettes??
Normally this page doesn't delve into print media. But something over the weekend in Barron's happened to catch our eye.
The Tech Trader" column by Eric J. Savitz said this: "There is growing buzz that Facebook is having a Big Tobacco moment, that Facebook is proving to be toxic, like cigarettes."
Seriously? What is this "growing buzz" that Savitz is hearing/reading?
Honestly, we don't really get why this company is so hated. (This writer is long FB, so few shares it barely counts.) CNBC's got a whole crew of guests it can bring on, including Roger McNamee, to wring their hands and tell you how Facebook is ruining the world. Guy Adami will tell Fast Money viewers every other night (not every night, that's the Fed portion) how much he hates Facebook. It's one of those backfill-narrative stories, where critics wait for the next news story to say "See!!!!! That's what I've been saying!!!!! CAMBRIDGE ANALYTICA!!!!!!!!!!"
A week ago, "60 Minutes" aired a curious segment in which a purported "whistleblower" complained about Facebook ... doing things in its own interests.
We wondered, what exactly is this person alleging?
Here's the first prominent quote on the broadcast: "The thing I saw at Facebook over and over again was, there were conflicts of interest between what was good for the public and what was good for Facebook. And Facebook over and over again chose to optimize for its own interests, like making more money."
OK. So maybe an iPhone should cost $800 instead of $1,000, to benefit the public rather than Apple Inc. It already has enough money, doesn't it? (And whatever happened to that Jana-CALSTRS partnership to get Apple to make its phone buttons safer for kids, even leaving Jana's number for Tim Cook to call?) (And the prof who Jana cited who claims the Internet exacts a "Psychic Tax" on young users.)
Or maybe McDonald's should stop serving at 10 a.m. every day. "We've put enough styrofoam in the landfills and enough fat calories in people's bodies for the day." (ITS ADVERTISING JUST MAKES PEOPLE COME BACK FOR MORE!!!!!!!)
Still, we wondered, what, again, exactly is her allegation about Facebook?
Apparently, it is this: "It is optimizing for content that gets engagement, a reaction."
Ah. So there we go. Facebook is not supposed to suggest certain stories about political figures, even if you like to click on them. So we should have Chuck Schumer and Mitch McConnell and Nancy Pelosi and Kevin McCarthy collectively agree on what our news feeds should show us (as soon as they've prevented the government from running out of money).
This page might see greater urgency to Facebook complaints — if every one of them didn't seem like a bid for a handout, typically from state attorney generals who have very little to do.
When Barron's is suggesting that Facebook is as bad for you as cancer, that's when it's Fonzie time.
Jim’s always assuring viewers that back-to-normal is just around the corner
Friday's (10/8) Halftime Report was as sleepy as the jobs report.
Jim Lebenthal offered that the jobs report is "aberrational" to what we're seeing in Delta peak and airline demand.
Judge predicted the report won't "derail" whatever the Fed is going to do.
Bryn Talkington suggested there's a "pretty decent probability" that the bond market is already pricing in the taper.
Jim has sounded a lot of notes of optimism throughout the pandemic; on Friday, discussing the Long Beach port congestion, Jim assured, "Eventually that's gonna work its way out. I can't say if it's 1 month or 6 months."
What if it's 6 years?
It's great that Jim's been insisting for weeks that the Delta variant has peaked. What if it comes back in December. Or what if there's a new variant that does the same thing. And hospital ICUs are jammed yet again.
If nothing else, Judge raked in some revenue; the second half-hour was as chock-ful of commercials as you'll ever see.
Jenny’s right: There
were 95 questions, not 1
On Thursday's (10/7) Halftime Report, Jon Najarian started shaking his head when Judge started reading Marko Kolanovic's note about how the market can withstand $130 oil.
Doc said the country would bring on "historic amounts of production" as oil approaches $100. But Doc cautioned about the price spike in coal and warned about the potential demand for nat gas in the event of a cold winter and stressed that a bunch of people's favorite products are made with petrochemicals in concluding that the markets would not like $130 oil at all.
Judge asked Jenny Harrington what she thought about Kolanovic's note. "There's like 95 questions in that," Jenny chuckled.
"Well there's only one," Judge snapped. "Do you agree with him or not."
"Yes, but you said, Does COVID trip all- trump all," Jenny continued. "I think it already has."
Sarat Sethi advised waiting to buy on the dip.
Jenny Harrington said she sold IPG largely because of ... valuation.
Halftime flashback: Larry Altman in 2014 says markets usually bottom in early October
This time of year — especially during a rocky market — it's helpful to remember one of the more interesting comments in the history of the Halftime Report.
Larry Altman on Oct. 1, 2014, told Judge that markets "usually bottom around the first week and a half, 2 weeks in October, or the first week or 2 weeks in March."
It doesn't happen all the time, but enough that we've taken notice. For example, just last year, stocks struggled in October; the bottom that month wasn't in the first couple weeks but the 30th, which was a virtual retest of September's lows.
And from that point on, it was Katie bar the door.
We surely don't know if the October 2021 market will bottom in the next 10 days or so.
But if we had to bet, we'd say you probably wanna be long before November.
Joe Biden’s ‘beyond guarded’ approach to China trade policy
It had nothing to do with the Halftime Report, but on Monday's (10/4) Power Lunch, Kayla Tausche reported on her interview with "Ambassador" Katherine Tai (we learned from Wikipedia that the United States Trade Representative is accorded the title of "Ambassador") and showed a few painful clips.
Afterwards, Tyler Mathisen told Kayla that Tai's answers seemed "sometimes disarmingly brief" and Tyler wondered if she was "beyond guarded." Kayla said, "She is an extremely guarded individual by nature."
Tyler's on to something. We had never heard Ambassador Tai speak before.
Tai was confirmed by the Senate 98-0, the only unanimous Biden nominee.
But if you're going to grant a television interview, you've got to do better than this.
This page didn't particularly care for Peter Navarro's approach and, at times, said so.
Navarro articulated far more understandable points than whatever the Biden administration is doing.
If this is our China policy, it's not going well.
Wonder where AAPL stock would be if they didn’t have the iPhone
This is almost comical.
Judge on Monday's (10/4) Halftime Report did not bring up Cambridge Analytica, or anything about the implied theory that Barack Obama's Homeland Security Department allowed Russia to rig the election only in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania for Donald Trump while Donald Trump's Homeland Security Department actually blocked this Russian influence, allowing Joe Biden to win ...
Oh yes. Judge actually led off with the latest Facebook controversy (but rememember, "It's different this time"), featuring someone on "60 Minutes" (whatever happened to Brad Katsuyama and Michael Lewis and the new exchange). (This writer is long FB.)
Judge asked Steve Weiss about selling half of his FB stake "first thing" Monday. Weiss said, "Look, I have no idea if the whistleblower is right or wrong. Uh, it seems we're in an environment where everybody's guilty until proven innocent."
"I don't know, the whistleblower has receipts. There's documentation of what the whistleblower said. Right, so let's deal in fact, not fiction," Judge said. (Evidently, Morgan Stanley's weekly correction calls constitute "fact" and not "fiction.")
"Well, we will deal in fact, and you haven't seen what the whistleblower has in her possession, you haven't seen the other side either," Weiss said, predicting that whatever the truth ... and you've NEVER heard this before about Facebook ... advertisers will say "no más."
Joe Terranova told Judge this is different than past FB controversies. And then Joe curiously said, "And I wonder where the stock would be if it did not have Instagram." Well, that's a good question ... imagine GOOGL without YouTube ... imagine Ford without the F-150 ... imagine Moderna without a COVID vaccine ... how damning.
Jon Najarian dialed in to gush about all the FB puts he supposedly bought in recent weeks. Doc said "Facebook is a gamble at this point." Oh yes, it's like Macy's or Palantir now. Doc mentioned the usual CNBC-Facebook-Fright-Refrain, which is that ... Instagram may have to be spun off!!!!! (Maybe Joe Biden will fire Mark Zuckerberg like Barack Obama fired Rick Waggoner!!!!)
Joe said he is looking for "clarity" on the corporate tax rate.
Weiss said he sold PENN at a loss; he said betting stocks are like the cannabis stocks a couple years ago with big jumps and then pullbacks, "there's too much capacity."
Weiss also again defended MRNA — that's fine, it's still easily the Call of the Year and perhaps the greatest call in the history of the show — and said it'd be "idiotic" to spurn a COVID-19 vaccine with the idea of taking Merck's treatment pill instead.
